Talking Europe

Our guest is someone who spends a lot of time thinking about Europe's place in the world, and how it should adapt to the new global order of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. We speak to Dutch political theorist and historian Luuk van Middelaar, who heads the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, about European defence, its strategic autonomy, artificial intelligence policy and of course the frayed relationship with Donald Trump in the light of the US president's trade war.

Van Middelaar points to the crucial role played by Germany in changing Europe's course on defence. "Friedrich Merz, on behalf of Germany, has found the space for €500 billion of investment, not only on infrastructure and transport, but also on defence. In a way, this is exporting a loosening of the fiscal rule book to the rest of the EU," van Middelaar states. Alluding to the opposition to the EU's ReArmEU plan in the Dutch parliament and in parts of the Italian government, van Middelaar says: 'I think the Dutch will come along once they see how Germany's position has changed. Germany is the central player here because it is the strongest economy and has the strictest budget rules. So when Germany relaxes those rules for itself, that encourages its neighbours and European partners to do the same. That is a general movement that Germany can set in motion, that Dutch and Italians and others will not stop so easily. So I think that fundamental change is afoot in that field."

Continuing with the theme of fundamental change, van Middelaar contends that "2025 might, in hindsight, at some point, be seen as the same pivotal moment in European or world history as 1989 – the end of the Cold War. [The historian] Francis Fukuyama called it 'the end of history.' Putin put an end to that three years ago already. But, in a way, what Trump is doing, I would say, is even more fundamental. Because Trump is ending the world order which started in 1945. That order is being unravelled, and I think that's the underlying objective in all the actions of the Trump administration – be it in his opening to Putin when it comes to the war in Ukraine, or his contempt for Europe as a historic ally (of America)."

Speaking of Trump's overture to Putin, and the apparent exclusion of the EU from the negotiating process on Ukraine, van Middelaar says: "The EU, or at least some European powers – France, the UK, or others – should try to get a seat at that negotiation. Because what is at stake is the future of European security. It's about how the continent at large, all the way from the UK to Ukraine, holds together and keeps the peace. It’s a bit humiliating that there are no European voices currently in that conversation."

So has the EU "woken up" to this new world order when it comes to its own strategic industries and artificial intelligence? "I think there is an awareness in the EU that, in the field of AI, Europe risks being squeezed between China and US big tech, especially now that American big tech is becoming more adversarial and closely aligned with Trump," van Middelaar replies. "There are startups; there are initiatives. There was a big AI summit in Paris earlier this year and I think this will be followed up with dedicated investments, with EU funding and also with funding by national capitals. So this is really a continental effort." Both the Americans and the Chinese "look at the 21st century as the era of AI wars that are fought with different means," van Middelaar goes on. "So Europe has to get ready for a rougher world order where we have to be able to defend ourselves."

Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

Trade, defence and Ukraine are not the only areas in which the EU is facing a massive challenge from the Trump administration. The US president's "America First" agenda is having a huge impact on the developing world. In March, it was announced that 83 percent of USAID programmes and contracts were being terminated. These programmes "don’t serve US interests", members of the Trump government say. But critics – including some MEPs in Brussels – say the de-funding is costing lives, for example when it comes to treatments for HIV.

The US had been the single top provider of overseas development assistance around the world, accounting for just over 23 percent in 2023. The EU and its member states collectively contributed 41 percent. One of the key questions now is who, if anyone, can fill the $60 billion funding gap? We put this question and others to our panel of MEPs.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Isabelle Romero

It was not supposed to happen again. Two years ago, after the cash-for-favours scandal known as "Qatargate" rocked the European Parliament and sent shockwaves through the EU, reforms were introduced to improve transparency. But now, fresh allegations of bribery have hit the EU's legislature – purportedly to the benefit of China's tech giant Huawei, according to the Belgian prosecutor's office.

Huawei is one of many companies that try to shape conversations in Brussels, and firms do report their activities on the EU's transparency register. But Huawei has been in the spotlight because it builds 5G networks, and Western countries are worried about possible collusion between Huawei and the Chinese Communist Party – a notion the tech firm rejects. 

Our panel of MEPs reflect on what the scandal says about lobbying and access to politicians, and why transparency reforms have foundered.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Oihana Almandoz

Strategic autonomy is a buzz phrase in Brussels, as the EU tries to ramp up its capabilities in key industrial sectors. Defence is of course a major focus for those efforts. But calls have grown for the bloc to boost its presence in space as well. Space is seeing weaponisation and hybrid warfare; indeed, the EU Commission says it is just as contested as land, sea, air or the cyber field.  Europe does have some world-class systems such as Galileo or Copernicus, but when it comes to the space sector as a whole, it suffers from fragmentation and underinvestment, similar to the problems that have bedevilled its defence sector.

With our two MEPs from the Sky and Space Intergroup at the European Parliament, we discuss how Europe can get smarter amid American and Chinese domination of the global spacecraft market.

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Oihana Almandoz

One of Ukraine's staunchest advocates in the EU and in NATO is Finland, which itself joined the Atlantic Alliance two years ago after decades of neutrality. We caught up with Finland’s President Alexander Stubb as he attended talks of the "coalition of the willing" hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Stubb gives us his perspective on European security and defence, NATO and of course the increasingly fractious relationship between the EU and the Trump administration, as the latter announces fresh tariffs on European imports.

"We (Europeans) need two things," Stubb states. "One is a negotiating team, just like the Americans, the Ukrainians and the Russians have. And they had that in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. And then probably eventually we need a special envoy who would be kind of in charge and coordinating everything, because right now, although we have really good leadership coming from France and the UK, there is still that question, 'OK, who is the European envoy? Who should I call'?"

On the "coalition of the willing", Stubb says: "This is originally a Franco-British initiative, which I welcome. It's a way to bring Britain back into Europe and get France engaged with Britain in a constructive way again. I think our mindset is very clear. We want Ukraine to win this war. We want them to retain their independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The French and the and the Brits took the lead. And the rest of us are following and being engaged as best we can."

Stubb then clears up misunderstandings about the circumstances in which "coalition of the willing" troops might potentially be deployed on the ground in Ukraine.

"A lot of people are getting their terms and timing mixed up here," he says. "So we need to look at this in two phases. The first phase is a ceasefire. The second phase is an actual peace agreement. So for the ceasefire you need some kind of a reassurance. That means that you can help in the air, on the sea, perhaps on land. That's the type of planning that our military staff are doing right now. And the political decisions that we take here in Paris are part of that first phase. The second phase is when peace has been maintained, settled and agreed. That's when you put in crisis management troops or peacekeeping troops on the basis of an international mandate. So these are two quite separate things. The ceasefire is still a state of war, whereas a peace agreement, that's when peace begins."

Read moreFrance and Britain will lead mission to support a future Ukrainian peace deal, Macron says

Stubb sounds sceptical, however, about the current ceasefire initiatives. 

"What we're seeing is a classic Russian negotiating tactic," he opines. "Ukraine wants a full ceasefire. Europe wants a full ceasefire. America wants a full ceasefire, and Russia forces it into a partial ceasefire, which in the first phase was energy infrastructure, which, of course, the Russians bombed immediately after they had agreed to a ceasefire. And the second phase is now a ceasefire in the Black Sea. These are all steps in the right direction. But never underestimate the capacity of Russians to break a ceasefire. They'll continue to do it. We need a full ceasefire and that needs to be monitored."

The Finnish president also reacts to recent scornful comments by US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance about "European freeloading".

"Well, yes, the rhetoric is a little bit tough, but let's give a little bit of credit to the Americans and to President Trump," Stubb answers. "I think he has done more in five weeks in pushing Europe to take care of its own security than previous American presidents did in 50 years. We are actually reacting to what the Americans are saying, and that's actually a good thing. So put the rhetoric aside and see what's happening on the ground."

Stubb then counters the "freeloading" charge when it comes to Finland and NATO's northern flank. "I come from a country with a 1,340km border with Russia, which has obligatory military service and one of the biggest militaries in Europe, and that has always bought American military equipment, including 62 F-18s and 64 F-35s, and has the biggest artillery in Europe, together with Poland. Up there in the northern flank, we don't freeload. We help. We are security providers, not security consumers."

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero, Luke Brown and Oihana Almando

The European Investment Bank has existed since the inception of the European Union in the 1950s, but despite its vital role as the EU's lending arm, it has not gained the media attention of institutions such as the European Commission or the European Parliament. That is now changing, however. The EIB is taking on a more high-profile role, financing projects in the fields of security and defence. This is a shift that our guest has referred to as a "seismic shock". Nadia Calviño is the president of the European Investment Bank, and the first woman and first Spaniard to lead the institution. She served as First Vice-President of the Spanish government and Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise until December 2023, in the cabinet of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Asked about the EIB's role in helping the EU to achieve its goals under the ReArmEU defence plan, Calviño replies: "Since I was appointed president, I had a clear idea that we needed to step up our support to Europe's security and defence capabilities. But each institution must play its role. We are not a defence ministry. We can finance large investment projects, which are quite key to the resilience of the European Union, be it in military mobility, research, space or military barracks and facilities. So, since 2024, we started to enlarge the scope and our ambition in this area. We have been visiting the different member states, talking to industry, identifying the gaps and where the EIB can really make a difference. And that is leading us right now to have a robust pipeline of 14 projects and doubling, again, investments in 2025."

Calviño makes it clear, however, that there will not be a radical overhaul of funding criteria in order finance the production of weapons, as some have called for. "We need to preserve our Triple-A rating," she explains. "Our strong Triple-A rating is what allows us to lend the money to the member states, to companies outside the Union, in very favourable conditions: low interest rates, long tenures, 30-year loans, for example. That's what makes projects possible."

We also discuss the EIB's vital help to Ukraine – the bank has provided €2.2 billion to the country since February 2022. "We are probably the most important financing partner for investments in Ukraine," Calviño affirms. "We are helping Ukrainian citizens lead a normal daily life, within the abnormal circumstances around them. We are financing infrastructures to provide clean drinking water in Bucha, the metro and trams in Kyiv, in Lviv, in the main cities, protection for schools, kindergartens, hospitals, also border connections with the European Union."

On the growing political and trade tensions between the Trump administration and the EU, Calviño maintains that "the US has benefited greatly from the WTO, the international rules-based world order, the dollar and free trade. And I think we have a shared interest in continuing to protect this multilateral world order. But the European Union should feel self-confident because we are a trade superpower. We are a technology superpower. We have our values, our strength right now."

For Calviño, making the energy transition a success is a "no-brainer" for Europe. "We need to become much more independent from fossil fuels and increase our energy efficiency.  As the European Investment Bank, we are really committed to green investments that represent more than 60 percent of our annual investments in Europe and around the world."

She elaborates: "We have just signed a very important agreement with the Orano producer here in France to reinforce the capacity to enrich uranium and thus reduce dependence on Russia. But we are also investing in grids and interconnectors, and investing in the deployment of renewable energies in France".

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Oihana Almandoz and Isabelle Romero

The EU is adapting to a new security situation, not just on its own continent, but also in the Middle East. Hopes of a more peaceful Syria after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad have so far been dashed, with sectarian massacres happening on the Syrian coast earlier in March – killings that have triggered an exodus of thousands of people across the border into Lebanon. Lebanon itself remains extremely fragile, economically and socially. And the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is clearly far from over, despite a ceasefire that was announced in January. The EU is working with the United Nations to address the challenges of humanitarian aid and reconstruction in this volatile region, and our guest has a lot of first-hand experience in that domain. Jorge Moreira da Silva is the executive director of UNOPS, the United Nations agency dedicated to implementing humanitarian and development projects. He is a former Member of the European Parliament, a former senior official at the OECD in Paris, and a former minister of environment and energy in the Portuguese government.

Asked about the Israeli air strikes on Gaza, Moreira da Silva says: "What is happening in Gaza is totally unacceptable. It's very unfortunate that we return to escalation. During the ceasefire in the last few weeks, we could provide support to the people (of Gaza). And now, with the strikes, with the conflict again, all aid has been stopped and we are seeing the direct impact on civilians, but also on the UN. I’ve been informed that the UN compound has been hit, and we are obviously following very carefully what is happening. I really hope that we can go back to where we were with the ceasefire and restart the political discussions. It’s the key moment to bring peace to Gaza and to the Middle East."

On the recent sectarian massacres of civilians on the Syrian coast, and the implications for Syria's post-Assad transition, Moreira da Silva states: "There was a clear call from the international community (at the recent Syria conference organised by the EU in Brussels), and a clear response from the minister of foreign affairs of Syria, committing precisely to ensure that there is a thorough investigation of what happened, and that those who perpetrated those crimes will be held to account." But, Moreira da Silva adds, nobody used the violence "as a pretext to delay action. That’s why I think there was a breakthrough in progress when donors stepped in to provide €6 billion to the people in Syria. I visited Damascus a few weeks ago, and Syria is still at the brink. It's in the middle of an immense humanitarian crisis, with almost 90 percent of the population living in need, in extreme poverty."

On the issue of Syrian refugees potentially returning home – a topic that EU member states are debating – Moreira da Silva suggests that "nobody will return if there is no security and no economic development. It's important that the donor community provides all the support that is needed in Syria, and that will be a way to get Syrians to come back. Not because we went them to come back, but because it’s important for them to go back to the places where they were happy."

Moreira da Silva also discusses UN and Western support to Ukraine. "We are doing early recovery, repairing infrastructure, rehabilitating entire neighbourhoods, rehabilitating energy and water networks. And this is what UNOPS is doing. We are supporting the Ukrainians, building schools, and doing mine action, which is removing unexploded ordnance." But he emphasises that aid should not be a "zero-sum game," in which resources might be shifted from Africa to Ukraine. "We need to support Africa. We need to support Ukraine. We need to support fragile states. That's why I'm very worried about cuts in overseas development assistance. I'm very worried about the cuts in solidarity globally. This is the moment when we need to raise the bar. It's not the moment to cut, but to bring more."

Programme prepared by Oihana Almandoz, Perrine Desplats, Isabelle Romero and Luke Brown

Just about everyone in the EU institutions and national capitals can agree that business as usual is no longer an option when it comes to security. With the US stepping back from Europe and NATO, and Ukraine under great pressure, the EU is mulling what looks like an ambitious plan to overhaul its defence policy. In theory, ReArmEU will raise €800 billion for this effort. But it is not clear exactly how all that money is going to be made available, nor how fast the effects of this overhaul are going to be felt. We unpack the EU's defence reforms with two MEPs who work on foreign affairs and security matters at the European Parliament.

Programme prepared by Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown, Isabelle Romero and Oihana Almandoz

The EU has just launched an ambitious-sounding defence plan, “ReArmEU”, and it is also publishing a landmark white paper on defence. The person at the heart of these initiatives is our guest on the programme; Andrius Kubilius is the EU Commissioner in charge of defence and space. A Lithuanian conservative who was twice prime minister of his country, he started this crucial job – the first time such a portfolio has been created at the Commission – in early December. But questions remain about the financing of ReArmEU – which would cost 800 billion euros – and on how exactly to incentivise the production of military hardware on European soil. 

“Our policy should not be naïve,” Kubilius asserts. “It should be to strengthen Ukrainian capabilities and our own capabilities even after peace is established. Because for us, it's very clear that even if peace will be established, Russia will not stop its military economy and production of weapons. They are producing four times more weapons than all the NATO member states are at the moment.” 

Kubilius goes on; “If we really are serious about our defence capabilities, then we need to look at how we overcome our shortages, which, for the time being, are creating temptation for Putin to test us.” Kubilius adds that, according to German intelligence, the Kremlin is discussing the possibility of testing NATO’s article 5 (the mutual defence clause) by 2030, “so that is what is making us ramp up our defence production, in order to be ready to defend ourselves.” 

Asked exactly where the money for the EU’s 800-billion-euro defence plan will come from, Kubilius states; “Some countries have possibilities to borrow (money) quite cheaply themselves on the markets, while other countries will benefit from what the European Union is proposing.” On that last point – the 180 billion euros in loans for defence investments – Kubilius insists that this is “not a shared burden because member states that use that loan will issue their own guarantees and will be responsible for repaying the loan. The same as what was done during the pandemic, when at least 20 countries used European Union loans.”  

Kubilius elaborates; “So this is nothing very new, really. The new thing is that the European Union is using this instrument in order to strengthen its own defence capability, and also opening possibilities to support Ukraine in a much more effective way.” 

A crucial sticking point in EU defence reform remains: how to build European military hardware in Europe. How will the Commission ensure this European preference? 

“The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) is going through negotiations in the Council and in the Parliament,” Kubilius answers. “European preference is a very clear strategic goal. Until now, the member states have been spending quite a lot of their national defence money outside of the European defence industry market. So we are not supporting the development of our defence industry in the most effective way. We need to change that. We want to incentivise member states to go for joint procurement and also to procure more European weapons. This is the how we can build our defence industry, and be ready to act in a real war.” 

Space is also in Kubilius’s remit, and we ask him how the EU might reduce its strategic dependence on the Trump administration in space. “We are developing new systems, for example IRIS Square,” Kubilius responds. “We hope it will be at the same level as (Elon Musk’s) Starlink, or even maybe better. It will be really a good alternative, but it will only become operational in 2029, 2030. So before that we shall have a precursor system, where national satellite communication systems will be integrated into one system and that will start to be operational in the middle of this year,” Kubilius concludes. 

Programme prepared by Luke Brown, Perrine Desplats, Oihana Almandoz et Isabelle Romero 

The European Union has long talked about reducing the bureaucratic burden on businesses. In the current EU mandate, there has also been a lot of emphasis on competitiveness – putting Europe’s industries, large or small, in a better position to rival the likes of American or Chinese industries. 

Now, the EU Commission has presented what it calls a “simplification shock”. Essentially, that means removing red tape in order to stimulate investment and growth, and to make European companies more competitive globally. The Commission points out that “over 60% of EU businesses see regulation as an obstacle to investment, and 55% of Small and Medium Enterprises cite regulatory and administrative burdens as their greatest challenge”. But some political groups and NGOs are concerned that the policy might be a smokescreen for rolling back standards on the environment and corporate due diligence. They suggest that that an entire deregulation agenda is hiding behind the euphemism of “simplification”. 

Programme prepared by Isabelle Romero, Perrine Desplats, Luke Brown and Oihana Almandoz