The Hook: AI inspires both promise and fear. It brings the promise of transformational technology that could boost productivity, alongside fears of industry disruption and fast-moving job losses.

The Spillovers: These debates are already moving markets. The risk is not a broad AI bubble, but an OpenAI bubble specifically, raising the question of whether U.S. capital markets can keep financing heavy investment before revenues fully materialize. Even if valuations hold, the real economic effects on jobs, productivity, and global competitiveness are just beginning to unfold, with young workers and slower-moving economies the most exposed. The window for smart AI governance is narrowing, and policy decisions made now could either stabilize expectations or amplify future market shocks.

The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy. 

Mentioned on the Episode: 

Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence

Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research

Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes