In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer, deliver a rigorous analysis of the Indian economy under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their conversation explores how centralization of power, excessive bureaucratization and competitive populism are hollowing out growth, entrepreneurship, private investment, savings, public finances and institutional credibility in India.

The authors begin by defining “Vegetarian Stalinism,” which is a metaphor for a system where anyone opposing the Modi government faces repression, not in the form of being packed off to a Siberian gulag, but oppression through regulators, taxmen and even the police, which leads to years of legal limbo, much like waiting for Godot. Vegetarian Stalinism avoids the violence of the Soviet Union but tortures citizens through Kafkaesque processes that suck up time, money and energy. 

Like the communist Soviet state, the Indian state controls the commanding heights of the economy. Instead of nationalization of all private enterprise, an unholy nexus of babus (Indian term for bureaucrats), big business and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dominates the Indian economy. This rent-seeking and corrupt system favors oligopolies and monopolies that are unchallenged by competition, leading to consumers paying too much for too little.

While Pakistan is a garrison state, a term coined by the scholar Ishtiaq Ahmed, India is a babu state. Babus rule by law in an arbitrary and draconian way. The roots of this bureaucratic oppression lie in the past. India’s British imperial masters ruled through the Indian Civil Service (ICS), elite bureaucrats who came from Oxford and Cambridge, to extract revenue from India, the jewel in the crown. Once India became independent in 1947, the ICS was renamed as the Indian Administrative Service (IAS) and acquired even greater powers under the license-permit-quota raj — a system where you need an insane amount of bureaucratic approvals for any economic activity.

This crazy license-permit-quota raj only receded when the Gulf War and the weakness of the Soviet Union in 1990–91 led to a balance-of-payments crisis and the 1991 liberalization of the Indian economy. Modi has turned the clock back. Like Indira Gandhi, Modi has centralized all power in the BJP and in the country. Hence, he relies on babus to enforce his writ. They have brought in protectionism, often through the backdoor and a compliance raj that terrifies anyone doing business. In India, the IAS occupies the commanding heights of not only the state but also the economy. As during the pre-1991 times, Indians have political freedom but no economic freedom.

To be fair to Modi, he has done a good job on infrastructure, digital payments and delivering micro welfare benefits directly to the people. The provision of women’s bank accounts, electricity, sanitation and cooking fuel has improved the lives of millions. No less than 810 million Indians get five kilograms of foodgrains for free every month.

However, the economy is facing a crisis. India had a massive black economy that many estimate might have been 60% of the GDP. Modi’s shock therapy of demonetization and introduction of a nationwide sales and goods tax in the middle of a financial year destroyed millions of small and medium enterprises. There are hardly any jobs, especially for the youth.

A dumbbell economy that gives subsidies to big business and freebies to the poor is causing great strain on the middle class. Note that subsidies have not led to increased manufacturing. Modi’s policies have led to deindustrialization instead with manufacturing falling from 17% to 13% during his 10+ years in power. Tax terrorism has become the name of the game for Modi’s babu state, where citizens are threatened with imprisonment to make payments and then languish in court for years to seek redressal. The Indian system is not Kafkaesque; it is Kafka.

Arbitrary, extortionate and draconian actions are forcing Indians to vote with their feet and leave the country. An exodus of talent and capital is underway to escape what an astute business executive calls “rupeeization of incomes and dollarization of expenses.”

Three scenarios emerge from this: a 1991-style crisis forces India to reform, India meanders along in mediocrity or the country disintegrates in the case of a major shock. The future of the country depends on the decisions of its policymakers.

00:00 What is Stalinism?

09:00 Modi’s Vegetarian Stalinism

14:30 Infrastructure & Micro Welfare 

18:00 Farce Economic Growth 

26:40 Dance With Socialism

38:00 Bureaucracy & Red Tape

53:00 Modi’s Sanatan Socialism

1:00:00 India’s Political Populism

1:05:00 Modi’s Tax Terrorism

1:13:00 Evils of India’s Past

1:20:00 India’s Future

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and institutions on geopolitical risk, examine France’s deepening crisis and ask whether the Fifth Republic can survive it. The discussion opens with the immediate breakdown: five prime ministers in two years, Sébastien Lecornu’s 26-day stint, resignation and reappointment, a parliament unable to pass a budget for 2026 and a 6% budget deficit that pushed France into the EU’s most worrying fiscal category. Importantly, Moody’s cut France’s outlook to negative as bond markets grow wary.

Atul and Glenn trace the crisis to long running structural patterns. They map the historical arc from King Louis XIV and his finance minister Jean-Baptiste Colbert to Charles de Gaulle and the birth of the Fifth Republic, showing how a tradition of centralised state power pushes France into recurring crises. With the government controlling nearly 60% of the GDP, dirigisme — the French version of a centrally directed economy, which is quite like socialism — struggles to create a modern, dynamic economy. 

In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle, a retired CIA officer who now advises companies, governments and organizations on geopolitical risk, turn their attention to Germany and ask a fundamental question: What has gone wrong with the engine of Europe?

The conversation begins with Nazi Germany’s total defeat in 1945 and the country’s partition into East and West Germany. Under the American security umbrella, West Germany rebuilt itself through an export-led economic model that came to define postwar Europe. The fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification of the two Germanies brought both triumph and strain.

Atul and Glenn explore how Germany’s success story has stalled. The German economy is now struggling, its population is shrinking, its workforce is aging, and its dependence on Chinese markets and Russian energy has become a strategic weakness. German bureaucracy has become infamous, and excessive regulation is inhibiting economic activity. The country’s famed automobile industry is losing ground to Chinese electric vehicles, German innovation capacity has waned and the country is missing in the fast-growing high-tech sectors of the global economy. Meanwhile, rising immigration has caused social division and political polarization. Support for the far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), is surging and it is now beating traditional parties in opinion polls. Clearly, Germany is in crisis.

Atul and Glenn place Germany’s crisis within a wider European story. They consider how demographic decline, economic fatigue and strategic hesitation are eroding Europe’s global influence. Germany is the EU’s economic engine. It is the heart of Europe that looks both west and east. This episode of The Dialectic asks whether Germany can renew itself in an age of global competition or whether its decline mirrors the broader malaise of Europe itself.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA officer and Senior Partner at FOI Glenn Carle explore a provocative question: Can Germany and France make Europe great again?

Today, Europe faces new tests: demographic decline, mass immigration, economic stagnation and political fragmentation. The hosts discuss whether France’s centralizing vision and Germany’s federal model can ever align, and whether the EU can act as a coherent global power in an era shaped by the US, China and Russia.

Combining history, geopolitics and philosophical inquiry, this episode of The Dialectic also examines whether Europe’s forthcoming story is one of yet another revival or irreversible decline.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and Senior FOI Partner Glenn Carle (a reputed retired CIA officer) dissect US President Donald Trump’s dismantling of the federal government and its far-reaching implications. They examine Trump’s removal of key officials, including the governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Lisa Cook, the director of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the commissioner of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). They note that the Trump White House is gutting federal agencies such as the Fed, the CDC, the IRS, the State Department, the CIA, USAID and NASA.

Atul and Glenn warn of a future where liberal democracy erodes into a conservative autocracy. They point out that many immigrants support Trump because of cultural conservatism and disdain for bureaucracy. Listen to this episode to make sense of our volatile, complex, ambiguous and complex (VUCA) world)!

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA officer and FOI Senior Partner Glenn Carle talk about the history of the Iranian empire, the emergence of modern Islamic Iran under the Safavids, the instability that followed, the British domination of this proud nation and the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Atul and Glenn examine the ideological, religious and geopolitical imperatives driving Iran. They discuss the 1953 coup and the role of MI6 and CIA, as well as the emergence of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979. They discuss the Iran-Iraq War that followed, the Shia-Sunni divide and more. They end the podcast examining current developments such as the Israel-Iran military clashes and the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as drawing up scenarios of what comes next.

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA Officer Glenn Carle dive into the latest terrorist attack in Kashmir and the resulting escalation between India and Pakistan. They explore the deep historical roots of the conflict, the strategic calculus of both nations, and the dangerous interplay between religion, nationalism, and domestic politics. With terrorism once again destabilizing the region, they ask: Can cooler heads prevail, or is a larger conflict looming?

In this episode of The Dialectic, Fair Observer’s Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief Atul Singh and retired CIA Officer Glenn Carle dive into why US President Donald Trump is targeting Harvard and what that reveals about deeper ideological rifts in America. From culture wars to claims of antisemitism, the rise of woke culture to the dangerous logic behind the “unitary executive,” the conversation tackles the forces threatening American democracy. Harvard becomes a stand-in for the liberal elite, globalization and the institutions conservatives believe have left them behind. With humor, historical insight and first-hand experience, the hosts explore how today’s political battles echo those of revolutionary France — and what’s at stake if the elite temples of thought fall.

President Donald Trump’s return to power has alarmed many countries around the world. It is important to remember that Trump the individual represents two deep and persistent trends in American politics: isolationism and nativism.

Remember that after World War I, the US jettisoned the League of Nations, which was President Woodrow Wilson’s idea. Even after World War II, influential figures championed Fortress America. Senator Joseph McCarthy was one of them. Trump’s America First policies draw upon this tradition. 

Over the last decade, the Republican Party has increasingly moved toward isolationism, breaking from its post-World War II tradition. Under Trump, the party has abandoned its interventionist stance, embracing skepticism toward international alliances and multilateral agreements.

Trump’s approach in implementing this isolationist foreign policy complicates matters further. He often appears reactive and impulsive, driven by personal grievances rather than strategic interests. Trump often allows personal relationships with leaders to overshadow the presence or absence of shared strategic goals. This unpredictability undermines trust and weakens alliances.

Isolationist policies also limit the US’s ability to address global challenges like climate change, terrorism and economic instability. An abdication from global leadership invites other nations like China to step up to the plate, threatening US security and interests.

To craft a more effective foreign policy in the future, the US must find a balance between its desire for national autonomy and the realities of an interconnected world. This necessitates a shift from adversarial and binary thinking to the difficult but ultimately more beneficial approach of multilateralism.

[Peter Choi edited this podcast and wrote the first draft of this piece.]

Atul Singh and Glen Carle delve into American history, from the Mayflower's arrival in 1620 to the Declaration of Independence in 1776. Carle, with ancestral ties to the Mayflower, discusses the interactions between English colonists and Native Americans, the ideological roots of the American Revolution, and the rise of anti-authoritarian sentiments. The episode highlights key events like King Philip's War and the Boston Massacre, illustrating the complexities of colonial loyalties and economic motivations. Carle challenges simplistic historical narratives, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of America's path to independence.