Talking Heads

Given China‘s pivotal role as the world’s second-largest economy, its recent refocusing on lifting growth should be a tailwind for other economies. On this Talking heads podcast, Zhikai Chen, head of emerging market equities, tells chief market strategist Daniel Morris that nearer neighbours such as Thailand should benefit from more tourism. The new focus on fueling growth should be good news for energy and materials exporters. In China itself, consumption should take over from fixed asset investment as the main growth driver.

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Picking investable assets for a portfolio can be hard. Fundamental analysis focuses on what investors believe will happen in the future. On this Talking heads podcast, senior quantitative analyst Frederic Abergel discusses the basics with chief market strategist Daniel Morris. They then go into how risks are managed in a portfolio and discuss three ways of measuring the performance of a multifactor portfolio.

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After a bright start, US mortgage-backed securities face a sunnier year in which this fixed income asset class could reverse part of the gloomy outcome of a challenging and volatile 2022. In this Talking heads podcast, John Carey, head of structured securities, tells chief market strategist  Daniel Morris that the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) segment now presents a reasonable choice for fixed income investors. It offers the prospect of significant yield pick-up relative to US Treasuries,  high credit quality and stable cash flows in a market environment where recession could cloud the appeal of corporate bonds and equities.

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In what can be expected to still be volatile currency markets, the US dollar looks set to lose further ground in 2023 as its lustre as a high-yielding hedge fades. Listen to this Talking heads podcast with John Bradley, head of foreign exchange, and chief market strategist Daniel Morris as they discuss the dollar’s sizeable correction in recent months and the likelihood that currency markets will see more interest in non-dollar cross rates. 

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We anticipate a better year for emerging market corporate debt on the back of a brighter outlook for China and the wider Asian region. Listen to this Talking heads podcast with Alaa Bushehri, head of emerging market credit, as she tells chief market strategist Daniel Morris that her highest convictions include China real estate, Indian renewables, Macau and selected South Korea sectors.

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Since biodiversity loss affects large swaths of the economy, it should be front of mind for investors. Not least because, as Adam Kanzer, head of stewardship for the Americas, points out, nature loss also makes meeting the world’s climate goals harder. 

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Sergey Pergamentsev, head of Institutional Structured Management in the Multi Asset Quantitative and Solutions team, and co-head of the Investment Insights Centre Andrew Craig discuss recent developments in liability-driven investing (LDI), a strategy institutional investors such as pension funds use to match investments and future liabilities. 

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The sell-off in bond markets this year has driven yields to levels that merit closer attention, says Victoria Whitehead, senior portfolio manager for European investment-grade (IG) credit. Victoria sees eurozone IG credit as attractive on the basis that risk premia are commensurate with much higher default rates than she thinks will actually materialise. 

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Slower growth (and eventually, lower rates of inflation) will likely come in 2023 thanks to restrictive central bank monetary policy. What conclusions should investors draw for their allocations to equities and fixed income around the world? 

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Thematic environmental strategies face countervailing forces in the near term. Support may come from the ‘green shoots’ of the recent growth stock recovery, offset by the downdraft of recessionary risk. Investors with a longer-term view should stay focused on the tailwinds and enduring drivers of demand including regulatory and legislative support. 

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