The Call by the Global Intelligence Desk

“Each side has essentially put trade embargoes on the other,” warns Wall Street Journal Chief China Correspondent Lingling Wei. With Xi Jinping doubling down on strategic industries and bloc-building abroad, Wei argues today’s rift goes beyond tariffs—it’s about ideology and long-term power.

She joins Jay Sapsford on The Call to break down the risks of escalation, China’s limited pain tolerance, and why the neither side should assume it holds all the leverage.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

Global markets have entered a period of intense volatility after the U.S. announced a new round of tariffs last week, putting a floor of 10% on most goods entering the country and targeting specific nations for double digit duties. Some economists now say the chances of a recession – both at home and abroad – are growing. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics,  joins us to assess these rapidly moving developments. We’ll explore the possible macroeconomic scenarios, and the political economy shaping this moment in the days and weeks ahead. 

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

A blanket tariff of 10% on foreign imports was announced, with some exemptions, by the Trump administration, designed to respond to trade imbalances. Those follow a recent announcement of 25% tariffs on autos, effective this month, and earlier trade restrictions including levies on steel and aluminum. The changes mark a major inflection point in U.S. trade policy, with significant consequences, including higher costs for manufacturers and shippers, supply chain disruptions, and possible retaliation from both allies and adversaries.

How significant are these levies? Are tariffs as radical as they appear to be in the context of history? And, in the months and years ahead, how might markets, stakeholders, and the economy react based on past precedent? Douglas A. Irwin, a leading historian of U.S. trade policy, joins us to unpack these pressing questions and understand the potential impacts of this moment, and how it fits into the longer arc of American economic statecraft.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

The USTR is proposing steep docking fees on Chinese-built ships to counter China’s rapid rise in shipbuilding; a sector the U.S. says benefits from unfair trade practices. 

The proposed fees—up to $1.5 million per port call—aim to curb reliance on Chinese shipbuilding and reignite domestic capacity. But opponents say the policy could backfire, harming U.S. competitiveness across agriculture, energy, and logistics while doing little to revitalize shipyards. Given the U.S. reliance on Chinese vessels, some believe the bipartisan initiative could trigger significant economic disruption, including higher shipping costs, inflationary pressures, and reduced competitiveness of U.S. exports.  

Our guest this week is Lars Jensen, the CEO of the consultancy Vespucci Maritime, who brings his expertise and decades of container shipping industry experience to The Call to shed light on what is likely the most important trade restriction that no one is talking about today.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

AI is everywhere. It is the most mentioned term in corporate earnings reports, a driving force behind market shifts, and, most importantly, the technology most shaping the future of warfare and global security. The U.S. now faces challenges to its AI dominance as rivals – notably China – scramble to develop advanced AI-driven military capabilities.  

Paul Scharre, a former Pentagon official and the author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, sees both risks and opportunities in the unfolding global AI arms race. We asked him these important questions: How secure is America’s AI advantage? And what steps must the U.S. take to maintain its strategic edge in this critical domain? 

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

NATO faces a moment of reckoning. Doubts about the U.S. commitment to the alliance are growing at a time when Russia’s attack on Ukraine challenges Europe from the East. Long the backbone of European security, NATO members must now confront hard questions: What happens if the U.S. pulls back entirely? Is Europe ready to stand on its own?

U.S. Navy Admiral James Stavridis (Ret.), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, argues Europe is already preparing for a post-NATO era, with significant consequences for both U.S. influence and its defense industry. Across European capitals, plans are being made to dramatically increase defense spending to levels that match the U.S. As Washington shows more sympathy for Moscow, some are proposing expanded European ties with Beijing.  Admiral Stavridis provides a candid assessment of the geopolitical stakes.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

China’s economy is slowing. Amid weak borrowing, slack investment, deflationary pressures and uneven growth, the evidence points to China slipping into a "balance sheet recession"—a phenomenon our guest, Richard Koo, first diagnosed during Japan’s lost decades of the 90s, and then identified in the financial crises of both Europe and the U.S.
 
 The former New York Fed official, who has consulted governments and testified in the U.S. congress, spent decades analyzing how economies recover—or fail to recover—from balance sheet recessions. Koo explores what China must do to avoid stagnation, and lay out the stakes for global markets, trade, and investment. 

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

Ukraine is at a pivotal moment. As Great Powers seek to resolve the conflict, and vie for influence, questions are surfacing over what level of commitment—military, economic, and strategic—will be required to secure Ukraine’s future. Those questions have broader implications for both Europe and the global balance of power and ultimately will help shape trade and investment across strategic domains.  

Our guest, General David Petraeus (Ret.), brings unparalleled insight into the evolving geopolitical landscape. Between 2001 and 2021, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were a primary economic and military focus of the United States. At the time, General Petraeus was one of the most senior U.S. military leaders involved in those wars and he shares his unique insights into the risks – and opportunities – that will emerge should the Ukraine war come to a negotiated settlement, and Kyiv begins rebuilding.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

The global landscape is undergoing profound shifts. The era of a U.S.-led, rules-based order is fading. In its place, we see a world driven by raw power, strategic rivalry, and shifting alliances—where military strength, economic leverage, and geopolitical maneuvering define who gets a seat at the table.  
 
This episode's guest, SAIS’s Hal Brands, sees the Trump administration as likely to attempt a grand reset with Moscow, hoping to break Russia from its growing alignment with China. But will this gamble pay off, or will it only push Moscow and Beijing closer together? And what does this new world—in which success is determined by power—mean for businesses, global trade, and economic security? 

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk  

The dynamics of the war in Ukraine, after three years of stalemate, are showing signs of shifting. The Trump administration is pursuing direct negotiations with Russia. European leaders are meeting amongst themselves and clashing over whether to send in troops. Ukraine says it will not recognize any negotiations that do not include Kyiv. All this comes after the conflict reshaped assumptions over global power and triggered the largest surge in defense spending since the Cold War. Global military budgets soared to $2.46 trillion last year alone, a 7.4% increase, as nations rushed to fortify their defenses. The stakes for global security have never been higher.

The Global Intelligence Desk is pleased to welcome Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), one of the leading voices in transatlantic security, as we unpack the key takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, the latest shifts in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and what these developments mean for global power dynamics and the future of international security.

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The Call is a series of live video conversations featuring expert guests from the U.S. Chamber's Global Intelligence Desk. Live access to The Call is a benefit to the Chamber’s members; however, we are pleased to provide recordings of the calls for wider listening thereafter.

Learn more about the Global Intelligence Desk: https://globalintelligencedesk.com/
Join the conversation on LinkedIn:   / global-intelligence-desk