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Mass extinction means three out of every four species you are familiar with would disappear off the face of the Earth, plausibly in time for your grand kids to see it happen, if not before.
You may have heard that biologists now agree that’s exactly where we’re heading. They’re calling it the Sixth Mass Extinction, since it would be only the sixth time in half a billion years — the entire time complex life has been on the planet — that so many species go extinct so fast. And you’ve probably heard that it’s us, Homo sapiens, who are causing it, by all the ways we are changing the planet.
But, with all the gloomy predictions being thrown about, you may not know that the Sixth Mass Extinction is not a done deal.
Yes, it’s true that about a third of species we’ve evaluated are threatened with extinction, and that we’ve killed about half of all our wildlife in the past forty years. But it’s also true that so far we’ve only lost less than one percent of the species that have ridden the planet with us for the last twelve thousand years. That doesn’t mean species aren’t in trouble — more than 20,000 of them are — but it does mean that most of what we want to save is still out there to be saved.
Biologists have been quite successful at nursing some species back to health. But the task of saving the thousands that are are now in dire straits requires more than case-by-case efforts. It requires dealing with the most important underlying drivers of extinction:
human-caused climate change that exceeds the pace and magnitude of change most species have seen in their evolutionary history;
growing enough food to feed seven billion people now and three billion more by mid-century without converting tropical forests to farms;
and our trend of entirely killing off species to make a short-term profit, rather than banking them for perpetual wealth.