Some say customers are spending less

Every receipt brings Richard Shea confirmation.

For 100 pieces of 10-foot-long two-by-fours that "not long ago" cost $400, the construction company owned by the former Philipstown supervisor just paid $661. Most of the lumber comes from Canada, whose wood products face tariffs that rose to 35 percent this month.

Higher import taxes on aluminum and steel are also driving up prices on metal products ranging from electrical wiring to ladders and scaffolding, he said.

Customers have responded in predictable ways. Two projects totaling $100,000 were cancelled, he said, and others have been scaled back. People are deferring maintenance such as roof replacements. "By this point in the summer, we have done at least a dozen roofs," he said. "This summer, we have done two, and one was due to a fire so it couldn't be delayed."

Five months into the Trump administration's blitzkrieg of tariffs, businesses in the Highlands, and by extension their customers, are starting to see higher prices that can be attributed to the added costs of importing raw supplies and finished products from nearly 70 countries that trade with the U.S. - even as higher levies on imports from China, our largest trading partner, have been paused for three months.

After the introduction in April of 10 percent "reciprocal" tariffs on most imports, products from most countries began being taxed at 15 percent under higher levies launched on Aug. 7. Some tariffs are as high as 50 percent. The average tariff of 18.6 percent is the highest since 1933 and will cost the average household $2,400 this year, according to calculations by the Budget Lab at Yale University.

The combined tariffs disproportionately affect clothes and textiles, according to the Budget Lab. It estimates shoe prices will rise nearly 40 percent temporarily and 19 percent in the longer term, while apparel will rise 37 immediately and 18 percent in the longer term.

Susan Johnson, who co-owns the Denning's Point Distillery in Beacon, said the prices of bottles from China, Eastern Europe and Mexico that hold the company's bourbons, brandys, gins and vodkas were rising, along with "spotty availability."

At Cold Spring Fish in Philipstown, Alejandra Awad said she is seeing increases of 15 percent to 25 percent in supplies like paper goods, food containers and bags, and in the fish she buys at Hunts Point. She has tried to keep sticker prices stable, but that means smaller profits.

"There is a lot of uncertainty that we are feeling as a small business," said Awad. "We are not sure the extent of the consequences and how much it will affect us in the long term."

The tariffs will almost certainly result in higher food prices, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation. The U.S. doesn't make enough of some products, like bananas or coffee, to satisfy demand. Along with fish, beer and liquor are likely to get more expensive, the foundation said.

The U.S. Wine Trade Alliance and other alcohol industry trade groups recently sent a letter to President Donald Trump that warned a 15 percent tariff on European wines and spirits could result in 25,000 lost jobs in the U.S. and cost the industry nearly $2 billion in sales.

General Motors said on July 22 that the impact of the tariffs could get more pronounced in the third quarter. GM has estimated the tariffs will decrease its bottom line by $4 billion to $5 billion. Toyota reported on Aug. 7 a 37 percent drop in profits in the second quarter, cutting its full-year earnings forecasts.

Ralph Moran, whose Marterra Specialty Foods in Philipstown imports salmon, sea bass, crab meat, wagyu beef and other products from Chile, along with salmon from Norway, said he paid minimal tariffs before Trump began his second term in January. Now, imports from Chile face a levy of 10 percent and from Norway, 15 percent.

Their impact on what customers pay is less straightforward because wholesale prices for seafood are expected to fluc...