A fireside chat from the 2026 Distressed Investing Summit (Deal Forum, Four Seasons Resort, Palm Beach, FL).Private credit grew from near zero to roughly $3 trillion in a decade. Now retail money is heading for the exits, firms are putting up gates, and the system has never been tested by a real credit cycle. In this wide ranging conversation, two of restructuring's most experienced voices unpack what is actually happening under the hood: where private credit goes from here, the rise of asset based lending, the search for cheaper alternatives to Chapter 11, and the early warning signs worth watching. It closes with candid career advice for anyone building a future in the business.In this episode:Why private credit went too far, and what the retail pullback really meansGates are not a free lunch: the repercussions of stopping the outflowsPerformance vs. fear of bad performance, and why the numbers have held upMoving private credit into asset based lending, and why it is a different skill setStory credits: companies that are not distressed but cannot access cash flow loansUnderwriting to the downside, assuming you may have to enforce on the assetsThe equivalent of liability management in a one or two lender worldWhy private credit is less amenable to classic 50.1% vs. 49.9% maneuversThe search for efficiency: ABCs, receiverships, Article 9, and offshore filings (UK, Singapore, Denmark)Whether the system can handle a distress wave, and the 2008 ecosystem lessonThe canary in the coal mine: cash to PIK conversions and backdoor defaultsThe case for a new Chapter 16 and why Congress has done nothing with itStaying competitive: why US restructuring has lost groundClosing career advice: put yourself in a position to be luckyChapters:00:01 Intro01:09 Setting the stage: private credit, gates, and AI02:43 From zero to $3 trillion, and the retail pullback04:47 Does the actual performance justify the fear?05:37 Moving into the asset based lending market06:51 Story credits and underwriting to the downside08:35 Liability management in the private credit world10:58 Why one and two lender deals change the game11:52 No credit cycle yet, and whether the system can handle a wave13:44 Cash to PIK conversions as a warning sign15:18 Chapter 11 cost and alternatives: UK, ABCs, Article 915:44 How the bankruptcy code drifted from its 1978 balance16:59 The case for a Chapter 1617:49 Career advice: put yourself in a position to be luckyThe panel:James H. M. Sprayregen, Vice Chairman, Global Strategy & Growth, Hilco GlobalMo Meghji, Managing Partner, M3 PartnersHost: Roger Aguinaldo, Founder and CEO, The M&A AdvisorFollow The Advisor Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube, and subscribe to the M&A Alerts newsletter.#PrivateCredit #Restructuring #DistressedDebt #Bankruptcy #AssetBasedLending #MergersAndAcquisitions #DealMaking