Only 6 weeks into the new administration and many small and mid-size business leaders are giving up on planning.  With Musk at DOGE sending out cost cutting measures, while other real department heads appear to be doing nothing – or doing something equally outrageous – it’s easy to say “there’s no reason to plan. Who knows what will happen next?”

That would be wrong. This podcast explains how the big trends have not changed. On the surface it may appear different, but if you know your customers’ needs you know to continue pursuing them.  What’s happening around you is not “disruption, “ but in fact chaos.  And during chaos opportunities abound. Surely you can see through the chaos to identify customers’ needs and how the cuts being made only create more opportunities to fill those needs. 

Don’t be paralyzed by the loudness and outrageousness.  Don’t let poorly defined terms like “swamp” confuse you.  Instead recognize that chaos has happened before, and you can manage your way through it with good planning.  Lead like a winner during this period and you’ll be a winner as things reach a “new normal.”

Thinking Points:

• Did you do scenario planning back in November, after the election, to prepare for what’s happening now?
• Are you recognizing how the big trends have not changed?  Just how you can react to them in some markets.
• Chaos creates opportunity - by definition.  Do you see it that way, or are you choosing to be paralyzed?
• Do you realize great leaders create. They don’t tear apart. Are you ready to help your customers grow during their feeling of fear?

Starbucks succeeded for years by building out a fantastic Value Delivery System supporting its Value Proposition.  This podcast explains how leadership allowed a focus on the VDS to drift the company away from its VP, and recently hire a new CEO who’s doing enormous harm to long term value by implementing short-term VDS improvements.

This podcast also overviews what SMB leaders need to know about DeepSeek and the evolution of AI. AI is getting better and cheaper, and like the internet did previously, is greatly improving business capabilities at lower cost. What’s been called “breakthroughs” are significant advancements that demonstrate all businesses will have no choice about using AI if they are to survive, thus it is imperative SMBs start using the technology now.  This podcast provides jumping off points to get started.

Thinking Points:

• Do you know your Value Proposition? Are your “improvements” enhancing your VP to customers, or detracting from your VP by focusing on how to lower cost?
• Are you encouraging employees to seek out applications of AI to improve operations and enhance your Value Proposition?
• Are you testing applications for both generative and reasoning AI?
• Does your future planning include significant application of AI, or are you expecting AI to happen magically?

Netflix just blew out expectations for new subscribers, and the stock – one again – is at all time highs.  To understand why Netflix is so successful is to understand that the company keeps investing in entirely new markets and solutions, which drives new revenue streams.  Rather than focusing on how to do more of the same better, faster, cheaper Netflix keeps using trends to find new growth opportunities.

This podcast explains how attempts to defend & extend your business ultimately fail – like Sears.  And like the bad decisions McDonald’s made to grow the burger business rather than investing in Chipotles and Boston Market.  And how the CNN CEO killed CNN+ when the market was going digital.  Yet we all over-invest in our old business, and under-invest in doing the new thing.  Because we’re too comfortable thinking we can get away with it, when in fact we can’t.

Thinking Points:

• How much of your time do you spend defending & extending your current business versus looking for new opportunities?
• How many of your best people are working on defending your current business vs identifying new opportunities?
• How willing are you to invest in something new for higher growth, even as returns on your existing business are declining?
• Are you watching trends and figuring out how the world will create opportunites, or are you fixated on solving problems?

The episode of the Business Trendsetter Podcast Innovators Series features Manny Teran interviewing Frank Vidal, a development manager and founder of the Tucson Thrive virtual mastermind group. Frank shares insights into his community-building efforts through Tucson Thrive, which fosters open, vulnerable discussions and authentic relationships among members. The conversation explores mentorship gaps for entrepreneurs, the impact of social media and AI on networking, the importance of financial literacy, and the need for creating meaningful personal connections. Frank highlights the value of storytelling, vulnerability, and building community as cornerstones of personal and professional growth.

The administration is changing in 2025, and it’s sure to impact businesses. But you can plan for change. Looking backward, all the way to Kodak and Xerox and Amazon we can see that it is possible to plan your way to success, while avoiding pitfalls, decline and failure.  It’s important to plan for trends, rather than just looking at the past, realizing that big trends transcend politics offering the chance to grow regardless administrations.

This podcast overviews the big trends that will impact all businesses, and offers insights on how to plan for success.  Demographics have nothing to do with administrations, and by understanding those trends you can become a leader in your business – both by retargeting your hiring and better understanding customer needs.  And understanding that promotion is now completely different, yet still accessible if you put your money in the right place. Meanwhile, understanding your Value Proposition can keep you from backsliding into oblivion as you do more of the same, while those who overcome rigidity to their Value Delivery System move forward with new offerings meeting emerging needs.

Thinking Points:

• Do you let your plans be jerked around by headlines and politician statements, or do you have a handle on how long-term trends will impact your customers needs and your suppliers?
• Are you implementing processes that worked 10, 20, or more years ago failing to recognize that you need new processes to reach customers and effectively source?
• When you meet a really tough problem do you become Don Quixote, fighting to continue despite the trends, or do you adapt to the inevitable?
• Are you tracking the results of your existing practices and looking for “a better way?”

Molly Gravatt, the inspiring founder of Radiant Dev, shares her remarkable journey from a career in volleyball  to trailblazer in technology staffing. Her story is a testament to the power of perseverance, people, and purpose. With over a decade of experience at Allegis Group, Molly honed her expertise in building connections and understanding what drives businesses forward: their people.

A life-changing moment during her divorce, coupled with unwavering support from her partner, gave Molly the courage to leap into entrepreneurship. Today, Radiant Dev is redefining the staffing industry by crafting high-performing engineering teams and fostering meaningful relationships with both W2 and 1099 workers.

Molly’s approach stands out in an industry often marked by transactional interactions—she champions a personal, thoughtful touch that prioritizes people over process. She also speaks passionately about the transformative role of AI in recruitment, the shifting dynamics of the workforce, and the urgent need to eliminate bias in hiring practices.

Molly’s story is a powerful reminder that embracing change, valuing people, and leading with authenticity can spark extraordinary success.

Spark Partners is excited to introduce the Innovators Series, a special mini-series within the Business Trendsetter Podcast. In this new series, Manny Teran will sit down with entrepreneurs, business leaders, and bold innovators to uncover the stories behind their journeys—exploring their triumphs, challenges, and the lessons they’ve learned along the way.

Meanwhile, the core Business Trendsetter Podcast will continue to bring you weekly episodes featuring Adam Hartung and Manny Teran, offering valuable insights into trends, current events, and case studies that reveal what it truly takes to achieve long-term success. Stay tuned and join the conversation with Spark Partners!

After almost a decade, and investing $10B, GM has simply quit the Robotaxi effort.  It joins a long list of big-time investors who wrote off more billions – Uber, Lyft, Ford and even Apple. Why were they so wrong?  This podcast explains how the lack of a Value Proposition meant these efforts were unlikely to succeed, even with “all the money in the world.”  Lacking a clear reason for their existence, this was money chasing technology for technology’s sake – versus customer needs.

We can learn from this lesson not only how to be smart about investing in new markets, but also how to get more focused with our offerings in order to improve our Value Proposition and chances of success – as has happened with the long-haul driverless truck segment.  And, we can learn how tracking investments by the giants create opportunities for SMBs to leverage their investments for gains in smaller businesses.  When we can’t afford to invest like giants we can afford to adapt new developments for the good of our customers and our business.

Thinking Points:

• Are you sure you know your Value Proposition – and the poorly met needs of customers?  Do you know what they need and don’t have a solution for today?
• Do you look for segments where needs are particularly acute, and offer much higher returns for implementing new solutions that add value?
• Are you focused on understanding were companies with big money are investing their money, so you can leverage their investments into solutions for your customers?
• Are you willing to be an early adopter of new technologies so you can lead your customers to better solutions, rather than cautiously waiting and thus letting competitors get the edge?

We often think of risk and uncertainty as the same thing. We say “I don’t  know what to do,” concluding doing something (often anything) seems risky.  But that is wrong.  Just because you’re uncertain what to do doesn’t mean it’s risky.  And you can be certain about what you do while taking actions (often doing the status quo) that incur a lot of risk.  It’s important to know the difference so you can manage both uncertainty and risk successfully.

This podcast explains how doing nothing in the face of uncertainty is usually the worst thing you can do.  Instead we need to recognize that uncertainty doesn’t mean risk, and work to reduce the uncertainty so you can properly assess risk and make good decisions.  Just because you don’t know what to do doesn’t mean you don’t need to take action.  Success requires we understand how to recognize uncertainty, and manage the uncertainty.  Then accumulate information in order to properly assess the risk.  This podcast explains how you can do that, especially as we face a very challenging and uncertain change in administrations in 2025.

Thinking Points:

• Do you often stop, and wait, before making a business decision just because you’re uncertain what to do?
• Have you ever recognized that if you had taken a decision sooner you would have created a better outcome?
• Do you often see the future as risky?  Do you avoid what you perceive as risky?
• Do you try to eliminate uncertainty by avoiding change – even in the face of unavoidable change?

The election results are in, and it’s assured that America – which means the globe – is going to be dealing with change.  Are you prepared?  Hoping these changes won’t affect your business is foolhardy, and luck is not a strategy!

Long-term trends are not affected by this election.  The upside-down demographic pyramid isn’t going to change, nor is climate change and awareness thereof, nor is the rapid movement to automated processes. The new administration will likely react to all 3 differently than the previous administration, but the trends are still there and will impact  your business.  Scenario planning can be well applied to these short-term impacts in order to prepare for threats, and seize opportunities!  This podcast explains how to use scenario planning tools to understand likely impacts, and how to prepare.

SMB leaders are busy folks. They have a business to run, with daily struggles to meet customer needs and manage costs.  It’s easy to skip scenario planning for the future in lieu of managing today.  But we KNOW that the short-term future will be loaded with change. This isn’t a maybe, it’s a certainty.  Never has scenario planning been more important to prepare for the short-term disruptions, while positioning for long-term success.  Listen to how you can identify changes and use scenario planning to act today so you are prepared tomorrow.

Luck is not a strategy!!  Scenario planning can create a viable strategy for future success.  Now is the time.

Thinking points:

• Mass deportations will worsen the labor shortage problem.
• Reduction in law enforcement (FBI, ATF, etc) will increase cybercrime, fraud, white collar crime, drug sales and gun availability.
• Protecting your customers, employees, suppliers and community will increasingly rely on you doing more, relying on government entities less.
• Reduced reliance on vaccines and immunizations, plus lowered budgets for drug and food testing, means that responsibility for health and welfare of customers, employees and family members will be up to business leaders.
• Firings of military leaders and elimination of DEI programs will further damage the ability to recruit and retain soldiers, leading to fewer troops available for fighting offshore threats.  Increasing the risk to supply chains and more foreign conflicts.
• Simultaneously a near-term focus of using the military for domestic issues like rounding up deportees will reduce resources for offshore threats, protecting supply chains and taking advantage of global opportunities.