The Brief

Discern This delves into America’s changing role in the world with veteran journalist and political commentator David Andelman, whose career includes stints as New York Times bureau chief in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. How does the United States self-perception mesh with the views of it around the world and is it still “the shining city on the hill”? David Andelman brings into focus the shifting status of the US, as viewed from abroad, a topic he covers as a CNN columnist and in his own substack Andelman Unleashed.. He highlights a fascinating finding from a recent international survey which placed Canada and its constitution as the leading example to emulate, according to respondents in countries considering their own constitutional revisions.

Drawing on his perspective gained from reporting from 86 countries over his career, David Andelman sketches the major fault lines in world affairs. He identifies the possibility of fighting a two front war- in Ukraine and over Taiwan- as the greatest threat facing the United States. Andelman explains why the Baltic states and Poland have had a more realistic and accurate appraisal of Russian intentions and how the France and Germany fell victim to wishful thinking in their policy with Moscow. He highlights the attritional nature of the war in Ukraine and posits the negative feedback loop of Russian casualties could have on the Kremlin. He adds that some of the overlooked disruptions caused by the Russian invasion, include overtures between former Soviet republics in central Asia and the United States.

Andelman endorses Henry Kissinger’s dictum that strong domestic support is required of the conduct of a successful foreign policy- that international events are too often refracted through the prism of national politics. He chides the US media for inconsistently explaining the relevance and impact of international events to its domestic audience. For him one of the weaknesses of the American political system is that Americans are not being educated about the linkage between America’s global position and America’s prosperity.

David Andelman is a journalist, author and political commentator. His career includes stints as New York Times bureau chief in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. David was also a Paris based correspondent for CBS News. He is currently an opinion columnist for CNN on international affairs and writes regularly for his own substack: Andelman Unleashed.

What are the greatest threats facing the United States and how well has the current administration been managing them? Colonel Larry Wilkerson, who was Chief of Staff to US Secretary of State Colin Powell, identifies nuclear weapons and climate change as existential risks and sounds the alarm over military and civilian leaders in both America and Russia growing more comfortable with the idea of using battlefield nuclear weapons. On the war in Ukraine, Colonel Wilkerson castigates the “warmongering media” in the West and asserts there is no way Russia is going lose the war.

Turning to Asia, Colonel Wilkerson warns that the US would probably be unable to win a war with China over Taiwan and would likely suffer over 100,000 casualties in the first 10 weeks of fighting. He highlights the numerical naval superiority the PRC has built up over the last two decades and raises the prospect of America losing two aircraft carriers with their 10,000 personnel within the opening days of hostilities. He paints a harrowing picture of survivors afloat amid flames and diesel in the South China Sea. In an even more stark warning, Colonel Wilkinson details China’s expanding nuclear arsenal and more aggressive force posture, which he says increases the risk that military conflict with China would lead to a nuclear exchange.

How do US intelligence agencies view and prioritize the panoply of threats facing the country? Suzanne Kelly shares insights from her extensive knowledge and contacts built up over her career as an intelligence correspondent at CNN and as the founder and CEO of the Cipher Brief- a leading publication focused on national security. In conversation with her former CNN colleague Lonzo Cook, Suzanne dissects the long term, multipronged challenges presented by China, ranging from industrial espionage and squabbles over access to advanced computer chips to a burgeoning rivalry in space-based platforms. Suzanne highlights America is developing its offensive and defensive cyber capabilities and explains how US intelligence agencies responded to high profile hacks such as Solar Winds. We also discuss what Hollywood get right and wrong about the working of US intelligence agencies in films like Zero Dark Thirty.

While the US intelligence community has long resembled an old boys club to the outside world, Suzanne explains that women have long held important positions behind the scenes and are increasingly in senior leadership positions. Noting that women within intelligence agencies are now playing a more public role we go on to discuss how a diversity of viewpoints leads to better intelligence analysis and decision making.

Suzanne Kelly is the founder, CEO and publisher of The Cipher Brief, a national security focused media organization. She's also a former CNN intelligence correspondent and executive producer.