In this episode of the Cantilever Podcast, Danny Perez is joined by partners Brendan and Jon to break down a rapidly shifting macro environment — and what it means for markets, Bitcoin, and venture capital.
Over the past month, traditional market signals have started to break. Equities are down, but bonds and gold — typically considered safe havens — are also selling off. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has held relatively steady. So what's really going on?
The team explores the idea of a "wartime macro" environment, where geopolitical conflict, rising energy prices, and constrained liquidity are reshaping how markets behave — and boxing in a Federal Reserve already navigating competing pressures on inflation and financial stability.
From there, the conversation shifts to venture capital. With AI driving massive efficiency gains and layoffs across major companies, the economics of building startups may be changing. If companies need fewer people and less capital to operate, what happens to the traditional venture model — and who's actually positioned for what comes next?
Topics covered:
- Why bonds and gold aren't acting like safe havens
- Bitcoin's resilience in a risk-off environment
- How AI is reshaping capital allocation and hiring
- Why mid-stage VC may be structurally shrinking
- How Bitcoin-native startups have already been operating under these constraints for years.
- Read the 2026 Bitcoin Ecosystem report by Epoch Ventures. Brendan and Jon co-authored the Bitcoin Venture Capital section, which you can find on pages 171 to 184.
The episode closes with a deeper question:
Are we still operating under the old playbook—or entering something entirely different?
This show is for informational purposes only. Nothing presented here constitutes legal and/or financial advice.