In this episode, Bill speaks with Senior Energy Economist Moutaz Altaghlibi about how the Iran conflict is affecting global energy markets, and whether Europe faces the risk of a new energy crisis. They explore why oil prices have remained relatively contained, but why gas poses a far bigger threat to European inflation and growth. Finally, they discuss how Europe’s improved energy resilience will shape the outlook in the months ahead.

(00:00:00) Introduction & Welcome

(00:02:00) Context: The Iran War & Its Timing

(00:04:30) Current State of Energy Flows: Strait of Hormuz

(00:08:00) Who Depends on This Energy? Asia vs. Europe

(00:11:00) Market Reaction: Oil & Gas Prices So Far

(00:14:00) Oil Market Context: OPEC Cuts & Pre-Conflict Surplus

(00:17:00) Oil Price Scenarios & Inflation Impact

(00:20:30) Shifting Focus to Gas: Lessons from the 2022 Energy Crisis

(00:24:00) Europe's Gas Storage Levels Today

(00:27:30) Worst-Case Gas Price Scenarios

(00:31:00) Macro Impact: Inflation, Second-Round Effects & the ECB

(00:34:30) Consumer Confidence & Household Spending Risk

(00:36:00) Cushioning Factors: China, Renewables & Diversification

(00:40:00) What's on Our Radar: Carbon Pricing & German Defence Spending

(00:43:30) Closing Remarks

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In this special festive episode, Bill talks with outgoing Chief Economist and incoming Chief Sustainability Officer Sandra Phlippen about the US's exorbitant privilege, and whether Europe might be able to capture some of it. They discuss the potential for a new common European debt instrument (eurobonds) to rival US Treasuries, which could help the euro rival the dollar as a global reserve currency. Finally, Sandra reflects on her new role and the banking sector's role in the energy transition.

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In the second episode of our new macroeconomics podcast, Bill Diviney speaks with Arjen van Dijkhuizen to unpack the remarkable resilience of global trade this year. The discussion covers the recent US-China trade deal, the resilience of global trade despite the unprecedented rise in US tariffs, and chokepoints as an emergent theme. The episode also highlights insights from our latest Global Outlook 2026 – The shifting world order, covering themes such as the dollar's exorbitant privilege, the potential of Eurobonds and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction to Talking Macro

00:34 Meet the Experts: Bill and Arjen

02:14 China's Economic Landscape

04:17 Global Trade Dynamics

06:36 The Eurobond Debate

08:49 Resilience of Global Trade

16:49 Chokepoints in Global Trade

23:37 Future Outlook and Key Events

27:33 Conclusion and Subscription Reminder

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In the first episode of ABN AMRO's new macroeconomic podcast, Bill Diviney (Head of Macro Research) and US economist Rogier Quaedvlieg dive into the recent attacks on Federal Reserve independence.

Why is Fed independence relevant to everyone, from investors to European mortgage holders? The hosts discuss Trump's attempts to gain control over the Fed, analyze stagflationary signals in the US, and explore how Fed policy spills over to Europe through exchange rates, bond markets and the ECB.

Also covered: an update on China's economic slowdown, mixed signals from the US economy, and why France's fiscal problems could become a challenge for ECB independence.

Talking Macro offers a monthly European perspective on major developments in the global economy, with practical insights for both professionals and interested individuals.

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This is Talking Macro, ABN AMRO's podcast dedicated to making sense of the global economy from a European perspective. Hosted by Bill Diviney, Head of Macro Research at ABN AMRO, each episode breaks down the hot topics shaping markets and economies worldwide.

Each month, Bill is joined by expert colleagues from ABN AMRO's research team who bring deep specialist knowledge on specific regions and topics. Together, they cut through the noise to explain what's really driving economic change and what it means for the months ahead.

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