The Cattle Market Guys Podcast

September cattle placements and marketings were the lowest for the month since USDA began tracking in 1996, and the squeeze is showing up in feeder calf prices. With 500-549 pound steers averaging $407.87 per hundredweight and carrying a healthy premium over futures, producers with weaned calves hold the leverage.

Brock and Jim break down the October Cattle on Feed report, which showed 11.372 million head on feed October 1, slightly below last year. They explain why low placements point to tight supply rather than weak demand, and why heavy fall calf movement doesn't contradict that story. They also cover the cash fat cattle breakout after seven weeks in a narrow range, with October live cattle settling at $227.55, and the warning sign of negative packer margins.

The conversation then turns to feed and weather: a shrinking U.S. drought area, corn harvest progress, winter wheat emergence, and Ukrainian grain export disruptions that show cheap feed may not last. Jim looks back at the drought of 1996 and how different today's setup is. Brock closes with what to watch: model forecasts that ease lighter feeder prices over four weeks, packer bid behavior, and feed costs.

USDA will add a regional negotiated cash cattle report on Monday, October 26, pooling fed cattle trade from Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Kansas. Cash trade has thinned and CME futures have hit multi-month highs before pulling back, so the added price transparency arrives at a pivotal moment for cattle producers.

In this Week in Review for October 23, 2026, Brock and Jim break down the latest feeder cattle market. Medium and Large No. 1 steers in the 500-549 lb class averaged $404.06/cwt, up $7.89 from a month ago. The 600-649 lb class averaged $363.58. The forecast favors lighter calves holding value while heavier weights soften.

The hosts also cover drought and pasture conditions. U.S. drought area fell 5.7% on the week, but pasture and range ratings were just 22% good to excellent as of October 11. Corn harvest reached 52% complete and winter wheat planting hit 69%. They also look at uneven feeder and stocker supplies heading into the fall run. Jim shares lessons from the 1996 drought and the start of mandatory price reporting in 2001, along with practical marketing advice for cow-calf producers, stocker operators and buyers.

New World screwworm is back in West Texas cattle. USDA confirmed a case in Pecos County on October 10th, just days after a detection in a dog in Brewster County. With feeder supplies running heavy and pastures still stressed, producers face tough sell-or-hold decisions.

In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $404.06/cwt and 600-649 pound steers are at $363.58/cwt. The model forecast is split, with lightweights firming and heavier calves softening into November. Jim shares his memories of the late-1980s Libya screwworm outbreak and the sterile fly program that ended it. They also discuss why the sterile-fly supply from Mexico matters so much today.

They also cover feeder and stocker marketings running 19.3% above the three-year average. Drought coverage is shrinking, but only 22% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, while corn conditions are improving. The episode closes with tightening global beef supplies, the October WASDE report, live cattle futures at a ten-week high, and questions about consumer demand after the agriculture secretary's comments on beef prices.

exican feeder cattle imports are barely trickling across the border, with just 400 head crossing at Santa Teresa, New Mexico, a port that once handled roughly 40 percent of the flow. A new screwworm detection in Brewster County, Texas, makes a quick reopening even less likely and keeps feeder supplies tight.

Brock and Jim break down this week's feeder cattle market, where 500-549 pound steers are at $402.17 per hundredweight, up $1.20 on the week and $19.52 from a month ago. Heavier 600-649 pound steers slipped $2.69 to $358.94. The model points to a small near-term pullback, then firmer prices into November. They also explain why producers shouldn't count on import relief when pricing calves and replacement stockers.

The episode also covers volatile CME cattle futures, which rallied to a three-month high after USDA raised its 2026 corn harvest outlook, then dropped on profit-taking before moving higher again. Brock and Jim discuss why setting hedging targets and risk triggers ahead of time beats reacting to headlines.

Finally, they review USDA's October WASDE, which lowers 2027 beef production, raises beef imports, and leaves cattle prices unchanged. They also look at why carcass quality and marbling matter as imports grow, and how finish weight decisions affect returns.

Feeder cattle prices climbed again this week, with 500-549 lb steers reaching $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago, even as just 17.8% of U.S. cattle purchases now trade on the negotiated cash market. With feeder supplies historically tight and pasture conditions deteriorating, Brock and Jim break down what's driving the rally and what producers should watch next.

Brock and Jim review the Friday, October 2 market, including feeder steer prices, price forecasts pointing to a small dip before a push higher, and a choppy week for live and feeder cattle futures. They explain why short-term futures moves rest on a thin cash base and why producers should know exactly how their own cattle are priced.

The hosts also examine the supply picture. The July Cattle report showed the beef cow herd down just 0.7%, feeder and stocker marketings ran more than 28% below the three-year average in mid-September, and August placements and marketings were lower. Falling corn futures and swelling corn stocks are helping feedlot margins, but only 19% of pasture and range is rated good to excellent, and drought areas are still up 12% from a month ago. Jim shares lessons from the drought of '96 and the thin cash markets of '99.

Feeder steer prices are surging on heavy volume, with 500-549 lb steers at $401.79/cwt, up $21.89 from a month ago. Meanwhile, negotiated cash trade has shrunk to just 17.8% of cattle purchases, and feeder supplies are tightening into 2027.

In this Tuesday Market Update for September 29, Brock and Jim break down the latest cattle prices and model forecasts, which show a small pullback next week before a push higher. Six hundred to 649 lb steers are at $362.11, and the heavy trading volume adds weight to the rally.

The deep dives cover futures volatility as tight U.S. inventories collide with packer processing disruptions, and why the shrinking negotiated cash market matters for price discovery and producer bargaining power. They also review the September Cattle on Feed report, where feedlot inventory rose 0.7% to 11.16 million head even as placements and marketings declined, and August marketings hit a series low.

Finally, they examine the Santa Teresa, New Mexico, border crossing reopening, which handles 43% of Mexican cattle imports, and the New World screwworm risk after a detection in Grant County, New Mexico. Jim shares stories from 1999 and 2003 on how market structure and border decisions move prices. Producers get practical takeaways on pricing mechanisms, replacement costs, and risk management.

Cattle markets are caught in a tug-of-war: feeder cattle prices bounced hard week-over-week even as futures whipsawed through a third straight losing session before rallying on surprise placement numbers. Add in the lowest August marketings since 1996 and a screwworm case popping up just two days before a critical border crossing is set to reopen, and producers have a lot of moving pieces to track this week.

In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the latest CME feeder cattle data, with 500-549 weight steers and 600-649 weight steers both showing strong weekly gains but softer month-over-month numbers. They dig into the September WASDE report's lowered cattle price forecasts against rising corn costs, with Jim drawing parallels to the 1996 Corn Belt drought that squeezed feedlot margins for months. The conversation shifts to the latest Cattle on Feed report, where historically low marketings point to a tightening feeder cattle supply heading into 2027, a trend Jim compares to the classic supply-and-demand squeeze he's seen throughout his cattle trading career.

The episode closes with a look at the New World screwworm situation near the New Mexico border, where a new case in Grant County threatens the planned September 24th reopening of the Santa Teresa crossing, which handles 43% of Mexican cattle imports. Jim shares his experience from the 1985 screwworm outbreak in South Texas, offering perspective on how long border disruptions can linger even after containment succeeds. Together, Brock and Jim unpack what all three storylines mean for producers navigating a genuinely volatile cattle market.

In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim break down the market snapshot showing divergence between weight classes, with 500-549 weight steers bouncing 12.12 week-over-week even as they remain down nearly 29 dollars month-over-month. The conversation shifts to the Santa Teresa port reopening set for September 24th, with Jim drawing on his experience from similar border crossing openings in 1993 to explain why short-term price dips from import news rarely derail long-term fundamentals.

The duo also dig into this week's wild cattle futures swings, hitting one-month highs Wednesday before falling on port news Friday, while highlighting Cattle Range's Ten-Day Market-Strength Index showing a constructive 6.68% gain despite daily volatility. They cover the September WASDE report's lowered price forecasts and weak packer demand, plus pork market pressure from hog futures hitting contract lows.

Finally, Brock and Jim examine what might be the week's most bullish signal: feeder and stocker cattle marketings running 30.7% below the three-year average, pointing toward a genuine herd rebuilding phase as producers hold back cattle rather than rushing to sell. With next week's Cattle on Feed report on deck, this episode sets up the key storylines shaping cattle prices heading into the fourth quarter.

Feeder cattle prices just dropped nearly $47 in a month, and futures traders are already pricing in risk from a confirmed screwworm case in southern Texas—the first U.S. horse infection near the border. With USDA slashing its 2026-2027 cattle price outlook while corn costs climb, producers are facing a tangled mix of short-term futures strength and long-term caution.

In this Tuesday Market Update, Brock and Jim break down the latest cash price data on 500-549 and 600-649 weight class steers, both trending lower on average volume, with forecasts pointing toward stabilization after the recent slide. They dig into the September WASDE report's lowered price forecasts and weigh it against Friday's futures rally, drawing a direct parallel to the 1996 corn price spike and the costly lesson of chasing a rally that never came.

The conversation shifts to animal health, covering the confirmed screwworm case in South Texas, the resulting movement restrictions, and Jim's firsthand memories of the 1976 outbreak, plus a new H5N1 study on California dairy farms showing transmission through air, wastewater, and asymptomatic cows. Rounding out the episode, Brock and Jim cover trade policy developments including an Oval Office cattle industry executive order signing, an open letter addressing beef price politicization, reassuring data on Brazilian beef imports, China's new agricultural insurance expansion, and USMEF's trade delegation to Japan supporting U.S. beef exports.

Feeder cattle prices just took a brutal hit — 500-549 lb steers are down nearly $49 per hundredweight in just thirty days, and the 600-649 lb class isn't far behind. Brock and Jim break down whether this correction is the start of something bigger or just a market catching its breath before the next move.

In this Week in Review episode, Brock and Jim dig into three major storylines shaping the cattle market. First, they unpack the tangled trade policy landscape, from new executive orders on beef and cattle to Canada's retaliatory tariffs and Brazil's shifting export mix, weighing whether political noise or market fundamentals will ultimately drive prices. Jim shares a personal flashback to the NAFTA panic of 1993 that adds real perspective to today's tariff headlines. Next, they examine global feed grain and soybean trends, including China's softening hog demand and an unexpected new demand driver: GLP-1 drug users turning to soy-based protein. Finally, the guys tackle animal health and biosecurity, covering the latest screwworm detection numbers, a new pest biosecurity R&D platform planned for San Antonio, and Jim's memories of the original screwworm eradication program from the 1980s.

Whether you're tracking feeder cattle futures, watching trade policy fallout, or keeping an eye on biosecurity threats, this episode delivers the market intelligence producers need heading into the next month.