Tepp Talks: A podcast with David Tepp

The end of the Iran conflict was, in many ways, anti-climactic: a memorandum of understanding, a partially reopened shipping lane, and a great deal of squinting at tanker-tracking data. Our second-quarter outlook was written with oil tankers idling outside the Strait of Hormuz and markets pricing catastrophe. Three months later, the United States and Iran have signed a 14-point framework, the Strait is haltingly reopening and oil prices have collapsed. We said the Strait would be substantially open by late May; the ceasefire came in April and the framework in June.

We said the technology selloff was a valuation problem, not an earnings problem, and an attractive entry point; as of this writing, semiconductor stocks have since risen roughly 80% this year, which is the market’s way of agreeing with unnerving enthusiasm. And we warned of an inflationary impulse which has already occurred.

For the 3rdQ, our advice is simple: take profits where success created concentration and diversify holdings for greater protection against market risk.

SOURCES

• Absolute Strategy Research, “Return to risk-on,” Asset Allocation Quarterly, Zahra Ward-Murphy & ASR Research Team, June 17, 2026
• Absolute Strategy Research, “Resilient Economy Drives Sector Shift,” Nick Nelson, June 25, 2026
• Absolute Strategy Research, “Stick with Japan, Asia ex-Japan & US,” Nick Nelson, July 2, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “Further And Longer,” Global Strategy, Chen Zhao, June 22, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “The Aftermath Playbook,” Global Asset Allocation, Bassam Nawfal, June 16, 2026
• Alpine Macro, “WACC Attack,” Equity Strategy Monthly, Nick Giorgi, July 1, 2026
• BCA Research, “Monthly TAA: Monetization — The Next Frontier Of The AI Bull Market,” Juan Correa et al., June 1, 2026
• BCA Research, “Geopolitical Outlook For Q3, 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., June 29, 2026
• BCA Research, “Is The US Labor Market Tightening Or Easing?” US Bond Strategy, Ryan Swift, July 3, 2026
• Center for Strategic and International Studies, “Why Russia Is Changing Its Nuclear Doctrine Now,” Heather Williams, September 27, 2024
• Oxford Economics, “Good news is bad news for the Fed,” Country Economic Forecast US, Michael Pearce, June 10, 2026
• Oxford Economics, “Job market losing its sheen adds to the case for an extended Fed pause,” Weekly Economic Briefing US, Bernard Yaros, July 2, 2026

Artificial intelligence has relentlessly inundated every facet of our lives, sparking a massive surge in energy demand to power this new technology. At the same time, the Iran conflict has critically disrupted global energy markets. Energy has always been top of mind for nations around the world, but a clear shift is now taking place: those who do not invest appropriately will almost certainly fall behind.

How, then, will nations generate the electricity to meet the demands of AI?  

By David Tepp for Advisor Perspectives, published May 22, 2026

Sources

• Alpine Macro, "Post-War Oil Market: From Scarcity To Glut?", written by Kelly Xu, April 20, 2026
•  Alpine Macro, "Uranium: The Bull Case Deepens", written by Noah Ramos, February 17, 2026
•  Alpine Macro, "The AI Commodity Nexus: Powering Demand For Energy And Metals – Special Report", written by Kelly Xu, February 2, 2026
•  Alpine Macro, "AI, Energy, And The Grid – A Collision Course", written by Noah Ramos, August 6, 2025
•  Alpine Macro, "Renewable Energy: Exploring Unconventional Opportunities", written by Noah Ramos, October 29, 2025
•  Absolute Strategy Research, "Funky Correlations & Missing Links #19: Is the Market Complacent about the Risk of Stagflation?", written by David Bowers and Ian Harnett, April 22, 2026
•  Absolute Strategy Research, "Investing in a Resource-Constrained World", written by Michael Hessel, March 4, 2026
•  BCA Research, "Uranium: The Bull Case Just Got Enriched", written by Jeremie Peloso, April 13, 2026
•  Rosenberg Research, "Middle East Crisis Makes Alternative Energy a Big Winner", written by Robert Embree, March 25, 2026
•  Rosenberg Research, "Building the Future: The Investment Case for Private Infrastructure", written by John Smolinski and David Rosenberg, September 4, 2025
•  Rosenberg Research, "Early Morning with Dave", written by David Rosenberg, March 19, 2026
•  Oxford Economics, "Global oil demand set to peak in 2028", written by Jack Reid, February 11, 2026
•  Oxford Economics, "Stable long-run inflation expectations argue against a rate hike", written by Grace Zwemmer, March 30, 2026

By most metrics, the U.S. stock market is exorbitantly expensive. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio remains well above historical averages, and valuations in the technology sector are stretching into territory that makes even seasoned investors anxious. And yet, many buyers remain fully committed. This leaves investors and analysts arguing over whether current prices are justified by earnings expectations or whether the market is pricing in a level of perfection that is rarely delivered.

By David Tepp, 'Forbes Councils Member' for Forbes Finance Council

Published October 21, 2025

Now that we are six months into the second Trump administration, it is worth revisiting the economic philosophy that I refer to as “TrumpBessenomics.” The term captures the fusion of Donald Trump’s populist, growth-oriented agenda with the strategic and data-driven approach of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

While it is too early to evaluate the effectiveness of "TrumpBessenomics", what follows is a targeted assessment of actual policy execution and economic outcomes so far, focused on four key areas: growth and markets, fiscal policy, trade strategy, and institutional integrity.

By David Tepp

Published in Advisor Perspectives August 12, 2025

Sources:

• https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bessents-3-3-3-economic-growth-plan-and-the-5-4-3-threat-treasury-secretary-nominee-387250a8
• Oxford Economics, “Q2 GDP Rebound Masks Glowing Fundamentals,” written by Bernard Yaros, July 30, 2025
• BCA Research, “One Big Beautiful Basket,” written by Max Malakveitshouk, July 16, 2025
• https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/30/politics/doge-musk-government-savings
• JP Morgan Chase, “Guide to the Markets,” July 31, 2025
• Oxford Economics, “Made in America – The Manufacturing Sectors With the Best Prospects,” written by Nico Palesch, July 22, 2025
• Oxford Economics, “PCE Nowcast – Tariffs Are Starting to Hit Inflation,” written by Grace Zwemmer, July 16, 2025
• Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth,” written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025

In an age when investors obsess over quarterly earnings, AI hype, and the Federal Reserve, it’s easy to overlook what actually makes the global economy tick: the inputs that power, build, and sustain growth.

By David Tepp

Published in Advisor Perspectives October 13, 2025

Sources:

• Absolute Strategy Return, “From Weaponised Trade to Weaponised Capital:, written by Ian Harnett, April 3, 2025
• Absolute Strategy Return, “Controversies, Convictions & Context #4”, written by Ian Harnett and David Bowers, May 8, 2025
• Absolute Strategy Return, “Water, Food & Climate: The New Security Imperative”, written by Michael Penn, May 30, 2025
• Absolute Strategy Return, “The Critical Metal Catalysts”, written by Michael Hessel, July 4, 2025
• Absolute Strategy Return, “Energy Transition: Myths & Realities”, written by Michael Penn, July 22, 2025
• Absolute Strategy Return, “Real Asset Revival”, written by Zahra Ward-Murphy, August 8, 2025
• Alpine Macro, “Future Water Security Hinges on Innovation”, written by Noah Ramos, November 20, 2024
• Alpine Macro, “Adapting Commodity Strategy to Shifting Correlation Dynamics, written by Kelly Xu, August 5, 2025
• Alpine Macro, “AI, Energy, And the Grid – A Collision Course”, written by Noah Ramos, August 6, 2025
• Rosenberg Research, “Making Uncertainty Great Again: Take Three”, written by David Rosenberg, September 2025
• Oxford Economics, “ICE Arrests Proving a Hinderance to Labor Force Growth”, written by Matthew Martin, August 4, 2025
• Oxford Economics, “The Young and the Anxious”, written by Ryan Sweet, March 26, 2025

Our first quarter outlook described 2026 as a story of steady growth in the first half, with the potential for inflation to re-emerge later in the year as fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and improving business conditions combined to reignite demand. The Iran conflict, which began on February 28th with coordinated US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, compressed and scrambled that sequence.

SOURCES

• - Absolute Strategy Research, “Asset Allocation: Reduce Risk as Iran War Extends,” Zahra Ward-Murphy, March 18, 2026
• - Absolute Strategy Research, “Six Big Investment Issues from Our Global Marketing,” March 25, 2026
• - Absolute Strategy Research, “The High-Flation Regime & Bonds,” written by Ebrahim Rahbari, April 1, 2026
• - Alpine Macro, “Tropic Thunder: War Time Equity Positioning,” Nick Giorgi, April 1, 2026
• - Alpine Macro, “In Brief: Iran — Winner, Winner, TACO Dinner?,” Dan Alamariu, April 1, 2026
• - BCA Research, “Quarterly TAA: Anatomy of a Supply Shock,” Juan Correa, Lucas Laskey et al., April 1, 2026
• - BCA Research, “Geopolitical Strategy: The Shortest Geopolitical Outlook for Q2 2026,” Matt Gertken et al., April 3, 2026
• - GeoFutures, “Sketches of the Middle East After the Iran War”, written by Kamran Bokhari, April 2, 2026
• - Numera Analytics, “Global Asset Allocation: The Fog of War — Should Investors Buy the Dip?,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 17, 2026
• - Numera Analytics, “US Asset Allocation,” Joaquin Kritz Lara et al., March 19, 2026
• - Oxford Economics, “GAA Equities: US Equities Can Weather the Oil Shock,” Daniel Grosvenor, March 16, 2026
• - Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Cross Asset: Move Closer to Benchmark as We Dial Back Risk,” Ainsworth-Grace, Corominas & Grosvenor, March 12, 2026
• - Oxford Economics / Alpine Macro, “GAA Fixed Income: Central Banks Will Need to Lean Against the Wind,” Javier Corominas, March 13, 2026

The leap from traditional computing to quantum computing is a revolutionary economic event. Quantum computing could alter productivity, industrial structure, capital allocation, and even the balance of global power. The transformation won’t happen overnight, but investors who wait for proof may find they have waited too long.

By David Tepp 

Published in Advisor Perspectives January 12, 2026

Sources
Alpine Macro, “Opportunities in the Quantum Ecosystem”, written by Noah Ramos, November 12, 2025

Alpine Macro, “The Dawn of Quantum Utility”, written by Noah Ramos, March 5, 2025

Alpine Macro, “The Quantum Landscape: Accelerating Disruption”, written by Noah Ramos, October 30, 2024

Deloitte Insights, “Quantum Computing Over the Next Five Years”, written by Deloitte Insights Contributers, May 2025

Financial Times, “Google and IMB Believe First Workable Quantum Computer is in Sight”, written by Richard Waters, August 12, 2025

Financial Times, “The World Should Prepare for the Looming Quantum Era, written by the Editorial Board, August 21, 2025

McKinsey Digital, “Quantum Technology Monitor”, written by McKinsey Technology Council, McKinsey & Co, June 2025

Wall Street Journal, “Trump Administration in Talks to Take Equity States in Quantum Computing Firms”, written by Amrith Ramkumar, October 23, 2025

Gold’s rally may have grabbed more headlines, but both silver and the yellow metal warrant closer analysis. Both commodities are surging—gold setting fresh highs above $2,500 an ounce and silver crossing $50 for the first time—and yet, neither may have reached their ceiling.

By David Tepp, Forbes Councils Member, for Forbes Finance Council.

Published December 9, 2025

​For generations, retirement followed a familiar script. You worked for 30 or 40 years, paid off the mortgage, collected a pension, turned on Social Security and stepped into a well-earned life of leisure. That model made sense in its time. Today, the structure that supported that version of retirement has largely disappeared, yet many people still think of retirement as a single date circled on the calendar. In reality, many successful modern retirements are a gradual transition.

By David Tepp, Forbes Council Member. For Forbes Finance Council.

Published April 1, 2026

For many decades, international trade flourished with the United States as the lead architect. Global supply chains stretched across continents, capital flowed freely, and commodities were treated as cyclical inputs rather than strategic assets. With nations now turning their focus inward, however, that framework is no longer applicable.

By David Tepp for Advisor Perspectives. Published March 9, 2026.