Street Signals

A surprisingly strong midterm election for US Democrats opens a myriad of questions for markets. From the scale of AI investment to the path of the Iran conflict, the changes in the makeup of the US government carry significant financial implications. Noel Dixon and Cayla Seder, senior macro strategists from our team in the US, join the podcast for a wrap-up and look ahead.

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Big headlines have come and gone in 2026, but markets have barely blinked. This week we explore why volatility remains so subdued, what investors may be overlooking and the macro and market catalysts that could finally disturb the calm. Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the Americas at State Street Markets, joins the podcast with his thoughts as a surprisingly benign year nears a close.

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Japanese life insurers manage one of the largest pools of foreign savings in the world, and their decisions about where to put it and whether to hedge it ripple through global bond markets and the yen. With domestic rates normalising, the story of persistent yen weakness may be starting to change. In this episode, we sit down with Shintaro Yoshida, CIO of Orix Life Insurance, to discuss how rising JGB yields are reshaping the domestic-versus-foreign allocation decision, whether repatriation is a real prospect and what it would take for capital to come home in size. Its a rare look inside the decision-making that drives one of the most important flows in fixed income and FX markets.

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Nearly four years after the release of the first widely available large language models, the investing implications of artificial intelligence have so far been clear: it has been a very good idea to be long the AI factor. But we are no closer to understanding just how powerful artificial intelligence is and might be across the wider range of human experience. This week, we kick off a series of occasional episodes that will hopefully get us closer to some of the answers to those big picture questions. David Turkington, Head of State Street Associates, joins us to talk about what AI means for research, thought leadership and making better investing decisions.

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It's easy to get side-tracked by the day-to-day minutiae of markets, and taking a step back to get the bigger picture is often a good idea. Chris Pizzotti, Global Head of FX Sales and Trading at State Street Markets, is an ideal person to have just such a conversation. This week, we get Chris’ thoughts on the big trends in currency markets in 2026 and how he thinks they’ll play out in the coming months. More importantly, we talk through the future of the FX business and the value proposition for its clients, with some exciting news about the business he runs coming at the end of the episode.

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FX carry trades - earning the yield spread available between two typically risky and safe currencies - is a long-standing theme in markets, which has also enjoyed excellent risk-adjusted returns over the last year. But with rate markets becoming more disruptive, are these strategies at risk? This week, we look at the positioning and pricing in currencies exposed to carry trades, on both the long and short side, to determine if any complacency persists. Host Tim Graf, Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, puts his volatility hat on to talk through these risks.

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Last week's strong US CPI data left a Fed rate hike this week a foregone conclusion and likely inaugurates at least a modest hiking cycle. Inflation pressures are broad and not strictly energy-related, arguing for tighter policy globally. But does one key source of inflation, the AI build-out, need to break, to get price stability back on target? And what does that mean for an asset allocation strategy over the remainder of this year, into 2027? We discuss these questions, as well as how the US dollar might fare in an environment of constant flux, with Cayla Seder, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Markets.

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After years of the market anticipating strength in the Japanese yen, it might finally be here. Aided by official Japanese intervention in the currency and hints of collaboration with the United States, a correction of the JPY’s long-standing perceived undervaluation would make for one of the most meaningful currency trends of the last decade. But why now? Will the yen strength of recent weeks last? And how far can it go? This week, we ask Michael Metcalfe, Global Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets, all of those important questions, and much more.

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Almost no matter where you look, bond yields are making new multi-decade highs, with concerns growing that rising debt servicing costs in high debt economies risk a snow-balling effect that culminates in a fiscal crisis. As if that weren’t enough, risk markets, particularly equities and credit, still appear oblivious to the potential for upset. After a pivotal week of speeches and pronouncements from US policy officials, it seemed a good time to catch up with Peter Vincent, State Street Markets EMEA head of FX trading in London.

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August often brings important messaging shifts from the Federal Reserve, with their Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for 28-29 August, the usual forum. And we often speak to Marvin Loh, Senior Macro Strategist on our Americas team, about it. Unique circumstances might limit headline risk this year, but that's not for a lack of discussion material. Questions over the tightness of the labor market, the direction of inflation and the communication strategy of the central bank will dominate interest and serve as the jumping off point for a wide-ranging discussion on this week's episode.

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