S2E11 NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray on retention, managers, and the first 90 days

A new restaurant hire costs you money until roughly day 32. For a manager, it’s 72. If they walk before that, you didn’t just lose a person, you lost the investment. In Part 2 of our Hiring & Staffing series, Dr. Chad Moutray, Chief Economist at the National Restaurant Association, breaks down the numbers behind restaurant employee retention - when a new hire becomes “net positive,” why the first 90 days decide everything, and how one weak manager can pull a whole team out the door.

We get into the 31.8-day math for hourly staff, the 72.2-day math for managers, and why restaurant manager retention is the highest-leverage bet an operator on a tight budget can make.

What you'll learn in this episode:

• What “net positive” really means, and the day a hire starts paying off
• The 31.8 vs 72.2-day gap between hourly staff and managers
• Why the first 30 to 90 days is the highest-turnover window
• The leadership traits that drive restaurant employee retention
• Where to invest first when the budget is tight (hint: onboarding)
• A scavenger-hunt onboarding idea one operator actually uses

 
Next episode: we close the series on how technology is reshaping restaurant hiring and training, without replacing the human touch that makes hospitality work.
 
Resource Links
HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/
State of the Restaurant Industry 2026. https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/

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About Our Guest
Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/
Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge
National Restaurant Association, https://www.restaurant.org/

Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports.

Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA.

Chapters

(00:00) Teaser

(00:30) Show Intro

(02:41) Welcome Back, Dr Chad Moutray!

(03:47) What Net Positive Means

(05:28) The 32 and 72 Day Math

(07:00) Managers Make or Break Teams

(08:41) Surviving the First 90 Days

(10:14) Leadership Traits That Retain

(12:33) Where to Invest First

(13:26) Onboarding Ideas and Scavenger Hunt

(15:01) Show Close

About your Hosts
Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights:

Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail, a Top 25 Thought Leader in AGI and Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AIand Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in Digital Transformation and Transformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformationand the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft.

Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! 

Music

Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.