The Beltway & Beyond

The 2022 midterms are around the corner, and there may not be a more consequential election than this one. From inflation to a possible recession, tax policy, gun control, abortion law, immigration reform, and more, American voters have a plethora of issues to consider in November. The Biden administration’s politics, policies, and polling will shape the national atmosphere, as midterms are generally viewed as a referendum on the president. All 435 House seats are up for election, and a shift of only five seats would transfer control of the chamber to Republicans. In the Senate, a total of 35 seats are up for election, with a net change of one seat in either direction altering the balance.

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Towner French ponder different case scenarios for the midterms, including one of the House flipping to Republican control, and how the shift in the balance of power and the resulting legislative gridlock could pose serious challenges to Biden’s agenda. They also discuss the potential impact of a divided government on the 2024 presidential elections.

The 2022 midterm elections will be incredibly consequential. While it’s conventional wisdom that the House will flip to Republican control, 35 U.S. Senate seats and 36 governorships are also up for grabs.

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Patrick Martin, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss Trump's political influence and other potential factors affecting voters in November. And with just over two years to go until the 2024 presidential election, they discuss the issue seemingly on every voter’s mind: who will throw their hats in the ring for what is already shaping up to be one of the most heated political races in American history.

Queen Elizabeth II, Britain’s longest-serving monarch, died on Thursday at 96. Elizabeth’s broadly popular 70-year reign was widely considered a symbol of decorum and a rare bastion of stability and permanence in a world of shifting values and tectonic challenges that followed World War II.

Against a backdrop of the passing of such an unwavering institutionalist, Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the extremism and ongoing threats to democracy in the United States, and consider President Biden’s record and Trump’s legal jeopardy.

Heading into August recess, Congress is on the cusp of delivering President Biden two back-to-back legislative victories: on Wednesday, after more than a year of wrangling and frustration, Senate Democratic leaders and Joe Manchin announced a reconciliation agreement for a sweeping tax-and-spend plan known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The breakthrough bill includes $433 billion in new federal spending, including $369 billion in energy and climate change investments, and is designed to generate an estimated $739 billion in revenue and reduce federal deficits by $300 billion over 10 years. On Thursday, the House of Representatives voted to pass the CHIPS and Science Act, a $280 billion funding package that will boost the U.S. semiconductor industry and cut reliance on chip products from foreign sources.

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin breakdown the two pieces of legislation and discuss what they mean for Biden’s Build Back Better agenda and an administration that had appeared to be running out of steam ahead of the critical midterm elections in November.

Looking ahead at the critical midterm elections, perhaps no issue is likely to motivate Americans more at the polls than the state of their own finances. So just like it was in 1992, is it “the economy, stupid” again in 2022 and, if so, which economy? The one reflecting soaring gas, food and housing prices and historically high inflation, or the one indicating a tremendous labor market, sustained consumer spending, and continued strong business investment? Meanwhile, in a recent poll, only 13 percent of voters said the country is on the right track, prompting some in the media to note that “everything is broken.”

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin discuss the economic crosswinds and the fact both Democrats and Republicans are pouncing on the economy’s diverging paths to support their policymaking pursuits ahead of the midterms. And they ponder whether the system is indeed fundamentally broken or if it’s still strong enough that it can be repaired.

Midway through the 2022 primary season, as the challenges facing the nation mount, there is growing speculation among both Democrats and Republicans that neither Biden nor Trump will be on the ballot in 2024. Meanwhile, the House Committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, during its prime-time televised hearings, continues to present evidence of a conspiracy to overturn a free and fair democratic election.

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Towner French, and Kaitlyn Martin ponder whether Biden and Trump will run in 2024, discuss the impact, if any, the January 6 Committee hearings are having on the presidential race, and break down the most recent attempts to get the reconciliation bill across the finish line.

June's primary calendar came to a close on June 28 with five states – including Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Utah – holding key contests.

In Illinois, all six statewide offices were up for election, including an open race for secretary of state after a long-time incumbent announced his retirement and a competitive Republican primary for the opportunity to challenge Governor Pritzker. Additionally, redistricting of state House, state Senate and U.S. congressional maps led to several retirements and competitive primaries. Meanwhile, voters in the Empire State picked their candidates for governor come November, potentially setting the stage for the first female elected governor in the state's history, and cast their ballots in other statewide races - for lieutenant governor, state attorney general and state comptroller. Primary races for the state Assembly and judicial delegates were also on the ballot. Due to redistricting litigation, primaries for Congress and the state Senate were pushed to Aug. 23.

Public Strategies’ Chicago-based Matt Glavin and Pat Carey are joined by their New York City-based colleagues Rose Christ and Jamie Ansorge to break down the key races and discuss the potential national implications of the primaries in Illinois and New York.

On Friday, in a 6-3 decision by a majority of conservative justices, the high court overturned the landmark 1973 precedent in Roe v. Wade, eliminating the nearly 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion. And on the heels of a Supreme Court decision earlier in the week overturning a century-old New York concealed-carry gun law, on Saturday President Biden signed the nation’s most consequential gun reform bill in decades into law.

Cozen Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, and Towner French break down the events that took place during one of the most consequential weeks in Washington and discuss how they may impact the midterm elections in November.

On Wednesday, the Democratic-controlled House passed a broad set of gun-control measures, largely along party lines, making it a nonstarter in the evenly split Senate. The bill, called the Protecting Our Kids Act and intended to reduce gun violence, would raise the age for purchasing semiautomatic rifles and shotguns to 21 from 18. On Thursday, after nearly a year of investigation and more than 1,000 interviews, the House Jan. 6, 2021 committee held its first prime-time public hearing on the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and the events leading up to it. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer inflation hit 8.6% in May - its highest level in more than four decades, as surging energy and food costs pushed prices higher, with little indication of when the upward trend could ease.

Public Strategies’ Howard Schweitzer, Mark Alderman, Patrick Martin, and Towner French discuss the proposed legislation and key takeaways from the hearing, and ponder how the burden of inflation on the Biden Administration, along with the President’s falling approval ratings and Americans’ pessimism about the economy and the nation’s political system, may spell trouble for Democrats in the midterm elections later this fall.

The 2022 midterm elections are set to be historic, and Tuesday was the most dramatic night of the primary election season to date. Voters in five states, including Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon, cast ballots for Senate, governor and House. Some of the highest-profile battles were fought in Pennsylvania, where the night’s marquee contest — the GOP Senate primary - has yet to be decided.

Members of Public Strategies’ Pennsylvania team – including Jim Davis, Joe Hill, and Kevin Kerr – join Howard Schweitzer and Mark Alderman to discuss the key takeaways from the primary election in the Commonwealth, which in many ways encapsulates America's choice in the 2022 midterms.