The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo: Treasuries, Yields, and Fixed Income for Beginners

The federal funds rate has been pinned at 3.63 percent since May, despite inflation cooling and the economy slowing. Lucas and Luna examine why the Fed is holding steady, using the latest data on the 10-year yield at 4.47 percent, the 2-year at 4.07 percent, and the spread between them at 38 basis points. They discuss the Fed's dual mandate, the role of the interest on reserve balances rate at 3.65 percent, and how traders at Kalshi are betting on a more united Fed board under new chair Kevin Warsh. This episode explains the mechanics of the fed funds rate and what a prolonged pause means for bond markets and the broader economy.

#FederalFundsRate #FedPause #InterestOnReserves #KevinWarsh #Kalshi #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #10YearYield #2YearYield #FedPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MarketAnalysis #RateLiftOff

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Episode 57 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna examine a creeping problem in the Treasury market: dwindling depth in the order book even as yields drift lower. Using the latest data from June 17, 2026 — with the 10-year at 4.47 percent and the 30-year holding near 4.97 — they explain why liquidity metrics from bid-ask spreads to dealer inventories all point the same way. Lucas breaks down how post-crisis regulations, balance sheet costs, and the Fed's shrinking footprint have quietly hollowed out the market's plumbing. Luna asks whether ETF growth — funds like TLT and IEF are up on the week — actually masks the problem rather than solves it. A focused look at the structural fragility behind the calm. This is the bond market conversation beginner and intermediate listeners need to hear.

#BondMarket #TreasuryYields #MarketLiquidity #FixedIncome #FederalReserve #TLT #IEF #SHY #LQD #HYG #ETF #Finance #Economics #Investing #WallStreet #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has stalled just below 5% despite persistent inflation fears. They explore the role of pension funds and insurance companies as natural buyers, the impact of Fed rate expectations, and what a flattening long-end curve signals about the economy. With the 30-year at 4.97% and the 10-year at 4.48%, they debate whether this ceiling holds or breaks. A must-listen for fixed-income investors trying to read the bond market's message about growth and inflation.

#30YearTreasury #YieldCeiling #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TreasuryYields #PensionFunds #InsuranceCompanies #FedRatePause #YieldCurve #LongBonds #TLT #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondInvesting

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Episode 55 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo dives into the hidden liquidity crisis gripping Treasury markets as of June 2026. Lucas and Luna anchor the discussion on the 5-year note yield at 4.19%, with the 10-year at 4.47% and the 30-year near 4.97%. They explore how regulatory changes, specifically the CFTC's recent approval of perpetual futures ('perps'), are reshaping dealer balance sheets and market depth. The hosts explain why even modest moves in yields now trigger outsized price swings, what the 10-year/2-year spread of 0.40 tells us about liquidity conditions, and how the new 'perps' market in the US might drain liquidity from traditional Treasuries. A concrete example: the IEF ETF's 0.5% weekly gain despite flat economic data. Listeners learn why the bond market's plumbing matters more than Fed rate moves right now. No ads, listener-supported: buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo.

#BondMarket #TreasuryLiquidity #10YearYield #5YearNote #30YearYield #YieldCurve #CFTC #PerpetualFutures #MarketDepth #FixedIncome #IEF #TLT #BondVolatility #LiquidityCrisis #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #WallStreet

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Episode 54 of The Bond Market Podcast. Lucas and Luna explore a seeming paradox: as inflation fears cool in June 2026, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are seeing strong demand. The hosts explain the mechanics of TIPS, including their principal adjustment and break-even inflation rates. They reference current data—the 10-year yield at 4.47%, the TIPS ETF (TIP) up 0.3% in a week, and breakeven rates falling to 2.1%. They discuss two key drivers: real yield hunting (TIPS offer a 2.1% real yield) and the Federal Reserve's policy path (rate cuts would boost the appeal of TIPS' inflation protection). They also touch on how institutional investors, including pension funds, use TIPS for liability matching. The episode ends with a forward-looking question about whether TIPS demand will persist if recession fears mount. A quick donation segment for the ad-free podcast is included early on.

#TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #Inflation #BondMarket #RealYield #FederalReserve #BreakevenInflation #TIP #ETFs #FixedIncome #PortfolioStrategy #PensionFunds #LiabilityDrivenInvesting #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing

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Lucas and Luna dive into a quiet but telling signal from the corporate bond market: investment-grade spreads have tightened to levels that historically precede an economic deceleration. Using live data from June 2026 — with the 10-year Treasury at 4.45 percent and the 30-year near 4.95 percent — they unpack why high-grade bonds are behaving like a safety trade, and why high-yield spreads haven't followed. The hosts reference recent flow data from LQD and HYG, discuss the role of foreign demand, and explain why this divergence matters for anyone watching the business cycle. No jargon, just the signal.

#CorporateBonds #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #BondMarket #YieldSpreads #TLT #LQD #HYG #FixedIncome #CreditMarkets #EconomicSlowdown #TreasuryYields #FedPolicy #Spreads #Liquidity #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics

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Lucas and Luna dig into why the 30-year Treasury yield keeps bumping against 5 percent without breaking decisively higher. With the long bond yield at 4.97 percent as of this week, they explore what's holding it back—and whether that ceiling matters for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. Lucas points to a specific factor: the Fed's rate pause and the market's shifting expectations for long-term inflation. Luna brings in the TIPS market as a tell. Along the way, they discuss the 10-year's recent drop from 4.55 to 4.45 percent, the steepening yield curve, and what real yields are saying about growth. A focused, number-driven conversation for anyone trying to understand why the long end of the Treasury market is behaving the way it is.

#30YearTreasury #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #LongBond #YieldCurve #FedPause #TIPS #RealYields #MortgageRates #PensionFunds #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategy #InflationExpectations #LucasAndLuna

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With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year yield slipping to 4.45 percent, bond market volatility has hit its lowest level in months. Lucas and Luna explore what a rate pause signals for Treasury yields, the 2-10 spread, and corporate bond ETFs like LQD and HYG. They break down why low volatility might not last, and how traders are positioning for the next Fed move. Plus, a look at why the 5-year note is becoming the market's new anchor. This episode drills into the mechanics of a rate-pause environment and what it means for fixed-income investors.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #LowVolatility #2YearYield #10YearYield #YieldCurve #CorporateBonds #LQD #HYG #FixedIncome #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Macro

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Episode 50 of The Bond Market Podcast explores the hidden engine of fixed-income markets: liquidity. Lucas and Luna break down why liquidity matters more than yield in today's environment, using the recent 30-year auction and the gap between on-the-run and off-the-run Treasuries as real-world examples. They explain how the 10-year yield's drop from 4.55 to 4.45 percent is partly a liquidity story, and why institutional traders watch the bid-ask spread on the 5-year note as a canary in the coal mine. If you've ever wondered why some bonds trade at a premium beyond their coupon, or why ETF prices can diverge from net asset value, this episode gives you the framework. No jargon, no fluff — just the mechanics that move trillions daily.

#BondMarket #Treasuries #Liquidity #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #10YearYield #30YearBond #BidAskSpread #OnTheRun #OffTheRun #MarketMicrostructure #TreasuryAuction #BondETF #InstitutionalTrading #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Episode50

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In episode 49 of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a counterintuitive trend in the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market. As of mid-June 2026, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has fallen to 2.1 percent, down from 2.4 percent in April. Yet inflows into TIPS ETFs like TIP have surged, with over $2 billion added in the past month. Lucas explains how falling breakevens actually make TIPS more attractive as a relative-value play, especially when nominal yields are compressing. Luna challenges him on whether retail investors are misreading the signal — buying inflation protection when inflation fears are receding. The hosts break down the math of TIPS pricing, the role of real yields, and why institutional demand is shifting. They also touch on the 30-year yield hovering near 4.97 percent, and what the steepening curve means for TIPS duration. A must-listen for fixed-income investors navigating the late-cycle bond market.

#TIPS #Inflation #TreasuryBonds #RealYield #BreakevenRate #BondMarket #FixedIncome #TIP #Investing #Economics #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #InflationProtection #ETFs #PortfolioStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast

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