That70s Da

An Era File episode. In 2000, the companies building the internet's pipes started lending their customers the money to buy the equipment - and the orders looked wonderful right up until they didn't. This week, with AI infrastructure stocks down hard (Dell off 11% in a single day, the AI compute group down roughly 11% on the week), the same pattern is tapping me on the shoulder. When the build-out gets financed by the people selling the build-out, the question is who really holds the risk.

Read the article: https://that70sda.substack.com/p/the-dealer-who-lends-you-the-down

Not financial advice.

Inflation came in at 3.7% over the past year - hotter than expected. The S&P 500 slipped about 1%, the Nasdaq fell about 1.9%, and chip stocks went down for a seventh straight day. But one hot month isn't a trend. This episode asks the only question that matters after a print like this: is it weather, or is the climate changing? With the September 2022 lesson - the damage wasn't the one hot month, it was the hot month that followed, and the one after that.

Read the article: https://that70sda.substack.com/p/the-weather-was-hot-is-the-climate

Not financial advice.

The S&P 500 sits at record highs - but the crowd underneath them is thin, and the September inflation report lands before breakfast. Recorded the evening before the print, this episode lays out my bias up front - an AI-driven boom, still early, the kind that climbs stairs rather than escalators - and what a hot or cool number would actually change. The number will be old news by the time you listen. The thinking won't be.

Read the article: https://that70sda.substack.com/p/record-high-thin-crowd-a-test-before

Not financial advice.