The Spillover

By Council on Foreign Relations

How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economic

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FAQs about The Spillover:

How many episodes does The Spillover have?

The podcast currently has 14 episodes available.

The Spillover episodes:

April 28, 2026K-Shaped Everything + Affordability Crisis + Trump vs. Mamdani Populism
This episode unpacks the concept of a K-shaped economy, examines how AI, war, and climate shocks may be widening inequality within and between countries, and explains why the divide is so hard to measure. It also explores competing responses to the affordability crisis—from Trump’s to Mamdani’s—and asks if a more centrist path could offer better solutions.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:
How a true K-shaped economy features a widening divergence in which some groups accelerate upward while others fall behind.
Why measuring the K-shaped economy is complicated, with major disagreements over data and methodology.
How asset ownership, not just wages, helps explain why wealthier households pulled ahead during and after COVID through equities, housing, and cheap credit.
Why inflation, war-driven energy and food shocks, and different household spending patterns can deepen economic divergence, especially for lower-income households.
How the “mega K” concept applies globally, with geopolitical shocks like the Iran and Ukraine wars worsening divides between rich and poor countries.
How artificial intelligence and climate change could worsen the K phenomenon, disproportionately pressuring workers, poorer countries, and those without capital.
How contrasting policy prescriptions—from Trump’s tariffs and immigration restrictions to Mamdani’s proposed taxes on wealthy second-home owners—reflect competing populist approaches to affordability.
How a revival of “radical centrism,” combining fiscally responsible reforms with practical policies to manage inequality, AI disruption, and long-term economic inclusion might help.

Mentioned on the Episode:

“America’s Affordability Crisis Is (Mostly) a Mirage,” The Economist

“Going Bananas Over Affordability,” Inside Economics

“Compare Wealth Components Across Groups,” The Federal Reserve

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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52min
April 22, 2026Is the Gulf Still the Capital of Capital? + How War Could Hurt America’s Tech Funding
This episode explores how the Gulf region transformed into a global “capital of capital,” and the risk of the Iran conflict disrupting that role. It examines the ripple effects on global markets, U.S. tech and AI investment, and the broader balance of economic power if Gulf capital starts turning inward to focus on defense.

Hosts:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, CFR

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, CFR

We discuss:
How the Gulf transformed itself from a group of oil-dependent economies into a global “capital of capital,” attracting trillions in investment, talent, and tech partnerships.
The scale of Gulf sovereign wealth funds and why it became a critical funding source for global markets, especially U.S. tech and AI.
How a prolonged conflict could force Gulf states to redirect capital inward toward defense and reconstruction.
As Sebastian Mallaby puts it: “If the capital of capital turns inward in any significant way, the global effects could be profound.”
How the Iran war challenges the core assumption that the Gulf could remain insulated from geopolitics.
The Gulf's history of boom-bust cycles and a key difference in the current bust: it's not about price, but the ability to move energy through key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
How disruptions hit different Gulf economies in different ways, from physical damage in energy exporters to confidence shocks in hubs like Dubai.
The potential global spillover of less Gulf capital flowing into U.S. markets, private equity, and AI infrastructure and what that means for everyday outcomes—higher bond yields, slower asset growth, and ripple effects on things like mortgage rates.
The big open question: if the Gulf steps back as a global capital provider, who, if anyone, can replace it?

Mentioned on the Episode:

“How the US grows from PIF’s pioneering investments,” Newswire

“Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds Tracker,” Global SWF

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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44min
April 16, 2026The Hormuz Shock + Why the Fed is “On Hold”
Live from Washington, DC, this episode unpacks how war, AI, financial innovation, and global institutions are reshaping monetary policy, market stability, and the future of the international economic order.

Host:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Guest:

William C. Dudley, Chair, Bretton Woods Committee; Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

We discuss:
Whether monetary policy can still do the heavy lifting in a war-shaken macro environment.
AI, productivity, and the inflation debate.
The future of the Fed as an institution.
The rise of non-bank finance and new financial stability risks.
How global financial institutions and digital finance must adapt to structural change.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, “War Darkens Global Economic Outlook and Reshapes Policy Priorities,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

“Chair Powell’s Press Conference”

The Bretton Woods Committee

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
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30min
April 07, 2026The Oppenheimer of AI + Mailbag Contest Winners
This episode unpacks cohost Sebastian Mallaby’s new book The Infinity Machine and answers audience questions on AI, dollar dominance, the impact of Trump’s foreign policy on midterm elections, and more.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:
Demis Hassabis as a key architect of modern AI and the force behind DeepMind.
AI’s upside in medicine and science, especially through AlphaFold and faster drug discovery.
The tension between building powerful AI quickly and making it safe.
Why the biggest AI winners may be the ones that turn models into useful products.
Why the dollar still dominates, even as China and Europe look for ways to challenge it.
How Trump’s foreign policy decisions on the Middle East and immigration could sway voters in the upcoming midterm elections.
How drones and supply chain choke points are reshaping global conflict.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
43min
March 31, 2026Private Credit's Black Box + Why It's Not 2008 (But Still Risky)
This episode dives into how the opaque growth and structural risks in private credit, combined with global supply shocks and market stress spurred by the Iran war, are creating a uniquely fragile and unpredictable economic landscape.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

We discuss:
The rapid rise of private credit, its lack of transparency, and why recent bankruptcies are raising red flags.
How $10 billion in redemption requests were submitted to major private credit funds in the first quarter of 2026—including major funds Apollo, Ares, and Blackstone.
Why this moment isn’t a repeat of 2008, but still presents real risks due to government debt levels and the lack of safety nets for private credit.
As Rebecca Patterson, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “No one has any idea what’s going to happen—and that’s exactly the challenge right now.”
Current structural risks in private credit, including liquidity mismatches, redemption limits (“gates”), and growing exposure to retail investors.
Why financial markets are behaving unusually, with rising bond yields and weakening traditional safe-haven assets.
How central banks are stuck between fighting inflation and supporting growth, creating a far more complex policy environment than past crises.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
39min
March 25, 2026U.S.-China AI Race Escalates + Chip Bans Aren’t Working + A Lesson From Nuclear Proliferation
This episode unpacks the evolving U.S.-China AI rivalry, the limits of technological export controls, and what’s really at stake as both countries race to shape the future of intelligence.

Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!

Host:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Chris McGuire, Senior Fellow for China and Emerging Technologies, CFR

We discuss:
How U.S. export controls on chips are slowing China’s AI progress, but not stopping it, as loopholes, smuggling and cloud access weaken enforcement.
Why China’s progress is stronger than expected, with competing models only months behind the U.S.
As Chris McGuire, CFR senior fellow, puts it: “Whoever has the better AI is going to have the offense-defense advantage in the cyber realm.”
Why compute and advanced chips are the real bottleneck.
Why the “AI intelligence explosion” is overstated, with real-world deployment slowed by infrastructure, regulation, and human constraints.
The tension between containing China and working with it on global AI safety and governance.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

Chris McGuire, “The New AI Chip Export Policy to China: Strategically Incoherent and Unenforceable,” CFR.org

Chris McGuire, “Trump’s Reversal on AI Chips is a Historic Blunder,” The Washington Post

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
59min
March 18, 2026 Iran War Spirals + Oil Shocks Keep Coming + China’s Advantage
As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran escalates, global markets are absorbing the shocks: oil prices are swinging, inflation expectations are rising, and safe-haven assumptions are being tested. China, by contrast, is looking relatively resilient, buoyed by strategic energy reserves, diversified supply chains, and policy flexibility. This episode examines how the conflict is driving inflation, complicating monetary policy, and handing China a geoeconomic edge.

Submit Your Question For a Chance to Win a Copy of Sebastian Mallaby’s Book The Infinity Machine!

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode:

Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence, Penguin Random House

Coco Feng, “China Issues New Safety Rules for OpenClaw. Here Are the Dos and Don’ts” South China Morning Post

Hany Abdel-Latif and Adina Popescu, “Spillovers From Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi, “Farmer Sentiment Drops Sharply at the Start of 2026 as Economic Concerns Increase,” Purdue University/CME Group

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
55min
March 17, 2026 Introducing The Spillover
How do critical international developments shape economic and financial markets worldwide? Each week, The Spillover examines the ripple effects of global events across policy, geopolitics, economics, technology, and finance. This podcast helps you better understand what’s happening, and why it matters to businesses, the markets, and the world.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
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2min
March 11, 2026 Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations” Turns 250 + Free Markets Face Off Against Industrial Policy
On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, this episode revisits a book that laid the foundations of modern economics and then considers the tensions between free markets and industrial policy today. It highlights the ways in which specialization and global trade remain powerful drivers of prosperity, reflecting Smith’s insight that self-interest can benefit society when shaped by competition and institutions, while noting the ongoing relevance of his warnings about moral judgment, the rule of law, and resistance to cronyism.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode:

“Adam Smith is Misinterpreted and His Influence Overstated,” Economist

Gita Gopinath, “Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar,” International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Caitlin Oprysko, “Trump’s Return Supercharges Lobbying Revenues,” Politico

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
50min
March 04, 2026 Iran War Ignites Oil-Shock Stagflation Fears + Who Really Controls the Energy Market?
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran are disrupting energy markets. Iran’s production capacity has been hit, the Strait of Hormuz has essentially been closed, and Iran’s energy-producing neighbors have been dragged into the conflict. This episode looks at the spillovers from the resulting energy price shock and explores how structural shifts, including a surge in U.S. oil production, China’s emergence as a dominant buyer, and the growth of renewables have reshaped oil’s geopolitical and economic role.

Hosts:

Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research, J.P. Morgan

Mentioned on the Episode:

“Outlook for Energy Demand,” International Energy Agency (IEA)

Ignacio Presno and Andrea Prestipino, “Oil Price Shocks and Inflation in a DSGE Model of the Global Economy,” Federal Reserve

John Kehoe, “Iran War Oil Inflation is a Nightmare for RBA,” Financial Review

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The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
...more
44min

FAQs about The Spillover:

How many episodes does The Spillover have?

The podcast currently has 14 episodes available.