The Causey Consulting Podcast

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 3/26 - 3/31.
✔️As RTO becomes clearer, we see more Johnny Come Latelys jumping on the bandwagon. 😒
✔️Companies are talking about existential threats and laying off like it's 2008 but hey: labor market is still red hot and people are doin' great! 😣
✔️"Paring back CapEx, paring back hiring."
✔️Attention is an important currency, too. Who are you listening to? As companies are shedding jobs, it seems more people are turning to social media to grift.


Links:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14067

https://www.thestreet.com/breaking-news/look-the-brutal-layoff-email-disney-ceo-bob-iger-sent-employees-today

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/23/1165559810/npr-layoffs-cancels-podcasts-invisibilia-rough-translation

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/nearly-half-of-workers-have-side-gig-6202074/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/investors-pulling-deposits-from-banks-5599604/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnQAUCIk1vw

https://techcrunch.com/2023/03/28/lucid-to-lay-off-1300-employees-in-restructuring/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230315a.htm

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-companies-watching-remote-workers-184015079.html (Vindicated yet again. They even use the term panopticon!)

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

Meanwhile, if you actually talk to candidates who are out on the job market, you'll have more than a few who say, "I applied all over town, and I only got one callback," or "I went in a restaurant with a help wanted sign in the window, and the manager told me, 'Well, actually, we can't afford to hire anybody right now, but we can't take the sign down for optics.'"  It seems like there's a lot more to the story than what we're being told." -"Bonus Episode: Housing Market ➡ Job Market"  published on July 4, 2022

"Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake
In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill" -https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794?mod=mhp

I TOLD YOU SO!

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

"When a boom cycle ends, it can be tough to accept reality. People want the band to play forever. Realtors who tried to convince us that home prices would only go up and we were not in a housing bubble are looking for work outside of the industry. Some of the people in HR trying to hype you up about the job market will find themselves in the same boat as we go further into this mess. You can try to fight The Fed and ignore the broader economy if you want to, but I sure wouldn't recommend it. And on that note, apparently you are supposed to believe that a petition or an angry Slack channel will somehow be enough to stave off RTO forever. Sorry, I don't buy it!"
-"IMO, a petition will not stop what's coming" https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/02/23/imo-a-petition-will-not-stop-whats-coming/  published on February 23, 2023.

"In a leaked message, Amazon's HR chief flatly rejected an internal petition against the new return-to-office policy signed by roughly 30,000 employees"
-https://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-hr-boss-rejects-employee-remote-work-petition-2023-3

NO DUH!

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

Key topics:

✔️ ICYMI news, 3/19 - 3/24.
✔️The whisper in the wind I heard about deposit withdrawals that I reported on in the last broadcast has proven true.
✔️You're supposed to think this is a great time to buy a house. IDK why, but apparently, you're supposed to think so.
✔️What good is a "guarantee" if it's not worth the paper it's printed on?
✔️The system is totally fine and totally sound. 😉 *wink wink*

Links:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/18/blackrock-is-working-on-a-rival-takeover-bid-for-credit-suisse-financial-times-reports.html

https://www.rt.com/business/573141-us-banks-borrowing-crisis/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/18/midsize-us-banks-reportedly-ask-the-fdic-to-insure-all-deposits-for-two-years.html

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/american-elite-planning-escape-starts-120011462.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/nervous-bankers-swarm-recruiters-5194849/

https://fortune.com/2023/03/23/laid-off-workers-calling-out-former-employers-social-media-non-disparagement-clauses-rule-careers-labor-steinhorn-scorah/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xw6zkKvknc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grDjUQzNEms

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/working-remotely-is-it-enough-6204186/

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/accenture-cuts-19000-staff-globally-5587156/

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

"'The Fed is facing a difficult task on Wednesday, but it is likely already past the point of no return,' JPMorgan strategists led by Marko Kolanovic, the bank’s chief global markets strategist, wrote in a note to clients Monday. 'A soft landing now looks unlikely, with the airplane in a tailspin (lack of market confidence) and engines about to turn off (bank lending).'" -https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/already-past-point-no-return-171434984.html

But remember how many times you were told:

• Inflation is transitory
• The job market is blazing hot
• Labor shortage 🦜
• We can't be in a recession because look at the job market
• Soft landing
• Slowcession
• Rolling recession
• Bad news is good news

If you haven't already prepared a job loss survival plan, it's probably too late. I hate to say that, but IMO, if you wait to be "officially" told that the economy is in a hot mess, you're waiting way too late.

Links:

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/already-past-point-no-return-171434984.html

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3908515-the-fed-circumvented-the-debt-ceiling-to-borrow-billions-for-failed-banks/

https://www.finder.com/americans-borrow-friends-and-family-household-debt

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

Siren courtesy of Pixabay. 

"The most valuable asset they have is their job."  -Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Then he goes on to say that the odds of people losing their jobs is not remote.

"What the Federal Reserve does is provide the blood supply for the body of our capitalist economy. And what happened in 2008 is all the veins and the capillaries and the arteries collapsed. So every financial function had failed. It had collapsed and we had to restore them." "It's almost like alchemy! You can create money out of thin air if you're at the central bank." -Richard W. Fisher, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

"Buddy, it's not a question of enough. It's a zero sum game, sport. Somebody wins and somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another. Like magic. That painting cost $60,000 10 years ago. I could sell it today for $600,000. The illusion has become real. And the more real it becomes, the more desperately they want it. Capitalism at its finest." -Gordon Gekko, Wall Street


Key topics:

• Did the system die in 2008? Have we been limping along with duct tape and baling wire all this time? On borrowed time? 
• "Mixed signals about the economy." As I've said before: if you assume someone is lying, the economy is not so difficult to figure out. 
• "The Federal Reserve seems to have our economic fate in its hands." 
• Why would a so-labeled capitalist system need a central bank to pump the blood through it? Makes no sense. Unless you assume it's crony capitalism or socialism in disguise. And pepper in some fascism as well.
• The Scorpion and the Frog. "Are these executives greedy or stupid?" 
• "Banks got bailed out, we got sold out!"
• "But in reality: it played out differently." Rather than hiring and building new facilities, these CEOs enriched themselves and the shareholders. Say it ain't so!
• "We're like a giant bloodsucker." 
•  Unregulated shadow banking. 
•  March 2020 and the D word: depression. 
• "There's no barometer of moral hazard." 
• The Fed points fingers at the state; the state points fingers at The Fed; and we are supposed to forget the incestuous relationship between them. 
• "I'm a good person. I've always paid my bills before."
• "A once-in-a-lifetime financial transition..."

Links:

You can watch the full documentary here:
"Age of Easy Money"  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpMLAQbSYAw

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/benbernanke.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow-banking-system.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moralhazard.asp

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-interest-rate-hikes-unemployment-increase-layoffs-inflation/

Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

At some point, you gotta learn the important lesson that some of the people in the media are cons. They are paid corporate shills who are directed to push a particular narrative. They are controlled opposition designed to do whatever their corporate puppet masters advise them to do. If you listen to them, you are doing so at your own peril. ⚠️

"It has become more and more obvious that there is one political party in America and that is The Business Party." -Bill Hicks

Links:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_PavcYPcmc

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/70141-remember-this-jim-cramer-bear-stearns-is-fine-do-not-take-your-mon

https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/cnbcs-jim-cramer-touted-silicon-valley-bank-stock/

https://fortune.com/2023/03/15/winner-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-bank-of-america-jpmorgan-goldman-sachs-deposits/


Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

"Here’s how the second-biggest bank collapse in U.S. history happened in just 48 hours" -https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-how-it-happened.html

"Things happen slowly until they happen very fast." -Lynette Zang, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3y8yh1HnA5s

"If you wait to be 'officially' told something, in my opinion, you are waiting too late." -Sara Causey, repeatedly, to anyone who'd listen

"Expert warns stock market crash could come in a matter of days" -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwHjl9iGgiQ

Additional Links:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/svb-collapse-could-lead-contagion-221110997.html

https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/svb-ceo-sold-stock-before-collapse-6198490/

https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1633536085308366866

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/nypd-called-to-silicon-valley-bank-branch-as-depositors-attempt-to-pull-cash-report/

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/11131724


Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/

I've been reading Nomi Prins' Other People's Money: The Corporate Mugging of America, which was published in 2004. (My paperback version has an update from 2006.) So the material pre-dates The Great Recession and provides an important remembrance of the insanity that was the late 90s/early 00s.

From page 7 of the paperback:
"Robert Schiller of Yale University and Irrational Exuberance fame spoke after lunch. His cautionary talk, supported by slides depicting graphs of lowered profitability and other financial health indicators, was challenged by the room. A series of grilling questions poking apart his argument followed. Though Schiller delineated clear reasons why the market was overinflated, no one really wanted to listen."

Sound familiar? For some people, you could present all the evidence in the world and they'd still argue to be wrong. To quote Dr. Stuart Woolley, "The turkeys don't even realise that they're voting for their own Christmas."

Links:

https://www.amazon.com/Other-Peoples-Money-Corporate-Mugging-ebook/dp/B0041G6RTW

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Paulson

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1125110/12031473

https://www.epi.org/publication/ceo-pay-in-2021/

https://themortgagereports.com/61853/30-year-mortgage-rates-chart

https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/02/24/gordon-gekko-tried-to-tell-you/

https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/04/old-rich-white-dudes-think-youre-a-bunch-of-whiners/

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/071603.asp


Links where I can be found: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/2023/01/30/updates-housekeeping/

Need more? Email me: https://causeyconsultingllc.com/contact-causey/