The Common Sense Bull

Where is the smart money heading in tech, and what could reshape the AI trade in 2027?

On Episode 11 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie sits down with Felix Wang, Partner, Managing Director, and Head of Global Tech at Hedgeye, to discuss where he sees opportunity and why he believes investors should pay attention to the credit markets.

Felix shares his research process, his outlook on Marvell and SiTime, and the financing concerns behind his bearish view on CoreWeave. They also explore how rising borrowing costs could affect AI infrastructure spending and why strong AI demand doesn’t necessarily translate into strong investment returns.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Finding investment ideas through industry contacts and supply chain research

• AI infrastructure trends in networking, optics, power, and cooling

• Felix’s investment cases for Marvell and SiTime

• CoreWeave’s financing needs and potential dilution risks

• Credit market warning signs and their implications for tech

• A potential Anthropic IPO and its role in funding the AI ecosystem

• Felix’s 2027 outlook: a year of dispersion, and why US-China relations matter

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Could the debt behind the AI boom put this rally at risk? Danielle DiMartino Booth says credit markets are already flashing warning signs, even as stocks hit record highs.

In Episode 10 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie Ghabour sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research and former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, to discuss what’s happening beneath the market’s surface.

Danielle explains why she believes the September rate hike was a policy mistake and why she thinks credit markets have already reached a breaking point. She and Eddie examine the borrowing behind AI spending, the financial pressure on American households, and why today’s mix of 1999-level valuations and 2007-level leverage leaves no playbook to follow.

They also discuss how credit problems and overseas financial stress could force the Fed to respond, and how investors might approach gold, bonds and portfolio positioning heading into 2027.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Did the Fed make a mistake by raising rates in September?

• Why credit markets are telling a different story than stocks

• Scott Bessent, Treasury purchases and the bond market

• Could rising debt undermine the AI spending boom?

• What household borrowing and missed payments reveal about consumers

• 1999-level valuations meet 2007-level leverage

• Gold, bonds and adapting to changing market conditions

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5% and the Fed has turned hawkish. So why is Eddie Ghabour adding to tech?

In Episode 9 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie breaks down the portfolio positioning changes he and his team are making heading into the fourth quarter. He explains why he's rotating out of the defensive positions they put in place earlier this year and back into technology and semiconductors.

Eddie explains why he believes the recent spike in yields could be entering its late innings, why the speed of the move matters more than whether yields remain above 5%, and what he's seeing in the market that has him adding to select areas of tech.

He also walks through the fundamental and technical signals behind recent purchases, including individual stocks and ETFs, and lays out the conditions that would make him change course.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Why a hawkish Fed and 5%+ yields didn't surprise Eddie and his team

• What Eddie means by "rolling crashes" and why he's been rotating between sectors

• Why he believes the speed of rising yields is the biggest risk to the market right now

• Why yields don't necessarily need to fall below 5% for the market to broaden its rally

• Why market breadth is a concern even as the major indices remain near highs

• Why Eddie is reversing the defensive rotation from May and June

• What he's seeing in semiconductors and technology that has him buying again

• Why strong fundamentals plus technical confirmation gives the team conviction on a name

• The individual stocks and ETFs the team is using to gain tech exposure

• What could make the thesis wrong, including oil, Iran and a further rapid rise in yields

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Can the major indexes hold near their highs while entire sectors are already in bear markets? On this episode of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie Ghabour sits down with veteran market technician Gary Kaltbaum, who argues that they can, and that price action tends to move well before the bad news arrives.

Gary walks through how he learned to read market patterns, why he puts the market first and everything else second, and what he's seeing underneath a headline index that's only a few percent off its highs: weakness across retail, airlines, cruise lines and hotels. From there, Eddie and Gary get into the concentration problem in today's market, the AI capex cycle and what happens when its rate of change slows, the circular financing that reminds Gary of 1999, and the more than $3 trillion in debt he sees building behind the AI trade. They work through the Federal Reserve and the 10-year, then close on the two things Gary is watching: yields and oil.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

Recorded Monday, September 14, ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. Eddie and Gary discuss what they believed the Fed should do, not what it did.

In this episode:

• Why Gary calls himself a fundamental technical analyst, and what the fundamental filter rules out

• The sectors already in bear markets while the headline indexes hold up

• What heavy concentration does to the biggest winners when a cycle turns

• The AI capex question Eddie sees as the real risk to the broader market

• Circular financing, credit default swaps, and the debt building behind the AI trade

• Why Gary is watching the credit lenders, and what he says actually took markets down in 2008

• Why Eddie and Gary both thought a quarter-point hike was the less painful path

• Where the next market leaders tend to show up first

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

September is, on average, the worst month of the year for stocks. So why isn't Ryan Detrick worried? Because nine of the ten worst Septembers on record came in years when the market was already down – and this one isn't.

Eddie Ghabour is joined by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, for a data-heavy look at what the rest of 2026 could hold. Ryan walks through why September depends on how you're doing going into it, why he thinks the Fed stays on pause into the midterms, where he sees the AI trade going from here, and the contrarian call that yields are still too low. Eddie lays out how the Key Advisors team is positioned into the fall — the broadening trade, software over semiconductors, healthcare, and adding to gold on the drop after the Fed chair's speech.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Why Carson's team called no recession in 2023, when the consensus forecast was a down year

• The September stat: 9 of the 10 worst came in years already down, 7 of the 10 best in years already up

• The second quarter of a midterm year is historically the weakest of 16 quarters in a presidential cycle — and how this year broke the pattern

• Ryan's read on AI bubble fears, with hyperscaler capital spending near 2.8% of GDP

• Why software took the baton from semiconductors, and what bank stocks above 2007 levels signal

• Ryan’s contrarian call that the 10-year Treasury goes higher — and the level that changes the math

• Gold, copper, and why Ryan says to diversify your diversifier 

• Whether the Fed hikes in September, and why a hike the market expects but doesn't get is net dovish

• How Eddie is positioned into the fall, and why he'd treat a September selloff as an opportunity

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Investors have gotten used to V-shaped recoveries. What happens if the next downturn isn't one?

Eddie Ghabour sits down with Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for a conversation on risk management, the AI capex cycle, and why both of them think the buy-and-hold era is nearing its limits. Darius makes the case that the fast rebound is a feature of the last two decades rather than a rule, and that most investors today have never seen anything else. He walks through the data behind it: earnings expectations three years out that would require one of the fastest growth rates in three decades of data, a capex cycle with historical rhymes going back to the railroads, and the math on why the sequence of your returns matters more than the average. They also get into what his macro model is signaling right now, why he thinks the Fed may need to tighten to satisfy the bond market, and how both of them are approaching a correction if one arrives this fall.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Darius's path from homeless shelters in St. Louis to Yale, and the advice he'd give parents before anything about markets

• Why most investors reach for risk management after the damage instead of before

• The capex bubble pattern behind the secular bear market case, from 19th-century railroads to the dot-com build-out

• What Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to earn three years out, and the growth rate it would take to get there

• Why two strategies with identical average returns can leave you with very different amounts of money

• The six macro cycles Darius tracks, and what his model reads today

• Why the bond market may be pushing the Fed toward tightening

• Why Eddie thinks the next real downturn could move faster than the last ones

  
  

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors 

Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com 

Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Some tech stocks are down 30 to 50%, the bond market just posted one of its biggest moves in 20 years, and the million dollar question is whether the bull market is over. The short answer, in our opinion, is absolutely not.

In this episode of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie walks through the Fed risk he's watching into August and September, the earnings data underneath the selloff, and how Key Advisors moved defensive in June and is now rotating back toward offense for the back half of 2026.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• Why we think the Fed is still the number one risk heading into August and September

• What the biggest bond market move in 20 years is signaling about monetary policy

• Why Kevin Warsh may end up more dovish by year-end than the market currently expects

• The earnings data behind the case that this is a correction, not the start of a bear market

• Why the equal weight S&P hitting all-time highs signals more is going well than going poorly

• The rolling correction in technology, and why we favor software and cybersecurity over semiconductors

• The trillion-dollar CapEx financing question hanging over tech in 2027

• What moved in the portfolio in June, and what the rotation from defense back to offense looks like

• The bottom line outlook for finishing 2026

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Connect with Key Advisors:

Website: keywealthmgmt.com 

Subscribe to Key's YouTube channel:

youtube.com/@KeyAdvisorsWealthMgmt

Follow Eddie on X:

x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this video by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Is AI a bubble about to burst, or the third inning of a decade-long boom?

In our first-ever guest episode of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie sits down with Dan Ives, one of the most recognized tech analysts on Wall Street. After calling a choppy summer and preparing for it, we've started buying back into tech, and this conversation maps where we feel the opportunities are and where the potential risk still sits.

They get into the bubble debate and why Dan thinks the 1999–2000 comparison falls apart once you look at real use cases and earnings, the data-center build-out he calls the "hearts and lungs" of AI, the U.S.-China chip picture, the IPO pipeline — SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI — and Dan's odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

In this episode:

• How we positioned for a choppy summer — and why we're buying back into tech now

• Dan Ives on the "third inning" of the AI revolution

• The bubble debate vs. 1999–2000

• Data centers, CapEx and the use-case cycle

• Where Dan sees the risk

• The IPO pipeline as a market catalyst

• The Tesla-SpaceX merger question

About the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Connect with Key Advisors:

Website: keywealthmgmt.com 

Subscribe to Key's YouTube channel:

youtube.com/@KeyAdvisorsWealthMgmt

Follow Eddie on X:

x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this video by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Is the market rotation a warning sign, or the setup for summer opportunity? Eddie Ghabour breaks down the rotation out of technology into economically sensitive sectors, what the long end of the bond curve is signaling about inflation and growth, why the Fed may be the biggest risk to markets this summer, and the contrarian housing call from January that may be starting to take shape. Plus, a look inside the process the team uses to make decisions.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Connect with Key Advisors:

Website: keywealthmgmt.com 

Subscribe to Key's YouTube channel:

youtube.com/@KeyAdvisorsWealthMgmt

Follow Eddie on X:

x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this video by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

A new Fed chair just made his debut — and his commitment to 2% inflation caught markets off guard. Eddie Ghabour breaks down Kevin Warsh's first meeting, why the team hedged ahead of the event, how he's reading the path for rates, and the choppy summer he's preparing for.

This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.

The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.

Connect with Key Advisors:

Website: keywealthmgmt.com 

Subscribe to Key's YouTube channel:

youtube.com/@KeyAdvisorsWealthMgmt

Follow Eddie on X:

x.com/commonsensebull 

Please note that the information and opinions presented in this video by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.