Something big is happening in corporate America, and it's barely making headlines. In this episode of Off The Wall, David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CIPM, CFA break down one of the most interesting stories in Q1 earnings: companies are pouring money into long-term growth instead of handing it back to shareholders. CapEx is up 38%. Buybacks? Up just 1%. They unpack what that means, who's doing the spending, and why the 35-year playbook of returning cash to shareholders may be getting rewritten.

Then the conversation shifts to the Fed. Chairman Powell is out, and Kevin Warsh is in. Dave and Nate walk through who Warsh is, why his background is an important piece of the conversation, and what a more flexible, less predictable Fed chair could mean for interest rates, inflation, and your wealth strategy.

Finally, they tackle a listener question about using AI to evaluate a portfolio. It's a genuinely useful data collection tool when applied correctly. But when a study shows AI trading bots losing a third of their capital in two weeks across 32 separate tests, the limits become hard to ignore. Dave and Nate break down exactly where AI earns its place in the investment process, where it falls short, and how Monument is actually applying it when it comes to managing your portfolio.

Please see important podcast disclosure information at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/disclosures

Episode Timeline/Key Highlights:

0:00 - Disclosures and Quick Premise

0:26 - AMA Agenda and Market Backdrop

1:46 - Earnings Surprise: CapEx Beats Buybacks

4:06 - Hyperscalers and the AI Spend Cycle

8:12 - Momentum Over Predictions in Portfolios

19:54 - Market Seasonality, Iran, and Staying Invested

23:23 - New Fed Chair and Independence

32:14 - Inflation, Oil, and Rate Decision Uncertainty

36:46 - AI Use Cases and Hallucination Risk

46:22 - Why Trading Bots Often Lose Money

48:06 - Send Questions, Subscribe, and Closing

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Because money without meaning never feels like wealth. https://monumentwealthmanagement.com/between-sips-podcast/

About "Off the Wall":

Markets are noisy. Your time is limited. Off The Wall cuts through the clutter. Hosts David B. Armstrong, CFA and Nate Tonsager, CFA, CIPM bring you straightforward, candid insights about what's really moving markets and why it matters for successful investors. From economic shifts to portfolio positioning, we break down the complexities so you can invest with intention and stay grounded when headlines and life feels chaotic.

Learn more about our hosts on our website at https://monumentwealthmanagement.com