The Assessment

By IISS

The Assessment podcast examines the geopolitical questions that matter most. Each episode opens with an AI-generated probability forecast, which a panel of leading experts then interrogate

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FAQs about The Assessment:

How many episodes does The Assessment have?

The podcast currently has 4 episodes available.

The Assessment episodes:

July 30, 2026 Hormuz: choking the Strait
In the third episode of The Assessment, Charlie Edwards, Emile Hokayem and Elliot Hentov probe an AI forecast suggesting that it is unlikely that major carriers will announce a full resumption of services through the Strait of Hormuz before the end of the year.

They explore Iran's 17 August fee deadline, the insurance and mine-clearance bottlenecks and what a semi-permanent Cape detour would mean for global trade.
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39min
July 16, 2026 NATO and the five percent
In episode two of The Assessment, our experts revisit the Hague summit pledge of 5% of GDP on defence by 2035 one year on and ask whether it's already fiscally out of reach for key NATO members.

Host Charlie Edwards is joined by Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for Defence Economics at the IISS, and Howard Mustoe, Editor of The Rearmament. They interrogate an AI generated forecast that assesses it is highly likely that, following Spain’s lead, at least one major European member will also publicly seek an exemption, and what that would mean for NATO's unity and capability.
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33min
July 01, 2026 Russia’s fiscal reckoning
In the inaugural episode of The Assessment, host Charlie Edwards holds discussions with Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, and Timothy Ash, BlueBay Senior Sovereign Strategist for Emerging Markets, to explore whether Russia could face a formal fiscal crisis within the next two years. Using an AI-generated forecast they explore the country’s worsening fiscal pressures, oil-price vulnerability, sanctions and the implications for the war in Ukraine.
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35min
June 29, 2026 The Assessment
Most analysis tells you what just happened. The Assessment podcast asks what comes next.

Hosted by Charlie Edwards, each episode takes a geopolitical question and opens with a forecast generated by an AI-powered platform. That forecast is then put to leading experts who examine its assumptions, identify its limits, and bring regional and subject-matter expertise to bear on the question the models alone cannot resolve. The topics span great-power competition, economic statecraft and the structural forces reshaping international security.

The Assessment podcast show is hosted by Charlie Edwards, Senior Fellow for Strategy & National Security; Head of Analytics, Six Analytic.

The podcast is produced by the IISS Crowd Forecasting, Collective Intelligence and Strategic Risks programme and supported by Acacia.

For more information, visit https://www.iiss.org/
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1min

FAQs about The Assessment:

How many episodes does The Assessment have?

The podcast currently has 4 episodes available.