Friday, September 19, 2026. Vietnam: declining domestic crude ~8.2M tonnes annually, Jan-Apr 2026 2.9M tonnes (+14.4% YoY, field depletion). Oil imports Jan-Apr 2026 3.8M tonnes (-23%, Kuwait down sharply, diversifying). Crude sources: domestic/US (ExxonMobil/Chevron)/West Africa/Russia (ESPO/Sokol). Gas production ~8 bcm 2025, target >20 bcm 2034 (Ca Voi Xanh/Block B). Upstream market USD 2.82B 2025, projected USD 3.91B 2031 (CAGR 5.57%). LNG scaling: Thi Vai (PV GAS) 1 mtpa current (expanding 3 mtpa, 1.5 GW power supply), pursuing 2nd 5-yr contract 250k-450k Mt (Thi Vai, Jan 2027 start post-Shell 2027-2031), Cai Mep (Hai Linh) 3 mtpa operating fully commissioned ramped (ownership→Nebula/AG&P), Hai Lang 1.5 mtpa, Quynh Lap 1.15 mtpa (construction May 2026, target 2030), Vung Ang 1-3 mtpa phase 1 (2029-30+), Son My 4.8+ mtpa phased, Bac Lieu 2 mtpa floating, N. Vietnam/Hai Phong 1.2 mtpa proposed, Long An/Ca Na/others various. LNG-to-power: Govt 22.5 GW target (current 1.6 GW). T&T-TotalEnergies: USD 1.5B Long Son LNG-fired (1,500 MW Ho Chi Minh). Hai Lang: 1,500 MW linked terminal (T&T/South Korea consortium). Quynh Lap: 1,500 MW power (SK Innovation/PV Power). PDP VIII: flexible LNG-to-power/DPPAs. Dung Quat Refinery (BSR Petrovietnam, Quang Ngai): designed 6.5 Mt/yr (140k-148k b/d), 2026 record target 8.3 Mt highest since 2009, first 7mo 4.76 Mt (106% target, 124% capacity), crude diversified (domestic/US/W. Africa/Russia) 3+ mo mid-2026. Products: RON95/E5/E10 gasoline/diesel/Jet A-1/LPG. BSR-BF biofuels: 100% capacity mid-Apr (~330 m³/d E100 ethanol). Expansion USD 1.5-1.8B (Hyundai/Technip bids) 171k-190k b/d Euro 5, site prep 50% June 2026, EPC Aug 2027, ops ~2028. Revenue target VND 154T (~USD 5.9B) 2026 (+7% YoY), Q1 revenue 41.28T VND profit 3.35T. Cumulative >USD 10B state budget 2009+. Nghi Son 2nd refinery 200k b/d, combined support domestic. Russia: interest expand LNG/refined products supplies Vietnam. International: Russia/TotalEnergies/S. Korea partnerships. Vietnam: declining domestic crude/gas, LNG-to-power 22.5 GW target scaling, Dung Quat record 8.3 Mt 2026 (124% capacity), biofuels 100%, expansion 171k-190k b/d 2028, BSR revenue 5.9B USD target, Nghi Son 200k b/d, Russia expanding supplies.

Vietnam: domestic decline, LNG surge, refinery powerhouse, geopolitical partner.

Thursday, September 18, 2026. Slovenia: zero domestic crude production zero bpd, zero gas production, entirely import-dependent (52% energy dependency). Oil consumption ~4.4-4.5M tonnes annually, sources Saudi Arabia (27% 2025), Italy, Greece, ~36% total energy consumption. Gas ~1 bcm annually all imported Russia/others. Refining zero (closed 1998-2001 Lendava refinery). Product imports ~4.4M tonnes. Retail fuel: Petrol (largest) + MOL/INA ~81% combined market. 2026 supply disruptions Iran conflict/cross-border stockpiling → 50L/day purchase limits. Hungary-Slovenia-Italy interconnector gas pipeline: ~1.24 bcm/yr capacity, 2026 commissioning, diversify away Russian gas. LNG: Croatia Krk terminal capacity booking 2027+. Renewables ~25% gross final consumption 2024 (25.1% 2023), trajectory 28.4% 2025, 30.2% 2027, 33% target 2030. Electricity mix recent 2025-26: nuclear 40%, hydro 25%, solar >10%, fossils 20%, low-carbon 79%. RES electricity: 6,254 GWh 2024, projected 7,066 2026, 9,462 2030. Hydro: HSE >3,300 GWh/yr, hybrid solar-hydro advancing. NECP (Integrated National Energy Climate Plan): 55.4% RES electricity 2030 (44.9% 2026), 33% renewables overall consumption 2030. New renewable energy law (EU Directive 2023/2413 transpose): simplified permitting/tenders, solar/hydro/geothermal/biogas/biofuels support, green hydrogen (≥100 MW electrolyzers 2030 target). Policy: Recovery Resilience Plan RES/grid/efficiency, Modernisation Fund solar+battery. Japan hydrogen memo Sept 2026: supply chains/technology/infrastructure/grid-gas integration ELES/Plinovodi. Monthly 2026 energy stats: provisional fluctuations electricity generation (nuclear/hydro/solar-wind), gas/petroleum products supply. Total consumption: long-term decline, oil/gas key imports vs. growing RES/nuclear. Slovenia: zero production, zero refining, 52% energy import dependent, oil 36% consumption, gas 1 bcm all imports, retail 81% duopoly (Petrol/MOL/INA), 2026 Iran-driven shortages, Hungary-Slovenia-Italy 1.24 bcm interconnector 2026 commissioning, LNG Krk 2027+, renewables 25% (target 33% 2030), electricity nuclear 40%/hydro 25%/solar 10%/fossil 20%, RES electricity 6,254 GWh 2024 to 9,462 2030, new law simplified renewables, 100+ MW hydrogen electrolyzers 2030, Japan hydrogen partnership Sept 2026.

Slovenia: Europe's renewable transition anchor, Russia-import hostage.

Wednesday, September 17, 2026. Panama: zero domestic crude production zero bpd, zero gas production, zero refining capacity (closed 2003). Import dependent all products (~3.6M tonnes 2024, 64-68% final/primary consumption). Trans-Panama Pipeline: 131 km, 36-40" diameter, Chiriquí Grande (Caribbean) to Charco Azul (Pacific), 860k bpd capacity, interoceanic bypass, VLCC overflow route, ~10M barrels/month. Sept 2026: Panama completed 100% ownership acquisition Petroterminal de Panamá (PTP) operator, ~191.7M dollar investment. Panama Canal Q2 2026: ~3.2M bpd crude/condensate/products (94% petroleum ~3M bpd), ~600 Mcf/d LNG. Sept 2026 drought restrictions: 34 vessels/day early Sept, 32 starting Sept 15 (9 Neopanamax+23 Panamax), 34% rainfall below normal May-Aug (El Niño). Canal normally 36-40 transits/day unrestricted. Record slot auction: South Korean LPG tanker (G. Spirit SK Gas) paid 5.3M dollar Sept 1 slot (prev record 4.6M or 4M), avg prices rose from ~55k earlier. Further cuts possible Dec 2026-Apr 2027 if rainfall low. US crude surge: exports to Asia via Canal +46% YoY record 61.6M metric tons Q2 2026, ~5M bpd avg, surge amid Hormuz disruptions (post-Feb 2026 Iran). Rerouting: congestion/diversions push some gas/crude tankers around South America (Cape/Magellan) or ship-to-ship, increased slot competition. Tanker traffic: multiple chem/oil/crude tankers in zone, ~4/day recent increases, waiting times doubled for MR2s. Revenue context: early 2026 strong recovery (+8-17% YoY), ~35 daily transits mid-2026 avg boosted Hormuz flows, FY2026 revenue beating forecasts despite drought. LNG imports: Costa Norte terminal 2018+ (~2 bcm/yr capacity), 2024 imports ~0.6 bcm from US, power generation. Renewables: ~73% power mix 2024 (hydro dominant, wind/solar growing), ~5.1 GW installed capacity, plans further renewables/Colombia interconnect (delayed to 2029). Energy Corridor: proposed ~76-77 km gas/LPG pipeline (propane/butane/ethane, 2.5M bpd capacity), ~4.2B dollar cost, significant investment interest. Shelved: 140 MW gas-fired power (Gas to Power Panama). Policy: national plans target 30% wind/solar by 2050. Panama: zero production, zero refining, pure logistics hub, Trans-Panama 860k bpd bypass, Canal Sept drought (34→32 transits) amid record US crude surge (+46% YoY) and Hormuz rerouting, record 5.3M dollar slot auctions, FY2026 revenues beating forecasts, LNG Costa Norte imports 0.6 bcm from US, renewables 73% power mix, Energy Corridor advanced.

Panama: world's busiest energy crossroads, drought-squeezed, Hormuz crisis beneficiary.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: WTI ~$101.34 (+0.98%), rally from low $80s Aug to $100-$103 zone. Bias: bullish above key levels, consolidation/decision point. Resistance: $103-$105 (immediate), $107-$108 (next upside target), $113 (cycle high strong bullish), $116-$120 (major extension if disruptions intensify). Support: $98.50-$100 (near-term holds bullish), $95.48 (61.8% Fib first pullback), $90-$92.50 (demand band 50% Fib ~$90 Elliott Wave critical break reversal risk), $85-$88 (medium-term 100-day SMA ~$85.38 July ~$94), $84.59/$77.86/~$67 (deeper). Indicators: RSI(14) 71.68 (overbought/sell), MACD +4.63 (buy), oscillators 6 sell/1 neutral/3 buy (sell bias), MA strong buy 12 buy signals (bullish trend), candlesticks mix bearish daily (Deliberation/Doji/Engulfing) bullish shorter, ADX buy strong momentum. Overall: bullish trend but short-term momentum fading, potential pullback before resumption. WTI consolidating near highs, support $98.50-$100 expected holding, resistance $103-$105 breakout targets $107-$108, reversal $95.48 Fib defense, geopolitical premium elevated. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS: Henry Hub ~$2.88-$2.90 at pivot, recent range ~$2.75-$3.01. Resistance: $2.897-$2.906 dense cluster (50% Fib/VWAP/SMA50/SuperTrend), $2.91 (R2), $2.917/$3.00 psychological. Bullish breakout >$2.906 targets ~$3.026. Support: $2.877 (S1 immediate), $2.87 (S2 Fib), $2.857/$2.715-$2.79 (deeper). Bearish reversal: $2.79-$2.84 downside. Indicators: MA clustered $2.83-$2.89 mostly bullish buy signals, MA200 ~$2.90, pivot ~$2.89. Bias: capped supply/storage, mixed-to-bullish technically. Setup: at pivot, resistance dense $2.897-$2.906 breach target $2.91/$3.00, bears defend $2.877 next $2.87 Fib, storage/LNG (19.6 Bcf/d multi-month high) warmer weather cooling demand geopolitical directing to US. Volatility: summer 2026 realized ~40%+, forward fall-winter Oct-Jan ~60-70%, drivers EIA weekly storage/weather/LNG/geopolitical, institutional long building, OI rising. WTI consolidating $98.50-$105 bullish bias momentum fading RSI overbought, R $103-$105 S $98.50-$100, geopolitical premium intact, monitor consolidation breakout/pullback support hold. NG at pivot $2.88-$2.89, R dense $2.897-$2.906, S $2.877-$2.87, upside $3.00 breakout downside $2.79-$2.84 reversal, storage LNG key drivers, elevated volatility forward higher. Trade charts respect levels manage risk.

Monday, September 14, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI surging to $102+ range (late session quotes $102.29-$102.55 up 2.23-2.50%). Brent breakout above $107 ($106.91-$108 range), +2% daily, +17-18% month, +58-59% YoY, first time above $100 since July. WTI-Brent spread widening $5-9/bbl premium to Brent signals Hormuz severity. Primary driver: US-Iran conflict seven months, Strait Hormuz effectively closed (normally 15-20M bpd 20% global consumption). Current: ~3 commercial arrivals/day (~4% pre-crisis 74/day baseline), oil flows near-zero, day 198 disruption, war-risk insurance 15x peacetime. Sep 13: Iran commercial vessel struck Qeshm Island (1 fatality, injuries), regional Oman talks indefinitely postponed, vessel transits single-digits 7-10/day vs pre-war 130+, US military facilitated cumulative 1,600+ vessels recent daily 9-11M bbl well below pre-war. Iranian blockade mid-July halted exports, loadings ~220k-255k bpd Aug vs much higher, dozens tankers stranded in Gulf, bypass capacity limited several M bpd cannot compensate. Secondary: drone/Houthi Saudi attacks, East-West pipeline (7M bpd bypass) temporary shutdowns, Red Sea threats, diplomatic uncertainty both sides signaling prolongation fading quick de-escalation hopes. Historical: early 2026 >$120 initial phase, eased temporary ceasefire/Hormuz reopen, re-accelerated renewed hostilities. Banks raising forecasts $95-$120+ if persist, some agencies gradual easing potential later 2026, global supply tightened. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub $2.88-$2.89/MMBtu. NYMEX NG close Sep 14: $2.882. Trading Econ $2.89 up 2.05%, OilPriceAPI $2.89 spot, Markets Insider ~$2.88, early Sep $2.81, prior sessions $2.83-$2.92 range, 52-week low ~$2.52-$2.56 high ~$7.46. Crude testing $100+ territory, Brent leading, Hormuz paralysis persists, gas holding $2.88-$2.89 decoupled but slightly higher. War premium embedded, diplomatic path unclear, supply deficit widening. Capital preservation first. Do not short active conflict. Respect the levels. Trade the data, not the headlines.

Friday, September 11, 2026. Belarus: marginal crude producer (2.0M tonnes annually, ~25k bpd, plans 2.1M 2026, 2.3M 2030); Belorusneft main producer, Russian subsidiary Yangpur 1M+ tonnes/yr; 96 fields, 194.5M tonnes recoverable, 531 wells planned 2026-2030; APG 219M m³ 2024. Refining dominance: Naftan/Mozyr 24M tonnes/yr capacity, 95-97% depth at Naftan. Record 2026 profitability: fuel exports to Russia surge (gasoline 25x first 7mo to 665k tonnes, diesel 7x to 418k tonnes, July record 212k gasoline/162k diesel rail). Russian refinery outages (Ukrainian drone strikes -25-30% capacity) create opportunity. Domestic sales 4.125M tonnes 2025. Gas import dependency 100% from Russia (~17B m³ 2025, down from higher levels via nuclear shift); periodic shortages, negotiating 2026+ terms. Nuclear: BelAES 17B kWh 2025, 40% electricity consumption, reducing gas reliance. Infrastructure: Druzhba pipeline carries Russian crude through Belarus to Europe (Hungary/Slovakia/Poland/Germany). Southern branch disrupted Jan-Apr 2026 (Ukrainian drone strikes Brody), resumed April 23; Hungary/Slovakia blocked EU 20th sanctions until resumed. Russia halted Kazakh transit northern branch May 1, 2026 (technical reasons), reducing volumes. Oct 2026: Gomeltransneft/Polotsktransneft merged into one Gomel entity improving efficiency. Sanctions: EU 20th (Apr 2026) asset freezes/LNG restrictions/export-import bans/transit prohibitions; EU 21st (Jul 2026) targeted energy/finance/military, designated Mozyr refinery. UK exemption Druzhba through Oct 14, 2027. Hungary/Slovakia political leverage over pipeline delays EU sanctions. Economic: sanctions increase Russia dependence. Druzhba revenues decline (southern 9.25-9.7M tons 2025, further 2026). Transit income ~€35-50M/yr potential. GDP growth slowed 2025-early 2026. Rail exports oil/petrochemicals 50% above 2025 pace. Belarus: Europe's refinery for Russia, marginal producer, 100% energy import-dependent, geopolitical hostage.

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,600 bpd). Federal production 2016-2025: 2.4M bbl oil, 45M cf gas (<0.1% national). USGS undiscovered 1.407B bbl recoverable (3rd highest after AK, NM). Entirely import-dependent on California refineries (88% fuel). Refinery closure vulnerability significant. Renewable dominance: solar 5,480 MW across 70 farms (8.2 GW total, 33.5% electricity, 8,510 jobs), ~30% generation share, 47 farms 16.6 GW planned. Geothermal 26 plants 933 MW (8-8.6% mix, 2nd largest US), major: McGinness Hills 104 MW; new projects Lone Mountain, Pearl (60 MW), Ormat EGS Dixie Valley (280 MW). Wind negligible 150-152 MW (0.78% generation). NV Energy 2026 IRP: 4,370 MW new solar, 5,405 MW battery storage, 180 MW geothermal through 2033. Data center electricity demand unprecedented: 5% 2025 sales to 64% by 2046, driving major generation/storage/gas turbine builds. Gas procurement from Permian/Rocky Mountain/San Juan via Kern River with hedging. Nevada: marginal crude/gas, zero refining, renewable/data center powerhouse, California fuel dependency vulnerability, EGS/solar/geothermal boom through 2033.

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93.66. Strong early Sep momentum low-to-mid $80s late Aug to low-to-mid $90s. 1-2%+ daily gains volatility. 52-week ~$55-$119 currently upper third. +48-50% YoY from ~$62. Drivers: US-Iran conflict heightened (tanker strikes, Iranian Strait statements), supply disruption risks Middle East, ~10% prior week rally. Technical: near/testing $95 WTI/$100 Brent resistance, potential upside sustained geopolitical, ascending triangles noted. INVENTORY (EIA Aug 28 Released Sep 2): Commercial crude 424.5M down 4.5 (~1% above avg); SPR 286.6M down 3.1 sharply YoY; total US crude ~711.1M down ~7.6; gasoline 205.7M down 1.2 (6% below avg); distillates 104.2M up 0.8 (14% below avg); Cushing ~22.5M up ~0.1; total commercial down 3.0 total stocks ~1,528.9M; refinery inputs 17.5M bpd up 102-103k (97-98% capacity near-multi-year highs); imports 4-week avg ~6.7M bpd up ~2% YoY; product supplied 4-week total ~20.4M bpd down 4% YoY (gasoline ~8.9M bpd down 2% YoY, distillates ~3.7M bpd down 6% YoY); next report ~Sep 10 (week ending Sep 4-5 Labor Day delayed). NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub ~$2.90-$2.92/MMBtu. World Oil Monitor 2.923 Sep 8; Markets Insider ~$2.90 down ~2.49% range ~$2.86-$3.01; Investing.com Oct '26 ~$2.91 down ~2.15-2.45% intraday $2.864-$3.013. 52-week low ~$2.48-$2.52 high ~$7.46-$7.83. OPEC+ (Sep 6): Seven core members (Saudi/Russia/Iraq/Kuwait/Kazakhstan/Algeria/Oman) maintain Oct output at Sep 2026 levels (unchanged). Rationale: market conditions, Iran war export impact, 2027 prep. Follows 2023 cut rollback (Sep 188k bpd increase completed 1.65M bpd unwind); actual output well below targets (conflict constrained). Shift to 2027: reviewing capacity to set quotas, further hikes likely paused. Iran disruptions Strait Hormuz (recent US strikes, Iranian responses) mean quota changes limited real-world supply impact. Next: Oct 4. Brent spiked ~$96 recently (earlier peaks higher); volatility ongoing conflict, limited OPEC+ near-term physical influence. Broader 21-member cuts remain end-2026; core members constrained Iran conflict. Crude testing major resistance. OPEC+ pausing new hikes. Geopolitical premium persists.

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 after earlier gains. Bullish structure above moving averages. Ascending channel since late August. Support levels: $92.47 (50% Fib critical), $91.00-$91.04 (100-hr/ST MA), $88.01/$86.40-$86.99 (38.2%/50% Fib/channel mid), $85.21-$85.96 (100-day SMA), $84.79/$82.26 (61.8% Fib). Resistance: $93.50 (immediate major ST resistance June highs), $92.67-$93.22 (near-term 1.618 Fib ext/channel top), $97.00 (June 3 swing high), $98.41-$98.48 (61.8%/78.6% Fib), $100+ (psychological/LT targets). Momentum: RSI 14 (60-70 bullish but overbought threshold), MACD (positive histogram expanding), Stochastic (overbought ~89 possible exhaustion/pullback). Pivot points daily: pivot ~$90.79, R1 ~$92.49-$92.86, R2 ~$94.24, R3 ~$96.31, S1 ~$89.41, S2 ~$87.34, S3 ~$85.96. Outlook: Bullish above key MAs/Fib supports; potential pullback $85-$88 before further gains; overbought signals consolidation risk. NATURAL GAS TECHNICALS. Henry Hub trading near $2.97-$2.98/MMBtu. Price action Sep 7 close $2.976-$2.98. Consolidating tight range. Bullish if support holds; resistance capping upside. Support: $2.87-$2.89 (major near-term 50-day EMA ~$2.88 SuperTrend swing lows), $2.80-$2.82 (secondary 50% Fib), $2.90-$2.93 (dynamic rising trendlines), $2.77-$2.78 (deeper $2.70 targets if $2.87 breaks). Resistance: $3.00-$3.03 (primary psychological/technical double top/supply), $3.05-$3.08 (immediate extension), $3.12-$3.20 (next major $3.03 breakout 78.6% Fib), $3.28-$3.40 (LT resistance declining 200-day MA ~$3.28). Pivot daily: ~$2.96 pivot, ~$2.89-$2.91 supports, ~$3.01-$3.04 resistances. Projections: Bullish $3.14-$3.37 on $3.03 break; Bearish $2.70-$2.62 below $2.87. 52-week range: Low ~$2.48-$2.52, High ~$7.46-$7.83. YTD 2026: Down ~17.7% from ~$3.618 start. Summary: WTI testing $93.50 resistance with bullish structure above key MAs. Overbought RSI/Stochastic suggest near-term consolidation. Support at $92.47 (50% Fib), $91, deeper $86-$87. Upside targets $97-$100. Gas consolidating $2.97 with $3.00 psychological resistance. Support holds $2.87-$2.89 (50-day EMA). Breakout above $3.03 targets $3.20+. YTD down 17.7%.

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oil consumption ~65k b/d 2024 (large deficit entirely imports); production covers <1% needs. No domestic natural gas production reported/indicated. ELECTRICITY GENERATION: 2025 electricity 98.6% renewables (hydro/geothermal/wind/biomass/solar), verified ICE/DOCSE; thermal/fossil minimal. 2025/early 2026 hydro dominated ~70-75%+ generation, wind ~12%, geothermal ~11%, biomass/solar rest; low-carbon ~98% rolling 12-month mid-2026. Installed capacity end-2025 ~3,659 MW led hydro (~2,342 MW), wind (~437 MW), thermal/backup (~531 MW), geothermal (~263 MW), small biomass/solar shares. OVERALL ENERGY SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION: 2024 baseline oil/products ~55% total supply; renewables (hydro/solar/wind/other/biofuels/waste) balance. Final consumption oil products ~67%, reflecting heavy transport use despite clean electricity. 2026 economic higher oil prices moderate GDP ~3.6% (IMF); headwind alongside factors. RENEWABLE OUTLOOK AND CAPACITY: Plans add ~600 MW new geothermal/solar/wind by 2030 (ICE/private generators) maintain high renewable shares. Fossil thermal plants mainly strategic backup; share electricity ~2% or less high-renewable periods. Imports 100% finished petroleum products; no domestic refining. REGIONAL AND SOLAR SPECIFICS: Costa Rica stands out regionally near-100% renewable electricity vs. higher fossil neighboring countries. Solar 2025 only ~0.27-0.28% electricity (~36.6 GWh total generation), 15.5 MW installed capacity. National demand ~13 TWh 2025; system supports regional exports while maintaining high domestic coverage (~97% demand met renewably). Clean energy leader. Lessons for the world.