Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share The China-Taiwan Crisis Explained: History, Xi Jinping and US Deterrence | The Dialectic
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
The China-Taiwan Crisis Explained: History, Xi Jinping and US Deterrence | The Dialectic
In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their dialectic eastward to examine analyze the sharp escalation in China–Taiwan tensions following the People’s Liberation Army’s large-scale “Justice Mission 2025” exercise. The drills, which encircled Taiwan after a record US arms sale, form part of a broader pattern of air, naval and cyber pressure that has intensified since Xi Jinping consolidated power in 2012. The hosts examine how gray zone tactics and calibrated military displays are steadily shifting the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
The discussion then turns to the deeper political and historical roots of the crisis. They dive deep into the Chinese Civil War of the previous century, the Kuomintang’s retreat to Taiwan in 1949 and Taiwan’s evolution from one-party rule to a vibrant democracy. They also explain the differences between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP is a left-leaning pro-independence party that struggled against the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang in the past. Now, the DPP is the ruling party and political divisions between the two parties still run deep.
The hosts also explore how nationalism, regime legitimacy and the “One China” doctrine remain central pillars of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), especially as economic growth slows and demographic pressures mount. They also speak about how the CCP has become more aggressive over the last few years, making not only Taiwan but also Japan more nervous.
From there, the conversation moves to sovereignty and great power politics. Atul and Glenn make sense of US foreign policy, ranging from the Taiwan Relations Act and strategic ambiguity to recent signals of greater strategic clarity, placing the standoff within the framework of the Thucydides Trap.
Finally, they outline the choices Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and US President Donald Trump face as China’s power peaks. With Taiwan’s domination of high-end semiconductor production and economic prowess, the episode assesses the profound economic and geopolitical consequences of any miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait.
00:00 Justice Mission 2025
10:00 Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
15:00 Salami Slicing
21:00 Nationalists & Communists
32:00 The Democratic Progressive Party
44:00 The Chinese Communist Party
50:00 The Taiwan Strait
55:00 America’s Strategic Posture
1:05:00 China-Taiwan Tensions
1:15:00 What if China Invades Taiwan?
View all episodes
By Fair ObserverIn this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their dialectic eastward to examine analyze the sharp escalation in China–Taiwan tensions following the People’s Liberation Army’s large-scale “Justice Mission 2025” exercise. The drills, which encircled Taiwan after a record US arms sale, form part of a broader pattern of air, naval and cyber pressure that has intensified since Xi Jinping consolidated power in 2012. The hosts examine how gray zone tactics and calibrated military displays are steadily shifting the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
The discussion then turns to the deeper political and historical roots of the crisis. They dive deep into the Chinese Civil War of the previous century, the Kuomintang’s retreat to Taiwan in 1949 and Taiwan’s evolution from one-party rule to a vibrant democracy. They also explain the differences between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP is a left-leaning pro-independence party that struggled against the authoritarian rule of the Kuomintang in the past. Now, the DPP is the ruling party and political divisions between the two parties still run deep.
The hosts also explore how nationalism, regime legitimacy and the “One China” doctrine remain central pillars of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), especially as economic growth slows and demographic pressures mount. They also speak about how the CCP has become more aggressive over the last few years, making not only Taiwan but also Japan more nervous.
From there, the conversation moves to sovereignty and great power politics. Atul and Glenn make sense of US foreign policy, ranging from the Taiwan Relations Act and strategic ambiguity to recent signals of greater strategic clarity, placing the standoff within the framework of the Thucydides Trap.
Finally, they outline the choices Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and US President Donald Trump face as China’s power peaks. With Taiwan’s domination of high-end semiconductor production and economic prowess, the episode assesses the profound economic and geopolitical consequences of any miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait.
00:00 Justice Mission 2025
10:00 Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
15:00 Salami Slicing
21:00 Nationalists & Communists
32:00 The Democratic Progressive Party
44:00 The Chinese Communist Party
50:00 The Taiwan Strait
55:00 America’s Strategic Posture
1:05:00 China-Taiwan Tensions
1:15:00 What if China Invades Taiwan?