On the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to unpack the key developments in global macro and markets, including:

• What to expect as the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff pause approaches expiry
• Whether the US and EU can strike a trade deal in time
• Why China is central to the US–Vietnam trade agreement
• What’s really troubling about the passage of Trump’s “big, beautiful” tax bill
• What moves in gilt and sterling markets this week revealed about the UK Labour Party’s fiscal credibility

Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis discusses her new in-depth report on the outlook for global trade amid rising tariffs. She explains why her forecasts challenge the narrative of deglobalisation and also shares highlights from our latest Global Economic Outlook, including China’s looming slowdown and India’s relative outperformance.

Analysis and data referenced in this episode:

Data: China-US Trade Rerouting
Data: Tariff Impact Model
Read: What do tariffs mean for global trade?
Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor