Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 11, 2026 — Strategic Positioning.

CRUDE OIL UPDATE:

WTI at $64.36. US-Iran tensions driving the rally.

Reports the US may intercept Iranian tankers. Could deploy another carrier strike group if nuclear talks collapse.

OPEC production UP 203,000 bpd to 26.57M bpd. Libya and Nigeria added barrels.

OUR READ: This Iran rally is noise. Geopolitical premiums fade. We saw this in Week 3. Same playbook. Short the rally.

EIA forecasts $52 average. Current price 23% premium. Mean reversion coming.

OUR POSITION: Any push toward $65 is an exit. Target $52.

NATURAL GAS UPDATE:

Henry Hub at $3.13. Bouncing off extreme oversold.

EIA February STEO raised 2026 forecast to $4.30/MMBtu.

Storage ending withdrawal season below 1.9 Tcf — 8% below forecasts. Bullish.

OUR POSITION: Accumulate $3.00-$3.25. Target $4.50+.

Trade the data. Not the headlines.

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