The end of the Iran conflict was, in many ways, anti-climactic: a memorandum of understanding, a partially reopened shipping lane, and a great deal of squinting at tanker-tracking data. Our second-quarter outlook was written with oil tankers idling outside the Strait of Hormuz and markets pricing catastrophe. Three months later, the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point framework, the Strait is haltingly reopening and oil prices have collapsed. We said the Strait would be substantially open by late May; the ceasefire came in April and the framework in June.

We said the technology selloff was a valuation problem, not an earnings problem, and an attractive entry point; as of this writing, semiconductor stocks have since risen roughly 80% this year, which is the market’s way of agreeing with unnerving enthusiasm. And we warned of an inflationary impulse which has already occurred.

For the 3rdQ, our advice is simple: take profits where success created concentration and diversify holdings for greater protection against market risk.

SOURCES

• Absolute Strategy Research, “Return to risk-on,” Asset Allocation Quarterly, Zahra Ward-Murphy & ASR Research Team, June 17, 2026
• Absolute Strategy Research, “Resilient Economy Drives Sector Shift,” Nick Nelson, June 25, 2026
• Absolute Strategy Research, “Stick with Japan, Asia ex-Japan & US,” Nick Nelson, July 2, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “Further And Longer,” Global Strategy, Chen Zhao, June 22, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “The Aftermath Playbook,” Global Asset Allocation, Bassam Nawfal, June 16, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “WACC Attack,” Equity Strategy Monthly, Nick Giorgi, July 1, 2026
• BCA Research, “Monthly TAA: Monetization — The Next Frontier Of The AI Bull Market,” Juan Correa et al., June 1, 2026
• BCA Research, “Geopolitical Outlook For Q3, 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., June 29, 2026
• BCA Research, “Is The US Labor Market Tightening Or Easing?” US Bond Strategy, Ryan Swift, July 3, 2026
• Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Why Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine Now,” Heather Williams, September 27, 2024
• Oxford Economics, “Good news is bad news for the Fed,” Country Economic Forecast US, Michael Pearce, June 10, 2026
• Oxford Economics, “Job market losing its sheen adds to the case for an extended Fed pause,” Weekly Economic Briefing US, Bernard Yaros, July 2, 2026