Thursday, July 30, 2026. FLORIDA ENERGY PROFILE. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Florida has negligible crude oil production, effectively zero, not among major U.S. producing states. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Minimal natural gas production, approximately 20 billion cubic feet annually (pre-2015 baseline), less than 1% of U.S. totals. ELECTRICITY GENERATION: Natural gas fuels over 70% of Florida's in-state electricity generation, but relies on pipeline imports, not local production. Net summer capacity approximately 72 gigawatts. REFINERIES: Zero oil refineries in Florida; relies entirely on imported petroleum products via terminals and pipelines. CONSUMPTION VERSUS PRODUCTION: Florida ranks high in energy use; nearly 8 times more energy used than produced. ELECTRICITY GENERATION SHIFT: Natural gas share of power generation rose from 31% (2002) to 75% (2022); oil-fired generation dropped to approximately 1%; all supplied via external sources. END-USE CONSUMPTION: Petroleum dominates end-use (~61%), followed by electricity (~27%) and natural gas (~8%); underscores import dependence. OFFSHORE POTENTIAL: Untapped oil and natural gas deposits may exist in eastern Gulf of Mexico; current federal restrictions limit development; 2014 study projected major economic benefits (jobs, GDP) if opened. 2025-2026 OUTLOOK: Continued reliance on out-of-state supplies; focus on renewables and solar growth; natural gas infrastructure development; no significant local production growth projected. FLORIDA ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil negligible production, zero refineries, entirely import-dependent. Natural gas minimal production, over 70% of electricity generation relies on imports. Electricity natural gas dominates at 75%, oil-fired at 1%, solar and renewables growing. Consumption petroleum 61%, electricity 27%, natural gas 8%, import-dependent economy. Offshore untapped potential in eastern Gulf of Mexico, federal restrictions limit development. Outlook continued imports, renewables focus, solar growth, natural gas infrastructure. Florida is a major energy consumer, not a producer, import-dependent, renewable energy transition underway.

Wednesday, July 29, 2026. CRUDE OIL MARKET UPDATE: WTI trading near $82.30-$82.66 (up sharply +$3.05 to +$3.40; +3.85% to +4.29% for the day). WTI futures (Sep 2026) closed/traded near $82.47-$82.57; intraday highs ~$83.32. Daily performance strong rally reversing from previous close around $79.26. Breaking news driver U.S. crude inventories built again despite disruptions in Strait of Hormuz. Other headlines OPEC+ preparing to halt further output target increases; Saudi Aramco shut 400K bpd refinery after Houthi strike. Geopolitical factors escalating Middle East tensions (Libya protests threatening supply) and Iran-related developments contributing to volatility. Physical market context oil prices ignoring certain warning signs in fundamentals while refined fuels drive much of market dynamics. STRAIT OF HORMUZ TANKER TRAFFIC: Renewed US-Iran conflict and blockade; vessel traffic slumped after US blockade took effect mid-July 2026. Lloyd's List Intelligence (week through Jul 20) 53 vessel transits (down 66% from 157 prior week); tanker and gas carrier crossings fell to 30 from 90. Daily crossings collapse Kpler data showed daily crossings averaging >20 vessels before Jul 15, dropping to 16 on Jul 15, then single digits on Jul 16; S&P Global reported ~40 vessels Jul 17-19 (averaging ~13/day). Broader crisis context shipping traffic largely blocked by Iran since late Feb 2026 following US/Israel strikes; numbers dropped near zero initially; June 17 US-Iran MOU enabled cautious, uneven restart (limited crude oil recovery; LNG/fertilizer largely stalled). Mid-July decline (Jul 13-19/20) Lloyd's List Intelligence tracked 78 transits (down from 174 prior week); non-Iranian-linked ships fell to 25 from 108; tanker transits collapsed to 39 from 85; inbound traffic especially weak. Ongoing blockade and attacks (late Jul) as of Jul 27-28, Windward reported US blockade as active with continued low crossings and incidents (vessels struck/attacked while transiting); US strikes on Iran continued. Recent escalation and freefall Lloyd's List reported tanker traffic in "freefall" and transits collapsing to early-conflict lows by late Jul due to escalating violence against ships and navigation risks (war risk premiums surged). Route and fleet splits traffic (where occurring) split between Iranian northern routes and US-backed options; shadow fleet activity noted; many vessels remain stranded in Gulf. Post-MOU recovery stalled by late Jun/early Jul, any gains from June MOU erased by renewed hostilities; crude flows only partially restarted; overall confidence low. Geopolitical drivers direct attacks on tankers (by Tehran), Houthi-related spillover risks, enforcement actions compounded blockade effects; activity far below normal levels for this critical chokepoint (normally handles ~20-25% of global oil trade). NATURAL GAS MARKET UPDATE: Spot price (Jul 20, 2026) $2.80/MMBtu (up 1.82% from prior day). Recent spot data Jul 17 $2.75; Jul 10 $2.73; Jul 2 $3.34. Futures (late Jul 28) front-month/nearby Henry Hub Natural Gas futures (NYMEX) trading around $2.69-$2.70; specific contracts (expiration late Jul 2026) near $2.64-$2.66. Monthly context (2026 YTD) Jan $7.72, Feb $3.62, Mar $3.04, Apr $2.77, May $2.94, Jun $3.15 (Jul data pending). OPEC+ PRODUCTION OUTLOOK: OPEC+ crude output (Jun 2026) averaged 36.28 mb/d (up ~3 mb/d from May), driven by Gulf producers resuming output as Hormuz flows recovered. IEA estimate (Jun 2026) total OPEC+ reached 32.44 mb/d (up from 30.3 mb/d in May); OPEC 18.39 mb/d; non-OPEC OPEC+ 14.05 mb/d. Country-level (Jun 2026, IEA) Saudi Arabia ~7.34 mb/d; Iraq ~1.96 mb/d; Kuwait ~1.37 mb/d; Russia ~8.86 mb/d. Spare capacity and targets OPEC+ showed substantial effective spare capacity with implied targets reflecting ongoing quotas/voluntary cuts amid post-conflict recovery. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth (2026) OPEC MOMR forecasts ~0.6 mb/d (unchanged), driven by Brazil, US, Canada, Argentina. DoC/NGLs and non-conventional liquids forecast to grow ~0.1 mb/d y/y to average 8.8 mb/d. Demand growth revision OPEC cut 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780K b/d (third consecutive downward revision, down 190K b/d); potential upside for H2 if tensions ease. IEA global supply forecast world oil supply projected to average 102.6 mb/d in 2026 (down 3.7 mb/d y/y due to conflict impacts); potential rebound +7.5 mb/d in 2027 assuming recovery. Geopolitical/production recovery Jun rebound followed Hormuz-related shutdowns; full normalization depends on sustained de-escalation with risks of renewed disruptions. OPEC+ strategy preparing to halt further output target increases. THE READ: Crude WTI near $82.30-$82.66, up +3.85% to +4.29%, strong rally reversing from $79.26, inventories built despite Hormuz disruptions, OPEC+ halting output increases, Saudi Aramco refinery shut after Houthi strike, geopolitical volatility, refined fuels driving market. Gas spot $2.80/MMBtu, up 1.82%, futures $2.69-$2.70, monthly...

Tuesday, July 28, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $79.15 (down ~4.2% intraday; day's range ~$77.81-$82.42). Overall bias Strong Sell; bearish signals. Recent action sharp decline from prior closes near $82; tests of lower supports. TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 28): RSI(14) 40.129 (Sell); Bloomberg WTI 36.04 (Sell). MACD(12,26) -0.57 (Sell); Bloomberg -2.584 (Sell). CCI(14) -172.6 (Sell; deeply negative). Williams %R -73.3 (Sell). Stochastic RSI oversold. Overall Summary Strong Sell (8 Sell, 1 Buy, 1 Neutral from indicators). Moving Averages all 12 MAs (MA5 to MA200, simple and exponential) signal Sell; price below key levels like MA50 (~$81.34-$81.44). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.85 (micro-support Elliott Wave context; potential for further tests lower), $78.03 (S1 Classic Pivot), $77.40 (S2 Classic Pivot), EMA50 ~$81-$84 range (recent sessions). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $79.07 (R1 Classic Pivot), $82-$89 (mid-July trading range). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: Oversold conditions and potential EMA support could lead to consolidation or relief bounces; bounce attempts amid pauses in strikes/news flow; defensive positioning near $82. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.66-$2.74/MMBtu (down ~3.7-3.9% intraday; 3-month low). CME NGU26 contract 2.739 (down 0.049 or -1.76%). Monthly decline exceeded 16%. Recent closes earlier in week ~$2.88-$2.92. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.75-$2.77 (recently tested/breached), $2.50-$2.21 (lower historical zones), $2.66-$2.74 (current trading range 3-month low). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $3.00 (psychological/technical level), $3.40+ (higher resistance). MARKET DRIVERS: Strong U.S. Lower 48 production (~110.6 bcfd); inventories ~6%+ above five-year average; LNG feedgas flows softening due to maintenance; downside pressure from oversupply. TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Rangebound or pressured lower short-term; prices remain under pressure from fundamentals. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 17, 2026; RELEASED JUL 23): Total Lower 48 working gas 3,056 Bcf. Net change +32 Bcf injection (from 3,024 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 16 Bcf (-0.5%) below same week 2025 (3,072 Bcf). Five-year average comparison 183 Bcf (+6.4%) above 2021-2025 average of 2,873 Bcf. REGIONAL BREAKDOWN: East +17 Bcf to 631 Bcf (0.3% below year-ago; +2.4% vs. 5-year avg.). Midwest +17 Bcf to 766 Bcf (+3.0% vs. year-ago; +5.9% vs. 5-year avg.). South Central +2 Bcf to 1,105 Bcf (-4.7% vs. year-ago; +3.4% vs. 5-year avg.); salt caverns -7 Bcf, nonsalt +9 Bcf. Pacific -5 Bcf to 314 Bcf (+5.7% vs. year-ago; +18.9% vs. 5-year avg.). Mountain unchanged at 240 Bcf (+0.8% vs. year-ago; +19.4% vs. 5-year avg.). MARKET CONTEXT: +32 Bcf injection slightly below some consensus estimates (~34 Bcf) but within broader 29-37 Bcf range. Overall total storage remains within five-year historical range. THE READ: Crude WTI near $79.15, Strong Sell, RSI 40.129, MACD -0.57, all moving averages Sell, support $80.85/$78.03/$77.40, resistance $79.07/$82-$89, oversold conditions, potential for consolidation or relief bounces. Gas Henry Hub near $2.66-$2.74, down 3.7-3.9% intraday, 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77/$2.50-$2.21, resistance $3.00/$3.40+, strong production, inventories elevated, LNG maintenance softening feedgas flows, downside pressure. Storage 3,056 Bcf, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East +17 Bcf, Midwest +17 Bcf, South Central +2 Bcf, Pacific -5 Bcf, Mountain unchanged, total storage within five-year range. WEEK 30 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude Strong Sell, RSI 40, MACD negative, all MAs Sell, support $80.85/$78.03, resistance $79.07, oversold, consolidation or relief bounce potential. Gas near 3-month low, support $2.75-$2.77, resistance $3.00, strong production, elevated inventories, LNG maintenance, downside pressure. Storage elevated, +32 Bcf injection, -0.5% year-ago, +6.4% five-year average, East and Midwest strong builds, Pacific drawdown. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Friday, July 24, 2026. SENEGAL ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Senegal emerging as significant offshore oil and gas producer with Sangomar oil project and Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project. SANGOMAR OIL PROJECT: Operated by Woodside Energy; Senegal's first major offshore oil project (formerly SNE field); located ~100 km south of Dakar. First oil Jun 2024. H1 2026 PRODUCTION: 17.9M barrels. Monthly outputs ~2.8-3.1M barrels (e.g., 3.1M in Jan/Mar/May; 2.8M in Feb; 2.9M in Apr/Jun). Monthly avg ~3M barrels/month (aligns with prior year avg; 36.2M barrels total in 2025). CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION: Exceeded 50M barrels by Dec 2025. CAPACITY: Operating near/at nameplate capacity (~100,000 bbl/d) for sustained periods. CONTRIBUTION TO WOODSIDE: Part of Woodside's overall 2025 production of 198.8 MMboe. EXPANSION POTENTIAL: Woodside and Senegal's Petrosen discussing potential Phase 2 development that could add ~250M barrels of recoverable oil resources. NATURAL GAS: Sangomar remains primarily oil project; associated gas volumes noted but not yet primary output; natural gas production expected at later stage. GREATER TORTUE AHMEYIM LNG PROJECT: Separate natural gas development (joint Senegal/Mauritania project); has its own production ramp-up. BROADER CONTEXT: Senegal's offshore oil and gas era emerging as significant producer with Sangomar and GTA projects. THE READ: Sangomar oil 17.9M barrels H1 2026, monthly avg 3M barrels, operating at nameplate capacity 100K bbl/d, cumulative production exceeded 50M barrels, Phase 2 expansion potential 250M barrels. Natural gas Sangomar associated gas not yet primary output, GTA LNG project separate development, production ramp-up underway. SENEGAL ENERGY THESIS: Sangomar oil project ramping toward full capacity, Phase 2 expansion potential significant, associated gas production expected later, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project separate development, Senegal emerging as significant offshore producer, long-term growth trajectory strong, near-term focus on Sangomar optimization and Phase 2 FID. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 23, 2026. GUATEMALA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Guatemala has minimal domestic crude oil and natural gas production and is net energy importer. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current production Mar 2026 5.10K bbl/d (down slightly from 5.20 in Feb 2026). 2024 baseline ~6,217 bbl/d (ranks ~#97 globally). Historical context long-term avg ~11.1K bbl/d (1984-2026); peak 27K bbl/d (2002); recent low 1.7K bbl/d (late 2023). PROVEN RESERVES: 88.3M barrels (2025; #73 globally); equivalent to ~1.9 years of domestic consumption at 2024 rates. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Annual production 3,276,000 cubic meters (2026 data); ranks #93 globally (very low volume). Role in power generation increasing due to availability, flexibility, lower emissions vs. coal/oil. OIL CONSUMPTION: 2024 consumption ~124,149 bbl/d (#70 globally). Daily deficit ~118K bbl/d (consumption far exceeds production). OVERALL SECTOR PROFILE: Net energy importer produces small fraction of needs, relies heavily on imports. No major new production surges reported for 2025-2026. Regional context broader LAC natural gas production showed growth in early 2026; Guatemala-specific contributions remain negligible. THE READ: Crude oil 5.1K bbl/d, down from 6.2K in 2024, proven reserves 88.3M barrels, 1.9 years of consumption, long-term decline from 27K peak in 2002. Natural gas 3.3M cubic meters annually, minimal production, growing role in power generation. Consumption 124K bbl/d, 118K bbl/d daily deficit, net importer. GUATEMALA ENERGY THESIS: Crude oil production minimal and declining, proven reserves limited, natural gas production negligible, oil consumption far exceeds production, net energy importer, no major new production projects reported, long-term structural energy deficit. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Wednesday, July 22, 2026. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. BC is Canada's leading natural gas producer and minor crude oil producer; emerging as major LNG exporter. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: BC natural gas 2025 7.4 Bcf/d (up 4.8% YoY; largest provincial increase). BC's share Canadian gas production ~39-40% (2025). BC's share growth from ~13% in 2000 to 40% in 2025 (more than doubled since 2010). National marketable gas ~18.8 Bcf/d (2026). MONTNEY FORMATION: Accounts for ~87% of producing wells and 86.9% of 2021 production; ~87% of BC gas. STATISTICS CANADA (MARCH 2026): Marketable natural gas production rose 5.6% YoY nationally to 755.1M gigajoules; BC contributed largest increase (+13.8% YoY). BC GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH: Rose 28% in five years to ~2021; 136% since 2005. Recent growth >2.5 Bcf/d since 2018. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: BC crude oil minimal (~0.1-0.3M bbl/d range). National crude oil edged up 0.2% nationally (Statistics Canada March 2026). LNG EXPORTS: LNG Canada Phase 1 (Kitimat) 14 MTPA facility; first export cargo loaded Jun 30, 2025; Train 2 entered production Nov 2025; ramping toward full Phase 1 capacity (1.84 Bcf/d) into 2026. LNG CANADA PHASE 2: Joint venture participants approved funding in 2026 for potential FID by year-end; project would double capacity to 28 MTPA; designated "project of national interest". FEDERAL-PROVINCIAL ACCELERATION AGREEMENT (JUL 2026): Canada and BC signed Cooperative Prosperity Agreement to fast-track permitting/financing/construction of four priority LNG projects: LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lisims LNG, Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG. WOODFIBRE LNG: Near Squamish; 2.1 MTPA project under construction; expected online 2027. CEDAR LNG: Kitimat; floating LNG facility (3 MTPA); positive FID 2024; early construction underway; targeted in-service late 2028. KSI LISIMS LNG: Proposed 1.6-1.8 Bcf/d project; FID expected early 2026; designated "project of national interest". TILBURY LNG: FortisBC facility exports small volumes; Phase 2 expansion (up to 2.5 MTPA) in planning/approvals; potential completion ~2028. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LNG exports (led by LNG Canada) projected to boost BC GDP by ~$8B/year; natural gas royalties rising to $1.2B in 2026-27. GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY 2026: Forecast to rise ~7% (~40 bcm) with contributions from Canada (BC projects), U.S., Qatar; expected to ease market tightness/support Asian demand growth. MARKET POSITIONING: BC LNG targets Asian markets with West Coast delivery advantage; high costs (feed gas + pipeline tolls) make projects sensitive to prices below ~$7-9/MMBtu; oversupply risks noted for late 2020s. THE READ: Natural gas 7.4 Bcf/d, up 4.8% YoY, 40% of Canadian production, Montney driving growth, crude oil minimal. LNG exports LNG Canada Phase 1 ramping, Phase 2 FID targeted year-end, four priority projects accelerated via federal-provincial agreement, Woodfibre 2027, Cedar 2028, Ksi Lisims FID early 2026. Economic impact $8B/year GDP boost, $1.2B natural gas royalties 2026-27. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production leading Canadian growth, Montney Formation driving output, LNG Canada Phase 1 operational, Phase 2 expansion approved, four priority LNG projects accelerated, Asian market focus, high cost sensitivity, long-term oversupply risks, near-term growth trajectory strong. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI trading near $81.90-$82.20 (Sep 2026 contract). Recent momentum bullish; strong buy signals on moving averages. Price action tested/breached ~$79 level in mid-July. KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $83.26-$83.38 (Pivot Point 1st Resistance/R1 Classic/Fibonacci), $83.91-$84.60 (R2/1-month high area), $84.73-$85.08 (2nd Resistance/price 2 SD resistance), $87.40 (3rd Resistance Pivot), $88.51 (14-day RSI at 70%). KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $80.59-$80.78 (Pivot Point/S2-S3 area Classic/Fibonacci), $79.12 (1st Support Pivot), $76.45-$76.54 (2nd Support/9-day MA crossover area), $74.98 (3rd Support Pivot), $67.12 (13-week/1-month low longer-term). TECHNICAL INDICATORS (JUL 20): RSI(14) 51.712 (Neutral), MACD(12,26) 0.23 (Buy), Overall Technical Summary Strong Buy (11 buy signals from moving averages; 6 buy from indicators), Moving Averages Majority Buy (MA5, MA10, MA50, MA100, MA200 all Buy; one Sell on MA20 simple), Stochastic(9,6) 66.444 (Buy), ADX(14) 32.867 (Buy; indicates trend strength), Williams %R -42.577 (Buy). ADDITIONAL CONTEXT: TradingView/analyst ideas highlight zones near $76.50-$77.20 as notable supports; upside targets around $87.50+ in bullish scenarios; pivot points and moving averages (e.g., 40-day MA) provide dynamic levels. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub trading near $2.84-$2.86/MMBtu (front-month NGQ26 or similar). Recent spot ~$2.83/MMBtu. KEY SUPPORT LEVELS: $2.80-$2.83 (immediate support; recent daily lows; key floor), $3.00 (psychological/technical support; widely referenced critical level; major floor with buyers active), $3.05-$3.14 (support cluster; pivot points and channel bottoms). KEY RESISTANCE LEVELS: $2.90-$2.91 (recent highs; short-term ceiling in intraday ranges), $3.13-$3.23 (nearby contract-specific pivots and prior reaction highs), $3.38-$3.40 (first notable upside barrier; crucial resistance), $3.47-$3.53 (Fibonacci resistance; 38.2% retracement and pivot points), $3.60-$3.65 (prior swing highs; 50% Fib retracements; proximity to longer-term moving averages), $3.62-$4.05 (200-day EMA zone and 50-day MA targets; potential upside magnets if momentum builds). TECHNICAL SIGNALS: Indicators showing "Strong Sell" bias recently; price consolidating near lower levels; potential for volatility around storage reports and weather. LONGER-TERM CONTEXT: 2026 EIA average projection near $3.60; front-month futures highly volatile. EIA WEEKLY NATURAL GAS STORAGE REPORT (WEEK ENDING JUL 10, 2026; RELEASED JUL 16): Working gas in storage 3,024 Bcf (Lower 48 states). Weekly change net injection of +41 Bcf (from 2,983 Bcf prior week). Year-over-year comparison 21 Bcf (0.7%) below same week 2025. Five-year average comparison 181 Bcf (6.4%) above five-year (2021-2025) average of 2,843 Bcf. Prior week (ending Jul 3; released Jul 9) 2,983 Bcf after +61 Bcf injection. MARKET CONTEXT: +41 Bcf print within typical consensus range (~38-45 Bcf); roughly in line with surveys; ended short streak of larger-than-expected builds. PRICE REACTION: NYMEX August contract traded near $2.85-$2.92/MMBtu in immediate aftermath; front month in lower range after breaking below $3.00. BROADER INVENTORY OUTLOOK (EIA STEO JUL 2026): Inventories remained above five-year average through much of forecast period due to record production; end-October 2026 working gas projected at ~3,966 Bcf (5% above average). FUNDAMENTALS: Production eased slightly; LNG feedgas flows impacted by maintenance (e.g., Freeport); weather supported power-sector demand. REPORT SCHEDULE: Weekly releases Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next after Jul 16 would be Jul 23 (covering week ending Jul 17). THE READ: Crude WTI near $82, strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$83.38/$84.73-$85.08/$87.40, support $80.59-$80.78/$79.12/$76.45-$76.54, bullish momentum intact. Gas Henry Hub near $2.84-$2.86, support $2.80-$2.83/$3.00, resistance $2.90-$2.91/$3.38-$3.40/$3.60-$3.65, strong sell bias, consolidating near lower levels. Storage 3,024 Bcf, +41 Bcf injection, 0.7% below year-ago, 6.4% above five-year average, inventories elevated, record production supporting builds. WEEK 29 TECHNICALS THESIS: Crude strong buy signals, resistance $83.26-$85.08, support $80.59-$76.45, bullish momentum, upside targets $87.50+. Gas support $2.80-$3.00, resistance $3.38-$4.05, strong sell bias, consolidating, volatility around storage and weather. Storage elevated inventories, record production, end-October projection 3,966 Bcf, 5% above average. Trade the charts, respect the levels.

Monday, July 20, 2026. WEEK 29 OPENS. Twenty-nine weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI crude oil surging. Front-month futures Aug 2026 CLQ6 ~$82.47 (up $3.52 or +4.46%). Sep 2026 CLU6 ~$81.77-$83.42 (up ~$3.50 or +4.46% range). Recent session gains ~$81.78 (up $3.50 or +4.47%) on Jul 17; extended to ~$82.49-$84.21 by Jul 19. Intraday/recent trading range highs near $85.39, lows ~$83.61; prices $84.20-$84.64 in late Jul 19 updates (+~2%). Weekly performance notable gains; strongest weekly advance in months; prices back above $80. PRIMARY DRIVER: Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities; attacks impacting tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz; supply disruption fears. MARKET CONTEXT: Oil prices rose on renewed geopolitical risk premium; Brent also seeing strength (levels above $90). STRAIT OF HORMUZ STATUS: Normal capacity ~20M bbl/d (~20% of global seaborne crude/condensate trade; ~25% of world seaborne oil trade). RECENT DISRUPTIONS: Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in July slowed shipments again after partial post-ceasefire recovery. Traffic levels only 11 vessels transited Jul 12 (lowest since mid-June); traffic "throttled" or at a "crawl". IRAN'S POSITION: Declared strait an "unbreakable red line"; warned against U.S. interference; threatened "long and painful strikes" or destruction of regional infrastructure if attacks resume. SHIPPING RESPONSES: Major operators (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd) and oil majors suspended/halted transits earlier; some activity restarted post-June MOU/ceasefire but faces renewed caution. PARTIAL RECOVERY POST-JUNE: U.S.-Iran MOU/ceasefire around mid-June enabled some resumption (e.g., Saudi shipments ~34M barrels since Jun 17); flows remain well below pre-crisis levels. IMPACT ON GULF CRUDE EXPORTS: Exports jumped in July amid efforts to clear inventories; shipments slowed due to renewed hostilities; risk premiums on Gulf grades risen. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pre-crisis (1H 2025) averages ~20.9M bbl/d total oil flows; crude/condensate ~14.7M bbl/d. 2026 crisis caused largest oil market disruption in history; traffic dropped >90% at peaks. GEOPOLITICAL RISK OUTLOOK: Shipping risk downgraded from "extreme" to "severe" post-June MOU; remains uncertain with potential for sporadic incidents; Iran retains capabilities to disrupt via asymmetric means. OPEC+ PRODUCTION/DEMAND: OPEC+ crude oil production Jun 2026 36.28M bbl/d (up ~3M bbl/d from May levels) as Gulf producers resumed output halted by Hormuz closure following U.S.-Iran interim agreement. 2026 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Lowered to 780,000 b/d (third consecutive downward revision; down 190,000 b/d from prior estimate) reflecting Iran war impact. 2027 OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST: Raised to 1.94M bbl/d (up 210,000 b/d from previous outlook) citing potential stabilization. GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY 2026: Projected to have declined significantly due to Middle East disruptions (IEA estimates ~3.9M bbl/d drop to ~102M bbl/d range); partial offsets from non-OPEC+ gains/Atlantic Basin exports. NON-DOC LIQUIDS SUPPLY GROWTH 2026: ~1.1M bbl/d driven mainly by U.S., Brazil, Canada. DOC CRUDE DEMAND 2026: Expected to reach ~42.7M bbl/d (up ~0.2M bbl/d from 2025). OPEC+ OUTPUT MONITORING: Significant month-on-month gains in June tied to Hormuz recovery; full normalization faces operational/political hurdles (e.g., demining). BROADER CONTEXT: Reduced geopolitical tensions potentially supporting economic growth/oil demand in H2 2026; OPEC viewing smaller consumption impact than some other forecasters (e.g., IEA). NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub spot prices recent closes hovering near $2.90/MMBtu. EIA monthly averages 2026 Jan $7.72, Feb $3.62, Mar $3.04, Apr $2.77, May $2.94, Jun $3.15. Jul data pending; next release ~Jul 22. CME Henry Hub futures NGQ26 prompt ~$2.888 (as of Jul 19; down ~0.8%). RECENT DAILY SPOT PRICES: Jul 13 $2.83, Jul 10 $2.73, Jul 9 $3.17, Jul 8 $3.13, Jul 7 $3.13. Markets Insider daily closes Jul 2026 Jul 17 close ~$2.92 (high $2.93, low $2.84), Jul 16 close ~$2.89, Jul 15 close ~$2.92, earlier days $2.85-$2.95 range. CONTEXT: Spot prices published with short lag (typically few days); Jul 20 values not yet available; futures/recent closes hovered near $2.90/MMBtu. THE READ: Crude WTI surging to $82-$84 on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, geopolitical risk premium elevated, OPEC+ production recovering but demand growth forecast lowered. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas Henry Hub near $2.90, spot prices lagging futures, contango structure intact, accumulation zone holding. WEEK 29 THESIS: Crude geopolitical premium driving rally, Strait of Hormuz remains critical flashpoint, OPEC+ recovering but demand growth slowing. Support $80, resistance $85-$86. Gas spot near $2.90, futures contango intact, accumulation zone holding, target $3.50 for year. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, July 17, 2026. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Uzbekistan is major natural gas producer and declining crude oil producer. Shifted from net exporter to increasingly import-dependent. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 9.6 bcm (15% drop from 11.3 bcm Q1 2025). First five months 2026 15.8 bcm (down from 18.4 bcm same period 2025; ~14% decline or ~2.6 bcm drop). January 2026 3.7 bcm (down 7.5% YoY). 2026 FULL-YEAR TARGET: 40.2 bcm (planned). 2025 FULL-YEAR MARKETED PRODUCTION: 40.4 bcm (OPEC data). EXPORT REVENUES/IMPORT SPENDING: Export revenues Q1 2026 $36.7M (down sharply from $94.3M Q1 2025). Import spending Q1 2026 $360.5M on natural gas imports (up 2.2x YoY). RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES: Expected to rise to just over 10 bcm in 2026 (from 7 bcm in 2025; >40% increase) routed via Kazakhstan through Central Asia-Center system. GLOBAL RANKING: ~17th in natural gas production (mid-40s bcm range annually). TREND: Shifted from long-time net exporter, relying increasingly on imports due to aging fields, rising domestic demand, declining output. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current 29,000 bbl/d (March 2026; unchanged from prior months). Record low 29,000 bbl/d reached Aug 2025. Long-term avg since 1993 ~65,000 bbl/d. 2024 PRODUCTION: 46,122 bbl/d. Q1 2026 OUTPUT (TONS): 157,300 tons (down from 160,800 tons Q1 2025). January 2026 54,100 tons (1.8% decline YoY). PROVEN RESERVES: 594M barrels (2025); ranks #46 globally; ~0.034% of world reserves. NEW EXPLORATION POTENTIAL: Ustyurt region estimated 100M tons of oil + 35 bcm of gas; projects targeting up to 1M tons bitumen oil production by 2025, larger long-term output. PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION: Bukhara-Khiva ~70% of output historically. NEW PARTNERSHIPS: New production sharing agreements/seismic work (e.g., with BP/SOCAR in 2026) aim to boost future output; near-term figures show continued decline. PRODUCTION TREND: Trended downward from peaks in late 1990s. THE READ: Natural gas 9.6 bcm Q1 2026, down 15% YoY, export revenues collapsed, import spending up 2.2x, Russian imports surging, structural shift from exporter to importer. Crude oil 29,000 bbl/d record low, down from 65,000 avg since 1993, proven reserves 594M barrels, new exploration potential in Ustyurt, near-term decline trend. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production declining sharply, export revenues collapsing, import dependency rising, Russian pipeline gas surging, crude oil at record lows, structural shift from exporter to importer, new exploration potential offers long-term upside but near-term headwinds persist. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Thursday, July 16, 2026. MEXICO ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Mexico is a major crude oil producer and net natural gas importer. Energy sector dominated by Pemex (state-owned petroleum company). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 1.652M bpd (up 38k from Q1 2025). March 2026 1.745M bbl/d (up from 1.736M Feb 2026). 2026 government target 1.8M bpd (facing significant challenges/potential delays). Finance ministry forecast ~1.78M bpd in 2026. 2025 avg ~1.6M bpd. Mid-2025 Aug ~1.64M bpd. KEY CRUDE OIL FIELDS: Maloob, Ixachi, Zaap, Ayatsil, Quesqui. S&P GLOBAL ASSESSMENT: Questions feasibility of 1.8M bpd target; cites ongoing operational issues/need for continued government support. 2026 INVESTMENT PLAN: ~425B pesos (~$21B; 34% increase) to Pemex targeting 1.8M bpd crude/4.5 Bcf/d natural gas through 2030. REFINING: Crude refining rose 22.2% YoY in Q1 2026 to 1.141M bpd. BROADER CONTEXT: Long-term decline from historical peaks; efforts focused on new fields, mixed contracts, attracting private investment. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 wet/hydrocarbon gas 3.925 Bcf/d (up 12% or +423 MMcf/d YoY). Dry gas ~2.3 Bcf/d (recently; projected to stay near 2.299-2.302 Bcf/d in 2025-2026). Q2 2025 3.592 Bcf/d (down ~139 MMcf/d YoY); dry gas from plants 1.615 Bcf/d (down 12% YoY). 2025 FULL-YEAR OUTPUT: ~3.67 Bcf/d total; dry gas ~1.7 Bcf/d. DOMESTIC DEMAND/IMPORT RELIANCE: Domestic demand ~9 Bcf/d (or higher). Domestic production share only ~25%; ~75% imported (mainly via U.S. pipelines). U.S. EXPORT FORECASTS TO MEXICO: ~6.83 Bcf/d in 2025 (up from 6.46 Bcf/d in 2024); continued strength/records expected into 2026 due to Pemex output constraints. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pemex dry gas production declined from ~5 Bcf/d in 2010 to ~2.3 Bcf/d recently. LONGER-TERM TARGETS: >4 Bcf/d by 2030 (potentially up to 8.6 Bcf/d with unconventional development). KEY NATURAL GAS FIELDS: Bakté, Ixachi. EXPORT POSITION: Mexico net importer; minimal natural gas exports. THE READ: Crude 1.65-1.75M bpd, 1.8 target at risk, refining up 22%, investment plan in place, long-term decline trend. Gas 3.9 Bcf/d wet, 2.3 dry, 75% imported from U.S., Pemex output constraints driving record U.S. exports to Mexico. MEXICO ENERGY THESIS: Crude production stable but below target, refining gains supporting domestic supply, natural gas heavily import-dependent, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico at record levels, long-term structural challenge for Pemex. Trade the data, not the headlines.