00:00:00 Introduction:Welcome to Telltales, an investing podcast hosted by Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti. Each week we discuss topics ranging from geopolitics and macroeconomics to energy and technology. Stay tuned as we explore the intricacies of global markets and investments.

00:00:34 World Oil Supply and Demand:Dive into the dynamics of the world oil supply and demand, exploring geopolitical impacts, trade disruptions, and market oversupply.

00:01:30 US Gas Demand and Supply:Discussing the shifts in US gas demand and supply, including analysis on price trends, production insights, and future predictions.

00:03:41 Government Spending Overview:An examination of U.S. government revenues and expenses, understanding the implications of fiscal policies and spending trends.

00:04:25 Amazon Enters the Car Business:Exploring Amazon's venture into the automotive industry and its potential impacts on traditional dealers, manufacturers, and the broader market.

00:10:47 The Future of Datacenter Spending - On Prem vs Off Prem:Discussing evolving trends in datacenter spending, focusing on the debate between on-premises and off-premises solutions.

00:16:50 Healthcare Innovations and Investments:Spotlighting major players in the healthcare sector like BioNTech, Moderna, Pfizer, and others, analyzing financials and future outlooks.

00:19:46 BioNTech vs Moderna:Comparing and contrasting the strategies and outlooks of BioNTech and Moderna in the rapidly evolving healthcare landscape.

00:22:23 Vertex Update:Providing updates on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, discussing their financial health, research innovations, and market position.

00:25:46 Bristol Myers Squibb Acquires Ryzen Biopharma:Discussing the recent M&A activity with Bristol Myers Squibb's acquisition of Ryzen Biopharma and its implications for the industry.

00:28:09 Conclusion:Wrapping up the episode with final thoughts and a reminder for listeners to tune in again next week for more insights.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Title: E2351 - Geopolitics, Macroeconomics, Energy, and Tech Discussed in Latest Episode

Summary: In this week's Telltales podcast, Hunt, Mike, and Jason cover a range of topics including world oil supply/demand, US gas supply/demand, US government revenues and expenses, AI models running on phones vs the cloud, implications of China-Taiwan relations, streaming platforms bidding on live sports rights, healthcare companies like Lantheus and Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and more.

Content:

0:00 - Intro 0:34 - World oil supply/demand dynamics - $TSM, $ASML 1:34 - Concerns about growing US natural gas supply glut 3:01 - Positive shift in US govt spending trajectory - $AAPL 4:18 - Would you rather own Apple or US govt debt? - $AAPL 6:20 - Will AI models dominate more on edge devices or the cloud? - $GOOG, $MSFT 11:14 - Potential impact of China push for Taiwan reunification - $NVDA, $AMD, $INTC, $TSM, $ASML 15:09 - Streaming platforms bidding for live sports rights - $NFLX, $DIS, $AMZN, $GOOG 18:31 - Preview of topics for next week - $T, $VZ, $TMUS, $MA, $PYPL 19:05 - Dropping Pfizer, adding Eli Lilly to healthcare watchlist - $PFE, $LLY 19:49 - Lantheus phase 3 cancer drug trial data - $LNTH 23:06 - Vertex Pharma's non-opioid pain drug - $VRTX 26:10 - Disclaimer

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

The "Telltales" podcast, co-hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Hunt Lawrence, and Jason Wallace, is a weekly discussion focusing on key financial insights. Originating from a decade-long in-person meeting initiated by Lawrence, it transitioned to a remote format during the pandemic. The podcast records their weekly calls discussing the "Cashflow Memo," a document summarizing financials of around 70 companies across various sectors. The podcast aims to guide listeners through significant financial trends and data, aiding in informed investment decisions. It's available on platforms like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube. For more details, and to download your copy of the memo, visit telltales.us 0:00:00 - Intro 0:00:24 - Exhibit B: Analysis of Gas Markets: Discussing current trends and predictions in gas markets. 0:01:34 - Exhibit C: Oil Supply and Demand (OIL): Insights into oil market dynamics and future outlook. 0:04:02 - Exhibit B: Natural Gas Market Insights (NG): Deep dive into natural gas market conditions. 0:05:13 - Exhibit A: Government Cash Flow: Examining government financials and implications. 0:07:06 - Who Will Grow Cashflow?: Analyzing the cash flow growth of major tech companies. 0:10:56 - Page 1: AI and Cloud Services in Tech Sector: The role of AI and cloud services in the tech industry. 0:13:12 - Page 8: Retail Sector Analysis: Comparative analysis of major retail players. 0:20:55 - Page 15: Healthcare Sector Insights: Exploring innovations and financials in healthcare.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

0:00:00 - Introduction: Overview of the podcast's key economic and financial topics. 0:01:51 - Oil Market Dynamics: Analysis of the complexities in the oil supply and demand. 0:03:56 - U.S. Gas Supply and Demand: Discussion on the U.S. gas industry's current trends and future outlook. 0:06:00 - U.S. Government Financial Health: Insights into the U.S. government's fiscal situation, focusing on revenues and expenses. 0:09:34 - Sponsor Segment: Acknowledgement of our sponsors and their support. 0:10:52 - Company Cash Flow Analysis: Detailed examination of free cash flow changes in various companies. 0:30:00 - Preview of Next Week: Introduction to upcoming topics focusing on cash flow momentum in different sectors. 0:30:57 - Closing Remarks: Summary and key takeaways, along with a look ahead to the next episode.

Covered Companies:

AT&T: #T

Verizon: #VZ

T-Mobile: #TMUS

Netflix: #NFLX

Walt Disney: #DIS

Amazon: #AMZN

Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook): #META

Apple: #AAPL

Alphabet (Google): #GOOGL

Intel: #INTC

Tesla: #TSLA

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode Title: "Telltales E2348: The Next Cashflow King'" Release Date: November 29, 2023 Duration: 33:10 Episode

Summary: Dive into a riveting discussion in this episode of "Telltales," where we unravel the dynamic world of technology and media giants. We begin with an in-depth analysis of US gas demand and supply, followed by a critical examination of the US government's financial health. The episode heats up as we explore potential challengers to Apple's cash flow crown and speculate on Tesla's journey to a significant free cash flow milestone. Delve into the strategic positioning of Meta in the AI space, and join us as we compare the content strategies of major media platforms like Netflix, YouTube, and others. We wrap up with the latest insights on telecom leaders Verizon, ATT, and T-Mobile. This episode is packed with insightful analyses and predictions, making it a must-listen for enthusiasts and professionals in the tech and media landscape.

Key Highlights: [00:03:52] US Gas Demand / Supply: Analyzing trends and projections. [00:04:32] US Gov't Finances: Exploring government revenues and expenses. [00:04:50] AAPL Cashflow Contenders: Who could surpass Apple? [00:07:37] Surpassing AAPL's Cash Flow: Potential business models and market opportunities. [00:15:01] Tesla's FCF Milestone: Predicting Tesla's financial future. [00:21:04] Media Strategies Comparison: Netflix, Meta, YouTube, and more. [00:26:30] META's AI Positioning: Meta's strategy in AI. [00:28:05] Telecom Update: Insights on Verizon, ATT, & T-Mobile. [00:31:07] Closing & Disclaimer: Important reminders.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Title: OpenAI Drama & Impact on Software & Semiconductor Companies Hosted by: Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, Mike Nicoletti Chapters: [00:00:00] Introduction to Telltales Podcast [00:00:46] Discussion on World Oil Supply/Demand and OPEC Meeting Implications [00:01:58] Analysis of US Gas Demand/Supply Trends [00:03:50] Examination of US Government Revenues and Expenses [00:05:55] Impact of OpenAI Drama on Semiconductor and Software Companies [00:25:00] Future of GPUs in Consumer Electronics [00:29:30] White House AI Executive Order and its Implications [00:30:29] Closing Remarks and Preview of Next Week's Topics Key Highlights: World Oil Dynamics: Insights into the latest OPEC meeting and its implications on global oil supply and demand. US Gas Trends: An in-depth look at the US gas market, examining production, demand, and future projections. Government Spending: Analysis of US government spending and the financial implications for the economy. OpenAI's Structural Changes: Discussion on the recent turmoil at OpenAI, its impact on the tech industry, and potential benefits for other tech giants. Future of Consumer Electronics: Exploring how GPUs and AI accelerators are shaping the future of laptops and smartphones. Policy Impacts: How the White House's AI executive order might influence open-source AI models and tech companies. Sponsorship: Episode sponsored by Top Market Capital.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Description: Join Hunt Lawrence, Jason Wallace, and Mike Nicoletti in this insightful episode of the Telltales podcast, where we delve deep into the world of investing, economics, and technology. Get expert opinions on current market trends, investment strategies, and a detailed analysis of various sectors.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro and Disclaimer 00:57 Exhibit C: Analysis of World Oil Supply and Demand 02:38 Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand and Supply 04:30 Exhibit A: U.S. Government Revenues and Expenses 06:35 Discussion on Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, and Five Below 13:35 Analysis of Comcast and Charter in the Cable Industry 18:41 Insights on JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley 21:54 Microsoft, AI, and Future of Tech Investments 28:42 Outro & Disclaimer

Highlighted Topics:

World Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics

U.S. Gas Market Trends

Fiscal Analysis of U.S. Government

In-depth Look at Companies like Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, and Five Below

Cable Industry Analysis Focusing on Comcast and Charter

Financial Institutions: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley

The Role of AI in Future Investments, with a Focus on Microsoft

The Leadership and Strategy of Companies like NVIDIA and Intel

Links and Resources:

Telltales Newsletter - www.telltales.us

The Verge Article on Microsoft AI Chips - https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/15/23960345/microsoft-cpu-gpu-ai-chips-azure-maia-cobalt-specifications-cloud-infrastructure

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode 23.45 of the Telltales Podcast delves into the intricate world of market investments, offering listeners a comprehensive analysis across several dynamic sectors. Join us as we dissect the latest trends in oil and gas markets, exploring the geopolitical and economic factors at play. We take a deep dive into natural gas demands, the US fiscal landscape, and the strategic maneuvers of key players in the energy sector. The discussion takes a pivot to the healthcare industry, where we evaluate the financial health and strategic decisions of giants such as UnitedHealth, CVS, Regeneron, and Biogen. In the ever-evolving tech realm, we analyze Apple's latest earnings, debate the competitive landscape of GPUs with NVIDIA and AMD at the helm, and speculate on the implications of export controls on global distribution, particularly in AI and data center spending. This episode is a must-listen for investors and enthusiasts keen on staying ahead in the investment game, with insights and commentary from our expert hosts. Whether you're looking to understand the current market scenarios or seeking foresight into the future of these pivotal industries, episode 23.45 is your guide through the complex currents of today's investment opportunities.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

In this week’s episode...

[00:01:17] Energy Sector: Kickstarting the episode with a discussion on the current trends and future prospects in the energy sector. What does the landscape look like, and what should investors be aware of?

[00:06:01] Banking: Analyzing the financial health and performance of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Goldman Sachs (GS). What do these banks have in store for investors?

[00:06:54] Industrial and Construction: Delving into Caterpillar (CAT), Deere & Company (DE), and other key players. How are these companies navigating the current economic climate?

[00:08:51] Pharmaceutical Innovators: A look at Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and others leading the charge in medical innovation. What should investors know about their recent developments and future potential?

[00:11:58] Consumer Favorites: Discussing the performance and strategies of McDonald's (MCD), Starbucks (SBUX), Chipotle (CMG), and more. How are these companies maintaining their appeal to consumers?

[00:13:44] Logistics and Apparel: Analyzing FedEx (FDX), UPS, Nike (NKE), Costco (COST), and their roles in their respective industries. What trends are shaping their futures?

[00:15:44] Materials and Energy: Exploring Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), and others driving innovation in materials and energy. What investment opportunities might they present?

[00:18:37] Tech Titans: Diving into Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (Google) (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and their impact on the tech industry. How are these giants shaping the future?

[00:25:14] Semiconductor Leaders: A closer look at NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD, Intel (INTC), and other key players in the semiconductor industry. What should investors expect from this rapidly evolving sector?

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com

Episode 23.34 Chapters[00:01:19] Oil, Gas, & Macro: Exhibits A, B & C[00:03:06] Page 5: $CHTR / CMCSA 0.00%↑ [00:06:12] Page 6: $T / $VZ / TMUS 0.00%↑ [00:09:32] Page 7: $MA / $V / PYPL 0.00%↑ [00:11:19] Page 8: $WMT / $TGT / $LOW / $HD / KMX 0.00%↑ [00:12:16] Page 9: $XOM / $CVX / $COP / $OXY / LNG 0.00%↑ [00:14:27] Page 10: $KMI / $EPD / $ET / WES 0.00%↑ [00:15:14] Page 11: $EOG / $MGY / $PR / FANG 0.00%↑ [00:15:40] Page 12: $AR / $EQT / $CHK / AM 0.00%↑ [00:17:11] Sponsor Break[00:17:46] Page 4: $META, TikTok & Cigarettes[00:19:36] Page 1&4: AI Cloud Strategy: $AMZN vs MSFT 0.00%↑ [00:21:12] Page 4: Would you rather: $NFLX or $DIS?[00:22:25] Page 3: $NVDA / $AMD / $INTC / $TSMC / ASML 0.00%↑ [00:23:39] Page 2: $MSFT earnings

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com