Year over year numbers are officially red. As we discussed in previous episodes, the price drop we see on the board has already happened, as prices spiked last April/May and then fell later in the fall. Since then prices have been generally stable on a macro level. The price trend of the market is basically flat. While some price softening is possible, we're not seeing a dramatic downward trend or expecting a dramatic crash. The latest CPI report shows inflation is slowing, which we hope will keep mortgage interest rates from increasing and potentially even help them decrease.

It's been an up and down 12 months in Nashville real estate. Prices are about where they were 12 months ago, but we've experienced a massive spike and then a similar drop since then. Over the next couple months, our YOY numbers will continue to look more and more grim as they are compared to the record breaking prices of last spring into last summer. It doesn't mean we are currently in a free fall though. We expect we've experienced the majority of the price settling, and our best guess is that over the next 12 months prices will remain relatively flat with the possibility of small increases or decreases. If mortgage rates fall back into the 5s, that will likely increase buyer demand in a relatively low inventory market. This added buyer competition could raise home prices again, though likely not as dramatically as we saw last year.

Stats and Info from February 2023 in the Nashville Real Estate Market.

The stats from January indicate the most Buyer favorable environment we have seen in years. The median price in Davidson County saw its first meaning dip in recent memory. There has been some price fluctuation, but it's been within a predictable range and in line with typical seasonal trends. The January Median Price drop is more significant. Days on market are way up in all counties, and Sale to List Price is down. Summary: If you want a deal, now is the time to buy. We haven't seen a market so favorable to buyers is years, and we believe there is a limited window of time to take advantage of this. Other economic factors suggest that the Market could reignite this summer. Among other things, we may see Mortgage rates dip back into the 4s, and if that happens, we expect an increase in buyer demand that jerks the  system back into a Seller favorable environment, leading to the return of multiple offer situation, paying over list price, and potentially waiving contingencies. It may feel tempting to wait until the lower rate, but now is the time when buyers have leverage. That leverage can be used to negotiate the seller paying for you to have a lower rate. And, if rates do drop dramatically, some lenders are offering a reduced rate refinance, so you could buy now at a lower sale price, and refinance later to get a lower rate as well. If you would like to talk through what would make sense if your situation, or know someone who would benefit from some guidance, please let us know.

One stat in December tells the story. Fewer homes came on the market in Davidson County in December than in any single month over the last 15 years. The month of December typically has the fewer homes listed than other months of the year, but December 2022 was beyond the seasonally expected decrease. This lack of new inventory is the basic reason prices continue to be stable and are not in free fall. More homes sold in December than came on the market, so the market did not replace the inventory that it lost in closed sales. The tight inventory and overall lack of supply is keeping prices stable, even though we are seeing some conditions that are more favorable to buyers than in the past several years. Interest rates seem to be on a general downward trajectory as the inflation reports show signs of improvement. 

Closings continue to decrease rapidly compared to 2021, but Inventory and prices have not experienced the same dramatic shift. Prices and inventory have both maintained their stability. Mortgage rates have been in a gradual decline, hitting a 3 month low on 12/15/22, and buyer sentiment about the market improved for the first time in several months. We're expecting 2023 to maintain the same trend: fewer closings compared to previous years, but prices holding steady with appreciation % in the single digits.

We're often asked by those considering selling their home, "Is it better to wait until spring to list my home?" There seems to be an assumption that spring is prime time for selling, and worth waiting for, even if other individual factors would make selling in winter a better choice, or at least more convenient. In this episode, Alex answers this question and shares his experience from 15 years of selling homes about selling in different seasons in Nashville. If you're considering selling, and would like help determining when the best time would be for your situation, please give us a call, text, email, or message! We're happy to help.

Transactions in October were down 36% vs October of 2021. The market has slowed significantly and yet, prices remain steady. The supply and demand balance has not shifted much and inventory remains relatively tight as the number of new listings coming on the market has also decreased. Mortgage rates are expected to continue to increase as the Fed raised its rates again and more increases are anticipated in the future. In this episode, Alex shares an overview of the numbers and gives some perspective on how he is advising buyers and sellers in the current market. 

Status quo. This month is more about what didn't happen than what did. Really, not much has changed since last month. But also, not much has changed since last month. Prices aren't falling, inventory isn't really increasing, even as rates increase.

Online valuation tools can be really interesting, and sometimes helpful, as long as you understand what they are are what they are not.