On this November 14 episode we examine a market that is drifting without a single unifying negative narrative yet is steadily accumulating reasons for concern. High yield spreads are widening, and option adjusted spreads on CCC rated debt never returned to their pre Liberation Day lows. Creditors, it seems, have been pricing in greater risk for some time, and the recent rise in spreads only reinforces that view.

We note as well that lending to non bank financial institutions has surged by roughly fifty percent since the start of the year, much of which we suspect has flowed to private credit firms that have expanded rapidly during this cycle. The broader backdrop is no more comforting. OpenAI has requested government assistance, car loan delinquencies have reached a record high, Bitcoin has suffered fresh declines, and the economic uncertainty index remains elevated.

Taken together the picture is not one of outright crisis, but of mounting stresses in corners of the financial system that investors can no longer ignore.