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In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve — where the 10-year yield has risen to 4.47% while the 2-year sits at 4.05%, widening the spread to 42 basis points. They explain what drives a steepening curve, how it signals shifting expectations for Fed policy and economic growth, and what bond investors should watch next. Along the way, they discuss the role of the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, the impact on mortgage rates, and why this steepening might be different from past cycles. A practical guide for anyone trying to read the bond market's signals.
#TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #BondMarket #CurveSteepening #FedPolicy #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #FixedIncome #Economics #Investing #InterestRates #MortgageRates #BondInvestors #PortfolioStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast
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Episode 27 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo cuts to the foundation: the fed funds rate. Lucas and Luna walk through how a 3.62% effective rate shapes everything from 2-year notes to 30-year bonds, using the latest data from June 2, 2026. They explain why short-term yields track the fed funds rate almost mechanically, how the yield curve's current 42-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year reflects rate cut expectations, and what happens when the Fed stops or starts moving. No jargon, no fluff — just a clear mental model for anyone who wants to understand what moves bond prices. Plus, a look at how Greg Abel's recent Berkshire dealmaking fits into the rate environment. If you've ever wondered why Treasury yields seem to dance to the Fed's tune, this episode connects the dots.
#FedFundsRate #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #ShortTermRates #LongTermRates #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #SpreadTrading #GregAbel #BerkshireHathaway #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast
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In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and what their real yields signal about the current economic environment. With the 10-year nominal yield flat at 4.45 percent and the 30-year yield nudging 5 percent, the hosts examine the breakeven inflation rate and how TIPS are pricing in future CPI. Lucas walks through the mechanics of inflation-adjusted principal, the difference between nominal and real yields, and why the TIPS ETF (TIP) has been outperforming nominal Treasuries lately. Luna presses on whether TIPS still make sense if inflation continues to moderate. The conversation closes with a look at the inflation risk premium and what the 5-year TIPS yield implies for Fed policy. A natural, investor-focused primer for anyone wondering how to preserve purchasing power in a bond portfolio.
#TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #RealYield #NominalYield #BreakevenInflationRate #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Investing #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #BondETF #TIP #Economics #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast
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Lucas and Luna explain the Fed's new approach to quantitative tightening—letting bonds roll off passively without active sales. They discuss what this means for the yield curve, with the 2-year at 3.99% and the 10-year at 4.45%, and why the 30-year yield remains stubbornly near 5%. Plus, a look at how the Fed's balance sheet strategy is keeping short-term rates steady.
#Fed #QuantitativeTightening #QT #YieldCurve #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #MonetaryPolicy #CentralBank #30YearYield #InvertedCurve #PassiveQT #BalanceSheet #Economics #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast #Fexingo
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The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but in May 2026 the 10-year minus 2-year spread turned positive again — now at 47 basis points. Lucas and Luna unpack what this normalization means for bond investors, mortgage rates, and recession signals. They walk through the historical track record of curve steepening, the role of the 3-month yield still above the 10-year, and how to position a portfolio when the curve is no longer inverted but not yet steep. Specific numbers from the latest Treasury data ground the conversation, including the 10-year at 4.45 percent and the 2-year at 3.99 percent. A practical episode for anyone wondering if the inverted yield curve is still a recession warning — or if the all-clear has sounded.
#YieldCurve #10YearYield #2YearYield #Treasuries #BondMarket #CurveNormalization #RecessionSignal #FixedIncome #PortfolioStrategy #SteepeningCurve #Inversion #FedPolicy #InterestRates #InvestmentStrategy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast
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The yield curve has been inverted for over 700 days – a record stretch that historically preceded every recession. Lucas and Luna break down what the 2-year versus 10-year spread of 47 basis points signals today, using current data from May 28, 2026. They explore why this inversion hasn't triggered a downturn yet, what the 3-month to 10-year spread adds to the picture, and how the curve's eventual normalization could reshape bond strategy. With the 30-year yield at 4.99% and the 2-year at 3.99%, the conversation drills into what happens when the curve finally steepens – and why investors shouldn't wait for the all-clear signal. No hype, just the numbers and the history that matter.
#YieldCurve #InvertedYieldCurve #Treasuries #BondMarket #RecessionSignal #2Year10YearSpread #FedPolicy #EconomicIndicator #FixedIncome #BondInvesting #CurveNormalization #MacroEconomics #Finance #InvestmentStrategy #MarketAnalysis #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast
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Episode 22 of The Bond Market Podcast zeroes in on the 7-year Treasury note — a maturity that sits between the Fed-sensitive short end and the macro-driven long bond. Lucas and Luna explain why the 7-year has become a liquidity barometer for institutional investors, especially pension funds and foreign central banks. They break down the current 4.15% yield, how it compares to the 5-year and 10-year, and what the flattening slope between them signals about rate expectations. Using the latest data from May 28, 2026, they discuss the 7-year auction cycle, the role of primary dealers, and why this maturity often leads the curve during policy uncertainty. A must for understanding the less-trafficked middle of the yield curve.
#7YearTreasury #TreasuryNotes #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Liquidity #InstitutionalInvestors #PensionFunds #CentralBanks #FedPolicy #RateHikes #MichelleBowman #Economics #Finance #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast
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The 20-year Treasury bond is the overlooked maturity on the curve, but right now it offers a yield premium over both the 10-year and 30-year bonds. Lucas and Luna examine why the 20-year yield sits at 4.65 percent, how it became a liquidity oddity after its reintroduction in 2020, and what the gap between the 20-year and 30-year yields signals about the market's view on long-term inflation and fiscal risk. They also look at how the 20-year bond can fit into a laddered portfolio strategy, and why recent trading volumes suggest growing interest from both retail and institutional investors.
#Treasury #20YearBond #YieldCurve #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TreasuryBonds #YieldPremium #LadderStrategy #InflationRisk #Liquidity #PortfolioStrategy #Finance #Investing #FiscalPolicy #LongTermBonds
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The ten-year Treasury yield has slipped to 4.45 percent, down from 4.48 percent last week. Lucas and Luna look at why this matters for bond investors — and what it says about the market's expectation for rate cuts. They talk about the 30-year yield hovering near 5 percent, the short end of the curve still above 3.5 percent, and how the yield curve is flattening again. They also touch on what a Fed governor's recent warning means for the path ahead. If you've been watching yields move and wondering what the signal is, this episode gives you a practical lens.
#TreasuryYields #10YearYield #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #YieldCurve #RateCuts #30YearYield #3MonthYield #TLT #IEF #Investing #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #MarketAnalysis #May2026
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Lucas and Luna explore a less-discussed corner of the Treasury market: the 3-year note. With the 3-year yield sitting at 3.94% and the 10-year at 4.48%, the spread between them has narrowed sharply. They explain why this mid-curve maturity is a better indicator of the Fed's expected rate path than the 2-year or 5-year, and how a flattening 3-10 spread signals market skepticism about future rate cuts. The hosts break down what the 3-year's sensitivity to Fed policy changes means for bond investors right now, using recent auction demand and real yield data. A focused look at why this maturity matters more than you think.
#3YearNote #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FedRatePath #YieldCurve #MidCurveMaturities #TreasuryAuctions #FixedIncome #Investing #RateCuts #BondInvesting #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #May2026 #YieldSpread #PortfolioStrategy
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