Interest rates shape every investment decision, yet their impact on companies is often misunderstood. In this episode of Wealthy + Wise, ausbiz's Nadine Blayney is joined by William Buck chief economist Besa Deda and Teaminvest’s Andrew Coleman to unpack what a rising-rate environment really means for investors.
The program begins with the macro picture. Besa explains the outlook for interest rates, how higher borrowing costs are flowing through to consumer and business confidence, and what the Reserve Bank is ultimately trying to achieve by tightening policy. Is the goal to cool demand, reset inflation expectations, or something more structural? And how should long-term investors read those signals? From there, the conversation turns to valuation. Andrew Coleman walks through the very different ways rising rates affect growth investors versus value investors. Using clear, real-world examples, he shows how higher discount rates can materially change the price a growth investor is willing to pay, even when nothing about the underlying business has shifted.
The Head to Head segment brings two distinct investment philosophies into sharp focus. Fund manager Michael Carmody from Centennial Asset Management outlines a flexible, risk-first approach, he says while most of the fund’s alpha has come from small caps, he argues protecting capital through the cycle matters more than chasing every rally.
With rates expected to keep rising, Michael is blunt about where he doesn’t want to be: interest-rate sensitive sectors such as banks, non-bank lenders and property trusts, where higher funding costs and softer demand squeeze earnings. Retail, too, deserves caution as consumers pull back.
Andrew Coleman counters with a more concentrated, long-term lens. If a portfolio is built around 20–30 companies chosen to be beneficiaries across cycles, a change in rates shouldn’t alter the investment case. The key is balance sheets and moats as heavily indebted businesses are vulnerable, but resilient franchises can keep compounding regardless of macro noise.
The debate highlights the tension between earnings risk and sentiment risk and how different styles navigate the same storm.
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