Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Friday, November 29, 2025 — Special Edition. **A note to our listeners:** This episode is pre-scheduled. Our producer is out of office. We'll return with our regular Weekly Recap format on Monday, December 2nd, covering the OPEC+ meeting and the week's key developments. Today, we're taking a deep dive into a region most energy investors overlook: The Balkans. This is Europe's forgotten energy battleground. And it matters more than you think. --- **THE BALKANS - WHY IT MATTERS** The Balkans sit at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Geographically, strategically, and energetically, this region is critical. Six countries: Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania. Combined population: roughly 18 million people. Small by global standards. But their energy infrastructure decisions ripple across Europe. Here's why: The Balkans are the last frontier of Europe's energy diversification strategy. They're the testing ground for breaking Russian energy dominance. And they're sitting on critical minerals that could power the global energy transition. --- **THE PIPELINE REVOLUTION** For decades, the Balkans operated on a single-axis, single-supplier energy system: Russian gas flowing south through Ukraine and Hungary. That model is dead. **The Trans Adriatic Pipeline - TAP:** TAP is the final segment of the Southern Gas Corridor, transporting gas from Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea fields through Greece and Albania into Italy. Annual capacity: 10 billion cubic meters. Expandable to 20 billion cubic meters. TAP went operational in 2020, but its strategic importance exploded in 2022 when Europe scrambled to replace Russian gas. By 2025, TAP has become the backbone of Southeastern Europe's energy security. **The Interconnector Explosion:** Greece to Bulgaria. Bulgaria to Serbia. Serbia to Hungary. Croatia to Bosnia and Herzegovina. North Macedonia to Greece. Albania to the continental gas and power network. The Balkans have shifted from a single-corridor, single-supplier system to a multi-source, multi-corridor, multi-actor network. Pipelines no longer represent dominance. They represent options. **Greece and Bulgaria - The New Gatekeepers:** Greece is now an LNG gateway and a power-market hub. Bulgaria is a balancing point for Caspian gas and LNG from Greece. These two countries have quietly become the backbone of Balkan diversification. **Serbia's Strategy:** Serbia is planning new gas pipelines connecting to Romania and North Macedonia. This would give Serbia access to three alternative import routes: Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania. Construction timelines are not yet finalized, but the intent is clear: Serbia is hedging its Russian dependence. **The Risk:** Expanding gas pipeline capacity in the Western Balkans could jeopardize the energy transition. It risks locking in gas dependence and exposing countries to stranded asset risks. The EU is virtually closing the door on gas financing in the Western Balkans. The question is whether these countries will pivot to renewables or double down on gas. --- **THE COAL PROBLEM** The Balkans are still heavily dependent on coal. **The Reality:** Due to the energy crisis and rising prices, some Balkan nations have increased coal production. North Macedonia planned to open new coal mines and purchase coal from Kosovo. Serbia increased coal production due to insufficient hydropower. Romania extended the operation of coal power plants by three years. Coal has been a significant employer in the Western Balkans. Phasing it out is not just an energy decision. It's a social and economic decision. **The Transition:** North Macedonia has committed to phasing out coal-fired power generation and deploying 1.7 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030. Montenegro is developing an 81 MW solar park on a coal mine site. North Macedonia is also developing solar plants at former coal mines. Bulgaria indicated in 2021 that it might close all coal-fired power plants by mid-2025, replacing its largest coal plant with a gas system. **The Challenge:** A "just transition" is critical. This involves supporting communities affected by the coal transition. Without it, political resistance will kill the energy transition. The EU Growth Plan presents an opportunity to advance reforms and address structural issues, from governance to infrastructure development. But the clock is ticking. --- **THE RUSSIAN DEPENDENCE - SERBIA'S DILEMMA** Serbia is the most exposed country in the Balkans to Russian energy dependence. **The Facts:** Serbia has been heavily dependent on Russian gas and, to a lesser extent, oil. The Petroleum Industry of Serbia, NIS, is majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft. U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's oil sector have significantly impacted Serbia. The sanctions complicate crude imports and disrupt refining operations. Serbia's only oil refinery in Pancevo, operated by NIS, faced potential shutdown in November 2025 after its crude import route through Croatia was blocked due to sanctions. **The Consequences:** To avoid fuel shortages, Serbia may need to import refined petroleum products, potentially from Hungary. This could lead to higher fuel prices. Serbia's energy cooperation with Moscow might become virtually impossible due to the EU's plan to end Russian gas imports and transit from 2026. **The Pivot:** Serbia is increasing its renewable energy capacity. The solar and wind fleet is expected to expand. Serbia aims to have 45% of electricity generation from renewables by 2030. But in 2025, Serbia is expected to import 90% of its natural gas and 80% of its crude oil and petroleum products. This is not energy independence. This is energy vulnerability. --- **BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - THE PIPELINE GAMBLE** Bosnia and Herzegovina is supplied with natural gas from Russia through the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. The EU's ban on importing Russian natural gas doesn't directly impact Bosnia's gas supply, as it allows for transit of Russian gas through EU territory. But the writing is on the wall. **The U.S. Intervention:** U.S. and Bosnian officials discussed accelerating the construction of a natural gas pipeline with Croatia, as an alternative to Russian supplies. U.S. partners are potentially leading the project to build the South Interconnection gas pipeline, bringing gas from a Croatian LNG terminal. **The Renewable Push:** Renewable energy generation increased significantly in May 2025. Hydropower is the dominant source of renewable electricity. Bosnia and Herzegovina's target for its renewable energy share is 43.6% by 2030. The question is whether Bosnia can build the infrastructure fast enough to avoid a gas crisis. --- **CROATIA - THE RENEWABLE LEADER** Croatia is the Balkans' renewable energy success story. **The Numbers:** Solar energy installations almost doubled in one year and are expected to surpass one gigawatt in 2025. The updated National Energy and Climate Plan targets raising the share of renewables in energy consumption from 36.4% to 42.5% by 2030. **The Challenges:** The renewable energy sector faces structural and legal challenges, including outdated grid infrastructure and a long permitting process. Croatia is expanding its pipeline network to support LNG terminal growth and gas diversification in neighboring countries. **The Nuclear Bet:** Croatia is planning to build small modular nuclear reactors, SMRs. This is a long-term play. But it signals Croatia's intent to lead the region's energy transition. --- **THE LITHIUM WILDCARD - SERBIA'S JADAR MINE** The Balkans are sitting on critical minerals. And the most controversial is lithium. **The Jadar Mine:** The Jadar lithium mine project in Serbia, led by Rio Tinto, is one of the most contentious energy projects in Europe. The European Commission has included the Jadar project in the list of strategic raw materials projects outside the EU. The project aims to contribute to the suppl...

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, November 27, 2025 — EIA Inventory Reports. U.S. crude inventories rose 2.8 million barrels. WTI fell to $58.39. Natural gas rallied to $4.62. Let's break down the data. **Crude Oil Inventories - The Build** The EIA reported U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels for the week ending November 21st, reaching 426.9 million barrels. The market expected a draw. We got a build. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 68,000 barrels. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day, up 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, up 486,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. crude exports were 3.6 million barrels per day, down 560,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Imports are rising. Exports are falling. Inventories are building. This is not the setup for higher prices. **Gasoline and Distillate Inventories** Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 0.1% from the same period last year. Demand is flat to slightly negative year-over-year. **The Price Reaction** WTI crude fell to $58.39 per barrel on November 27th, down 0.45% on the day. Natural gas rallied to $4.62 per MMBtu, up 1.28% on the day. Natural gas is up 72.20% year-over-year. This is the decoupling thesis in action. **The Geopolitical Backdrop** U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil create extraordinary production uncertainty affecting approximately 6.3 to 6.5 million barrels per day. This is the wildcard. If sanctions are lifted, Russian barrels flood the market. If sanctions remain, supply tightens. The market is pricing in the former. **OPEC+ - The December 1st Meeting** OPEC+ is preparing to approve a small increase in oil production in December, approximately 137,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ has been raising production since April amid plans to regain market share. But the market doesn't need more supply. It needs less. The December 1st meeting is the reality check. **What It Means** The EIA inventory build confirms the bearish crude oil thesis. Supply is growing faster than demand. Inventories are building. Prices are falling. Natural gas is rallying on structural demand. LNG exports. Data center demand. Electrification. WTI at $58.39 is testing support. A break below $58 opens the door to $56. Natural gas at $4.62 is consolidating. Target $5.00. **Catalyst Watch** Sunday, December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** The inventory build is the crude oil problem. Rising imports. Falling exports. Building inventories. Natural gas is decoupling on structural demand. Trade the data. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Friday for the Weekly Recap.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, November 26, 2025 — Macro Context. Crude oil is breaking down because global growth is too slow to support demand. Let's connect the dots. **The Global Growth Picture** The IMF projects global growth at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. But that's the optimistic view. PwC expects global economic growth of just 2.6% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.8% in 2024. The World Bank is even more cautious, anticipating a weakening to 2.3% in 2025. This is not the growth rate that drives oil demand. The Regional Breakdown: The U.S. economy is forecast to expand by just over 2%. Solid, but not strong. China's growth is expected to slow to around 4.5% to 5.0% in 2025. Goldman Sachs raised their forecast to 5.0%, but that's still a deceleration. The Eurozone is projected to grow just 0.9% in 2025, edging up to 1.4% in 2026 as Germany begins to recover. What's Driving the Slowdown: Geopolitical tensions. Rising protectionist policies. Elevated trade barriers. Policy uncertainty. This is the macro backdrop for crude oil. Weak global GDP equals weak oil demand. **The Oil Demand Problem** The IEA expects global oil demand to increase by just 710,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026. OPEC is more optimistic, forecasting demand growth of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. But even OPEC has revised its forecasts downward for the fourth consecutive month. JP Morgan expects global oil demand to expand by just 0.9 million barrels per day in 2025. The China Factor: China is the marginal buyer. The IEA anticipates China will see demand growth of just 220,000 barrels per day in 2025. Why? Electric vehicle adoption is accelerating. The property downturn continues to weigh on growth. China's oil demand is growing modestly, with support mainly coming from petrochemical feedstocks. **The Supply Surplus** Here's the problem: Supply is growing faster than demand. The IEA anticipates global oil supply to increase by 3 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching 106.1 million barrels per day. Non-OPEC+ production from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Argentina is driving the increase. JP Morgan forecasts that supply will grow at nearly three times the rate of demand in both 2025 and 2026, potentially leading to a significant supply surplus. The math is simple: 3 million barrels per day of supply growth versus 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day of demand growth. That's a glut. **The Fed and The Dollar** The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 2025 meeting. The probability of a rate cut in December is around 79%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But here's the twist: The U.S. Dollar Index broke above 100 in November 2025, a key threshold that signals a fundamental shift in global monetary dynamics. A stronger dollar puts pressure on commodities, including crude oil, because it makes them more expensive for buyers using other currencies. U.S. inflation rose to 3% in September 2025 and is projected to remain above the Fed's 2.0% target for the remainder of 2025. The Fed is walking a tightrope: Cut rates to support growth, but risk reigniting inflation. **What It Means for Energy** Crude oil is breaking down because the macro backdrop is bearish. Global growth is too slow. Oil demand growth is anemic. Supply is growing three times faster than demand. The dollar is strong. Natural gas is decoupling because its demand drivers are structural, not cyclical. LNG exports. Data center demand. Electrification. This is why WTI is testing $58 while natural gas is holding above $4.40. **Catalyst Watch** Today: EIA Inventory Reports. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** The global growth problem is the crude oil problem. Weak GDP. Weak demand. Oversupply. Strong dollar. Natural gas is decoupling on structural demand. Trade the macro. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Friday for the Weekly Recap.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Tuesday, November 25, 2025 — Technicals. WTI bounced off $58 support. Natural gas is consolidating above $4.50. Let's break down the charts. **WTI Crude Oil - The Technical Picture** WTI crude closed Tuesday at $58.84 per barrel, up 1.3% on the day. The Levels That Matter: Support: $58.00 held. This is the critical floor. Below that, we're looking at $56.00. Resistance: $60.00 is the first level to reclaim. Above that, $61.50 to $62.00 is the zone that needs to break to improve short-term momentum. Moving Averages: The 50-day SMA is at $60.82. WTI is trading below it. This is resistance. The 100-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. This signals a higher likelihood of continued downside. WTI is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs. The near-term setup remains bearish. RSI: The RSI is in oversold territory and turning higher. This suggests a potential short-term correction as buyers take advantage of lower prices. However, oversold doesn't mean bullish. It means stretched. A bounce is not a reversal. MACD: The MACD is edging back above the zero line, indicating fading downside pressure. This is a potential early signal of stabilization, but confirmation requires a move above $60. The Bigger Picture: WTI is trading within a descending channel. The longer-term trend is down. The bounce off $58 is a relief rally, not a trend change. **Brent Crude Oil - The Technical Picture** Brent crude closed Tuesday at $63.41 per barrel, up 1.35% on the day. The Setup: Brent is holding above $63, but resistance at $64 to $65 is capping upside. The WTI-Brent spread is approximately $4.57 per barrel, with Brent at a premium. The Trend: Like WTI, Brent is in a downtrend. The bounce is technical, not fundamental. **Natural Gas - The Technical Picture** Natural gas closed Tuesday near $4.535 per MMBtu, consolidating above $4.50. The Levels That Matter: Support: $4.40 is holding. Below that, $4.20 is the next level. Resistance: $4.60 needs to be reclaimed to target $5.00. The Structural Story: LNG export demand remains strong. Feedgas deliveries to LNG facilities surpassed 14 Bcf per day in November, an all-time high. The U.S. now accounts for over 25% of global LNG supply. This is the floor under natural gas prices. Domestic production has reached a new record above 110 Bcf per day, but demand is absorbing it. The EIA Outlook: The EIA projects Henry Hub spot prices to average $3.90 overall in winter 2025-26. They expect prices to average $4.00 in 2026, 16% higher than in 2025. The Technical Picture: Natural gas is consolidating after a 32% rally. This is healthy price action. The uptrend remains intact as long as $4.40 holds. **What It Means** WTI bounced off $58, but the trend is still down. The RSI and MACD are showing early signs of stabilization, but confirmation requires a break above $60. Natural gas is consolidating above $4.50. The structural demand story is intact. The uptrend is alive. This is the decoupling thesis in action. **Catalyst Watch** Wednesday: U.S. crude oil inventory data. EIA report. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. **Final Word** WTI at $58 is the line in the sand. A break below opens the door to $56. Natural gas above $4.40 keeps the bull case alive. Target $5.00. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries or introductions to energy capital sources: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Wednesday for Macro Context.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Monday, November 24, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. WTI crude is testing $58. Natural gas pulled back but held above $4.40. This is the week that sets up December. Let's position. **Crude Oil - The $58 Floor** WTI crude closed Monday at $58.07 per barrel, up just 0.02% on the day. This is critical support. Brent crude closed at $62.60 per barrel, up 0.07%. The Setup: WTI is testing the psychological $58 level. A break below opens the door to $56, then $54. The 50-day moving average at $60.82 is now resistance. The path of least resistance remains down. The Macro Backdrop: The IEA is warning of a potential glut of 4 million excess barrels per day entering the market by 2026. That's the headline driving sentiment. OPEC+ agreed to a small output increase for December but paused increases for Q1 2026 due to supply glut fears. OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward for the fourth consecutive month. For 2025, OPEC now estimates demand growth at 1.54 million barrels per day, down from 1.64 million barrels per day. The Geopolitical Factor: Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks could lead to the removal of sanctions on Russia, potentially increasing Russian exports and adding more supply to an already oversupplied market. Year-Over-Year: WTI is down 18.11% compared to last year. Brent is down 13.63%. **Natural Gas - Pullback on Profit-Taking** Natural gas closed Monday at $4.47 per MMBtu, down 2.37% on the day. The Context: This is profit-taking after a 32.62% rally over the past month. The pullback is healthy. Natural gas is still up 29.87% year-over-year and up 11.87% month-over-month. The Structural Support: LNG export demand remains strong, averaging 17.8 Bcf per day in November, up from 16.7 Bcf per day in October. European demand is driving this, amid reduced Russian flows. Data center demand continues to grow. Electricity demand is projected to grow 4.7% over the next five years, driven by AI infrastructure. The Technical Picture: Support at $4.40 is holding. A break below targets $4.20. Resistance at $4.60 needs to be reclaimed to target $5.00. **The Strategic Positioning** Crude oil is in a downtrend. The macro backdrop is bearish. The technical setup is bearish. The only question is whether $58 holds or breaks. Natural gas is in an uptrend. The structural demand story is intact. The pullback is a buying opportunity for those positioned for the electrification trade. This is the decoupling thesis in action. **Catalyst Watch - Week Ahead** Wednesday: U.S. crude oil inventory data. EIA report. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. Friday: Shortened trading session. Holiday positioning. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** WTI at $58 is the line in the sand. Below that, we're looking at $56, then $54. Natural gas above $4.40 keeps the structural bull case alive. Target $5.00. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Tuesday for Technicals.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Friday, November 21, 2025 — Weekly Recap. This week, crude oil broke down. Natural gas broke out. The decoupling thesis is playing out in real time. Let's recap the week. **Crude Oil - The $58 Breakdown** WTI crude oil closed Friday at $58.34 per barrel, down 1.12% on the day and testing critical support at $58. Brent crude closed at $62.64 per barrel, down 1.17%. The Week's Action: WTI broke below $60 and held there. The 50-day moving average at $60.82 is now resistance. The path of least resistance is down. What Drove It: The IEA projects a crude oil oversupply of more than 4 million barrels per day in 2026. That's the headline driving sentiment. OPEC+ is slowly unwinding production cuts, adding 137,000 barrels per day in November. But the G8 members only delivered 12% of the agreed quota increase. Some can't raise production due to capacity constraints. Others are compensating for prior overproduction. The geopolitical risk premium is gone. Reports of renewed U.S. efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices all week. The EIA Data: Thursday's inventory report showed a surprise 3.4 million barrel draw in crude stocks. Cushing inventories dropped by 698,000 barrels. But the market didn't care. Gasoline and distillate builds confirmed weak demand. Year-Over-Year: WTI is down 18.11% compared to last year. Brent is down 16.67%. **Natural Gas - The Breakout** Natural gas closed Friday at $4.58 per MMBtu, up 2.27% on the day. The Month's Performance: Natural gas is up 32.62% over the past month and up 39.20% year-over-year. What's Driving It: LNG exports. U.S. feedgas volume in November averaged 17.9 Bcf per day, up from October's record. Data center demand. Electricity demand is projected to grow 4.7% over the next five years, driven by AI infrastructure. Winter positioning. Despite warmer-than-normal forecasts and ample storage, the market is pricing in structural demand. The Storage Data: Natural gas storage withdrew 12 Bcf for the week ending November 14th. Total working gas stands at 3,960 Bcf, 172 Bcf above the five-year average. The withdrawal was smaller than expected, but the market held support. **The Decoupling in Action** WTI crude is collapsing toward $58 while Henry Hub natural gas is holding $4.58. Oil is tethered to weak global GDP growth. Natural gas is decoupling, driven by electrification and LNG exports. This is the trade. **Catalyst Watch - Week Ahead** Monday: Markets closed for Thanksgiving week positioning. Wednesday: U.S. crude oil inventory data. Thursday: Thanksgiving. U.S. markets closed. December 1st: OPEC+ meeting. The reality check. **Final Word** This week confirmed the thesis. Crude fundamentals are bearish. Natural gas fundamentals are structurally supported. WTI below $58 opens the door to $56, then $54. Natural gas above $4.50 targets $5.00. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Monday.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Thursday, November 20, 2025 — EIA Inventory Reports. The data is in. Crude drew. Natural gas withdrew. But the market didn't care. Let's break down why. **Crude Oil - Surprise Draw** U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels for the week ending November 14th. Total stocks now sit at 424.2 million barrels. This is about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Analysts expected a draw of only 603,000 barrels. The actual draw was nearly six times larger. What drove it? Stronger crude exports. U.S. crude exports surged by 1.34 million barrels per day to 4.16 million barrels per day. Refinery run rates increased. Refineries operated at 90% capacity, up 0.6 percentage points. Cushing, Oklahoma: Inventories at the WTI delivery hub dropped by 698,000 barrels to 22.5 million barrels. Cushing is draining. The market reaction? WTI crude traded around $59.50. The draw didn't matter. Why? Because the macro backdrop is bearish. Reports that the U.S. is renewing efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on prices. A ceasefire could allow the free flow of Russian oil into the market. **Gasoline and Distillates - Builds** Gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels to 207.4 million barrels. This was the first increase in seven weeks. Analysts expected a draw. Gasoline production decreased to 9.3 million barrels per day. Implied demand fell by 500,000 barrels per day week-over-week. Distillate inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels to 111.1 million barrels. Analysts expected a draw of 1.2 million barrels. Distillates are about 7% below the five-year average, but the build signals weak diesel demand. **Natural Gas - Withdrawal Season Begins** Natural gas storage withdrew 12 billion cubic feet for the week ending November 14th. Total working gas in storage stands at 3,960 billion cubic feet. This is 172 Bcf above the five-year average and roughly flat compared to last year. The withdrawal is smaller than expected, signaling mild weather and ample supply. Natural gas is trading at $4.37 per MMBtu, holding support despite the bearish storage data. **What It Means** The crude draw was bullish on paper. But the market is forward-looking. Geopolitical risk is fading. Demand is weak. The EIA projects crude prices will fall to $55 per barrel by 2026. Gasoline and distillate builds confirm weak demand heading into winter. Natural gas is holding because of structural demand from LNG exports and data centers, not because of storage draws. **Final Word** The inventory data confirmed the thesis: crude fundamentals are bearish. Natural gas fundamentals are structurally supported. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Friday for the Weekly Recap.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Wednesday, November 19, 2025 — Macro Context. Today, we examine the global economic forces driving energy markets. The correlation between global growth and energy prices is breaking. **The Macro Landscape** The OECD cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.7%. The engine is sputtering. China's property crisis continues. Industrial output is slowing. The transition from infrastructure to consumption is bearish for diesel and crude. Europe is flirting with recession. Manufacturing PMIs in Germany remain in contraction. High energy costs are de-industrializing the continent. The US is the exception. GDP growth remains at 2.1%, driven by services and tech. But manufacturing is flat. **The Dollar Headwind** The US Dollar Index is trading at 105.40. A strong dollar is a headwind for commodities. The Fed is holding rates higher for longer. With inflation above 2.5%, there's no rush to cut. This keeps the dollar bid and puts a ceiling on crude prices. **The Geopolitical Risk Premium** We have war in Eastern Europe and tensions in the Middle East. Yet the geopolitical risk premium in oil has evaporated. Why? Spare capacity. OPEC+ is sitting on over 5 million barrels of spare capacity. The market knows the taps can open if needed. The fear trade is dead. The market is trading on demand fundamentals, and those are weak. **Natural Gas - The Outlier** While oil is tethered to GDP, natural gas is decoupling. Data center power demand is the new driver. US electricity demand is projected to grow 4.7% over the next five years, driven by AI. Natural gas is becoming a technology infrastructure asset, not just a commodity. This explains why Henry Hub holds $3.60 while WTI collapses to $60. **Catalyst Watch** Thursday: EIA Inventory Reports. Friday: US PCE Inflation data. Next month: December OPEC+ meeting. **Final Word** The macro signal is clear: Global growth is too slow to support $80 oil without a supply disruption. But electrification is strong enough to support $4.00 gas regardless of GDP. Trade the decoupling. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Thursday for the Inventory Report.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Tuesday, November 18, 2025 — Technicals. Today, we analyze the technical setup across WTI crude, Brent crude, and natural gas. The charts are telling a clear story. **WTI Crude - Bearish Breakdown** WTI crude dropped to $59.40 per barrel today. This is a breakdown. **Support and Resistance:** Support: $58.00, then $56.14 (61.8% Fibonacci extension). Below that, $54.59 and $52.09 are in play. Resistance: $60.82 (50-day moving average), $61.52 (200-day moving average), and $62.50. **Moving Averages:** The 100-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. This confirms bearish momentum. The gap is widening. Price is trading below both dynamic inflection points. WTI tested the 50-day moving average multiple times but failed to break and hold above it. The 200-day moving average sits overhead at $61.52. **RSI and MACD:** RSI remains below the midpoint, signaling sellers are in control. MACD is flashing sell signals. Technical indicators across the board show "Strong Sell." **The Setup:** WTI is trading within a descending trend line since mid-2025. A sustained break below $58 opens the door to $56.14, then $54.59. The path of least resistance is down. **Brent Crude - Descending Channel** Brent crude fell to $63.74 per barrel. **Support and Resistance:** Support: $63.40, $62.77, $60.55, and $60.00 (psychological level). Resistance: $64.15, $65-$66 zone, and $66.95. **Technical Picture:** Brent is moving within a declining trend and descending channel. Moving averages indicate a short-term bearish trend. Prices have broken below signal lines, confirming downward pressure. A break below $60.55 would confirm further declines toward $58.45, then $52.45. A breakout above $66.95 would invalidate the downward trend. **Natural Gas - Overbought But Supported** Natural gas is trading at $4.37 per MMBtu, up 0.10% today. **RSI and MACD:** RSI is at 37.27, signaling a "Sell." Below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought. MACD is at -0.038, also signaling "Sell." **The Bullish Case:** Winter demand is strong. Cold weather forecasts for December support prices. LNG exports are surging to record levels, driven by European demand. Natural gas maintains a higher-lows pattern. A breakout above $3.70 earlier this month established a long-term reversal. **The Bearish Case:** U.S. production is at record levels. Storage is 4% above the five-year average. Technical indicators show "Strong Sell." **Key Levels:** Support: $3.95. A break below shifts the outlook bearish. Resistance: $4.70-$4.80. A breakout targets $5.00. **The Levels That Matter** WTI crude: Support at $58. Resistance at $60.82 (50-day MA). Brent crude: Support at $60. Resistance at $65. Natural gas: Support at $3.95. Resistance at $4.70. **Final Word** The technicals confirm what the fundamentals are saying: crude is breaking down. WTI below $58 opens $56, then $54. Natural gas is holding structural support despite overbought signals. Winter demand and LNG exports are the backstop. The divergence trade remains intact. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Wednesday for Macro Context.

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily, brought to you by DailyDominanceNow.com. Monday, November 17, 2025 — Strategic Positioning. We're back with live market updates. Today, we examine the critical price levels defining energy markets and what they mean for positioning into year-end. **Current Market Snapshot** WTI crude is trading at $59.44 per barrel. Brent sits at $63.74. Natural gas at Henry Hub closed last week at $3.60 per MMBtu. The December NYMEX contract is at $4.53. These aren't random numbers. They're battlegrounds. **Crude Oil - The $60 Floor** WTI has been consolidating around the $60 level. This is the line in the sand. Last week, crude turned lower as traders reacted to bearish supply projections, a stronger dollar, and surprise inventory builds. OPEC+ increased output by 137,000 barrels per day in November. This marks the eighth consecutive month of production increases. The EIA projects Brent will average $62.52 per barrel in Q4 2025, then drop to $55 per barrel in 2026. **The strategic question:** Can WTI hold $60? A break below $57 confirms bearish momentum. A close above $62 reopens upside. **China - The Demand Wildcard** China's oil demand is projected to peak in 2025 at 770 million tonnes. This is the inflection point. Crude imports are expected to increase by only 1% in 2025. Electric vehicles, LNG trucks, and high-speed rail are eroding transportation fuel demand. For crude markets, this means the era of demand-driven price support is ending. **Natural Gas - Structural Strength** Natural gas is a different story. Henry Hub spot prices are projected to average $3.90 per MMBtu during winter months. The EIA expects prices to average $4.00 per MMBtu in 2026, 16% higher than 2025. Why? U.S. LNG exports are expected to reach 14.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, a 25% increase from 2024. Storage levels are healthy at 3,960 Bcf, 4% above the five-year average. Natural gas is benefiting from structural demand while crude faces structural headwinds. **Strategic Positioning** Here's the playbook: **Crude:** Defensive. Watch the $60 level on WTI. A break below $57 opens downside to $55. **Natural gas:** Constructive. Winter demand and LNG export growth support prices. The $3.50–$4.00 range is the new baseline. **The divergence trade:** Long natural gas, short crude. This is a structural shift. **Catalyst Watch** This week: EIA inventory reports on Thursday. Watch for crude builds and gas draws. Next week: Thanksgiving holiday. Expect thin liquidity. December: OPEC+ meeting on December 1st. Will they pause production increases? **The Levels That Matter** WTI crude: Support at $57. Resistance at $62. Natural gas: Support at $3.50. Resistance at $4.00. Brent crude: Support at $62. Resistance at $66. **Final Word** The $60 level on WTI is the battleground. Below it, we're looking at $55 crude by year-end. Above it, we get a relief rally into December. Natural gas is the structural winner. Position accordingly. For inquiries: [email protected]. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. We'll see you Tuesday for Technicals.