So, do you really want to
leave college early and try your hand at professional football?
The 2019 NFL draft has just concluded. There were 254 young men selected last week by the 32 National Football League teams during the seven rounds of player selections.
The eligible players
automatically included all of the seniors and other players who have utilized
their four years of college football eligibility.
The NFL rules also permitted
college football players who participated for at least three seasons to leave
school and declare eligible for the NFL draft.
This season, there were 144
early entrants – players who put their names into the proverbial NFL draft pot-of-gold
in Nashville last week.
After all was said and done,
though, 49 of those 144 players (34%) never heard their name called in the
seven rounds of selections. Based on the
current NCAA rules, these 49 players are not permitted to return to play
college football next season, either.
There is some good news for
these players, though. Many of these 49 football
players will (or have already) signed with an NFL team as a free agent
beginning on Sunday after the draft concluded.
The bad news? The odds of an undrafted player making it
onto an NFL squad are quite low.
NFL teams will make difficult
decisions about players on next year’s team based on math, finance, and
politics.
Let’s look at the math
first. There are 53 players who made the
final squad from the most recent football season. NFL teams are permitted to carry an
additional ten extra players (who each earn about $100K/year) on their developmental
(or “Practice”) squad.
This summer when training
camps open, the NFL will allow each team to begin practices with a maximum of
90 potential players.
Assuming no retirements or trades,
that means that there will be a maximum of 27 new players (the seven draft
picks plus unsigned free agents) competing to earn a spot on the
roster/practice squad by the end of August.
Now, let’s talk finance. If the team just spent an additional $15
million per year to keep one or more of their veteran star players happy, then
the payroll needs to be trimmed elsewhere.
NFL teams will then look at
the cost of keeping a few of their older (and much more costly) players and,
potentially, replace some of them with the younger (and significantly cheaper) rookies
or last year’s practice squad players.
In 2018, the NFL’s salary cap
was set at $177.2 million per team. If
the star quarterback receives $25 million and his #1 receiver gets $15 million,
the other 51 players can (theoretically) share the remaining $137.2 million (or
about $2.7 million/player).
In 2018, the NFL minimum
salary for a rookie making the team was $480,000. Many other veterans on the team will earn significantly
more, so the team must keep an eye on its bottom line when making personnel decisions
this summer on who to keep, trade, or cut.
Then there’s also the
politics of being drafted.
No matter how good or bad the
#1 draft pick of your team performs during this summer’s training camp, it is
likely that the team (which paid a significant amount of bonus money...