Martha, Manus, and Dianne tackle another week of economic uncertainty, breaking down the latest data—and tariff turbulence—and what it signals for CRE. Stagflation fears are creeping in as the economy weathers a turbulent cycle—much like a white-water rafting trip, where each rapid brings fresh uncertainty. Mortgage applications jumped over 20% as buyers seized lower rates, while a surprising wave of scorched land listings in LA hints at long-term fallout from recent wildfires. Dianne shares insights from the CRE activity index, with February data showing strong momentum despite macroeconomic headwinds. In Manhattan, institutional investors are eyeing opportunities as leasing activity surges, and Manus breaks down why savvy buyers are acquiring debt to skip the foreclosure line. He also reflects on a sharp question from a Clemson student at his guest lecture last week: when is the right time to pick up distressed assets? Meanwhile, the team debuts a new segment—LightBox Listings—highlighting new deals on the market. And finally, in a lighter moment, they discuss the 60-foot Kim Kardashian balloon making waves in Times Square. 

01:34 Tariff Turbulence and Investor Sentiment 

08:31 How do you Handicap the Housing Market Right Now? 

13:29 Lightbox Data Dive with Deal Activity  

17:23 Office Sector Updates 

19:36 Investor Activity in San Francisco and New York 

26:18 AI's Impact on Commercial Real Estate 

30:19 LightBox Listings and Market Activity

Have questions for the pod team? Send them to [email protected]. 

www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down the latest twists that impacted the commercial real estate market this week, from bond yields and the flipping yield curve to the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest pending home sales reading in over 25 years—all signaling a bumpy road ahead. The team asks: are we stuck in the mud? The retail sector is facing its own turbulence, with store closures and layoffs, but some positive signs as REITs predict a rollicking 2025 for retail investment. Meanwhile, the reality is sinking in about the GSA lease terminations as details emerge on which properties are on the chopping block—pulling the rug out from under parts of the D.C. (and other!) office markets—just as some were starting to show signs of life. And amid all the uncertainty, NVIDIA’s earnings were a modest beat but more importantly, offered insight into strong drivers of demand for data centers and related AI infrastructure for CRE investors and operators.

00:19 Economic Data Highlights 

01:03 Tariff Announcements and Market Reactions 

02:09 Consumer Confidence and Market Sentiment 

04:52 Housing Market Concerns 

09:40 Recession Indicators and Bond Markets 

13:33 Impact of AI and Tech Earnings 

16:15 Federal Lease Terminations and Office Market Impact 

24:53 Retail Market Updates 

36:20 Listener Comments and Final Thoughts 

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne break down a short, yet jam-packed week in the markets, from the Fed’s “status quo” minutes and weak housing data to Walmart’s downbeat retail outlook and a major shake-up in government office leases. They dissect the 2.3 million square feet of leases on the chopping block—half in D.C.—and the ripple effects for landlords, small-town economies, and lenders. While CRE sentiment is cautiously optimistic, no one’s popping the champagne just yet. The team also unpacks lodging sector trends, San Diego’s red-hot multifamily market, and growing office leasing momentum in some unexpected markets. On the retail front, the team discusses store closures, expansion plans, and newly listed properties. And in a final twist, KFC is taking the “K” out of KFC—well, sort of.

00:30 Market Reactions to Retail Sales and Walmart Earnings 

04:08 Fed Minutes and Interest Rate Speculations 

07:08 CRE Market Sentiments and Trends 

09:51 Housing Market Challenges 

12:54 Government Lease Terminations 

17:58 Lodging Sector Developments 

21:38 Positive Signs in the Office Market 

29:49 Retail Sector Updates 

33:23 Multifamily Market Insights

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

Martha, Manus, and Dianne dig into the latest economic data, including inflation reports that sent mixed signals to the markets. Consumer inflation came in hotter than expected, rattling the bond markets, while Fed Chair Powell maintained a steady stance, signaling no rush to adjust policy. The team also discussed the downstream effects of federal layoffs, the cautiously optimistic forecast for CRE lending in 2025, and the sentiment coming out of the MBA conference—where banks are back, but no one is calling the market “normal” just yet. This episode also featured a discussion about the recent LightBox Wildfires Report with insights on the environmental impact of the Palisades and Eaton fires. The discussion highlighted the hidden risks of contamination in rebuilding efforts and how environmental intelligence is shaping recovery efforts.  And, with Valentine’s Day this week, the team considers an unconventional gift option. 

02:10 Inflation Reports and Market Sentiment 

09:29 Federal Layoffs and Local Economies 

12:02 CRE Lending and Market Forecasts 

20:53 Office and Retail Market Updates 

27:00 Lightbox Data Dive: Wildfires Report 

28:50 Big Game Scorecard: How’d We Do? 

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

Investors had plenty to chew on this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from earnings reports to Trump tariff turbulence, keeping heads on a swivel amid policy uncertainty. Treasury rates drifted lower, sparking cautious optimism, while Professor Manus broke down a major federal workforce buyout and what it could mean for unemployment. On the CRE front, the LightBox Activity Index brought some reassuring news—appraisals, transactions, and ESA activity all showed year-over-year gains, a positive sign despite market volatility. Dianne shared key takeaways from her keynote at the Environmental Bankers Association Annual Conference, including a pulse check on industry sentiment. Meanwhile, the team debated the potential office rebound, green shoots in Manhattan, and what thousands of GSA lease terminations could mean for vacancy rates. And, in a Super Bowl-themed data showdown, LightBox stacked up Philadelphia vs. Kansas City using CRE metrics—check out our social channels for the full scorecard.

00:23 Market Reactions to Trump Tariffs 

01:27 Treasury Yields and Job Market Insights 

04:20 Environmental Bankers Association Conference Insights 

10:30 Lightbox Activity Index Overview 

15:15 Office Market Trends and Notable Leases 

25:21 Super Bowl Fun Facts and Predictions 

26:44 Upcoming Events and Listener Comments 

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data centers, power demand, and the broader market. The team also takes stock of CRE’s cautiously bullish outlook, from investors itching to get back in the game to the latest LightBox CRE 2025 Predictions Report, where industry veterans are throwing around phrases like if not a banner year, a better year. Will 2025 deliver on the expected CRE transition? Plus, AT&T’s sale leaseback, and sales activity trends in Chicago office, and mixed-use properties. 

00:17 Fed's Decision and Market Reactions

01:01 AI Disruptor DeepSeek Shakes the Market

02:01 Impact on Data Centers and Tech Stocks

13:47 Commercial Real Estate Predictions for 2025

19:51 Retail Sector Developments

25:01 Office Market Trends in Chicago

31:48 Sale-Leaseback Deals and Corporate Finance

33:19 Mentorship Program and Upcoming Events

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO and adjunct professor at Columbia, never holds back and this week he joined the LightBox team to break down what lies ahead in 2025. The conversation centered on key questions: Has the market soured on the Fed? What can the office market learn from retail? And what predictions does he have for the year ahead as Trump policies start to take effect? From the cautious sentiment around the increase in Treasury yields to insights on how AI is reshaping CRE asset management and portfolio strategy, Ryan gives the team his unvarnished analysis. It’s a must-listen for anyone gaming out the landscape of commercial real estate for 2025. 

02:23 Market Enthusiasm and Fed Policies 

04:14 Has the Market Soured on the Fed? 

11:20 Trump 2.0 Policy Impacts on CRE 

21:06 The Concept of Third Space in CRE 

24:26 Retail Market Misconceptions 

28:14 Office Market Evolution 

30:38 AI's Role in Commercial Real Estate 

35:39 2025 Predictions and Economic Outlook 

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

www.lightboxre.com

Fresh economic data brought a much-needed sigh of relief this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from the “Goldilocks prints” to the bullish outlook among lenders eager to return to dealmaking. Manus coined a new term, “office collateral damage,” comparing the current state of office space to the retail apocalypse of years past. The team also weighed in on the economic fallout from the Southern California wildfires and examined the rise of buy-to-convert projects—turning underperforming offices into residential properties. Amid it all, an unprecedented wave of optimism is breaking through, leaving everyone wondering just how far it can carry the market. 

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

00:15 Markets Exhale on Inflation Data 

02:52 Retail Roundup and Economic Indicators 

05:50 Optimism in the Lending Market 

09:10 Retail Trends and Store Closures 

14:59 Bank Earnings and Confidence in Lending 

18:08 Impact of LA Wildfires 

20:56 Office “Collateral Damage” Transactions and Multifamily Markets 

24:12 Market Trends and “Price Clustering” 

27:06 Future of Drone Deliveries in Retail

www.lightboxre.com

In a week that was chock full of economic data for investors to digest, there was no lack of market news for Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker to consider as a bond rout took hold, and wildfires continued to burn out of control in the Los Angeles area leaving a path of devastation. With the holidays firmly in the rear-view mirror, the team takes a spin through the spirit of the U.S. economy’s past, present, and future, starting with December’s  40-basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields, to current concerns about inflationary pressure. But there is more to come in 2025, so questions remain on how the new administration’s proposed tariffs and spending cuts could shape interest rates and CRE. Professor Manus walks through how to read the latest news on CMBS data and Dianne takes us through the LightBox CRE Activity Index. The Index dropped to 56.8 in December—a steeper-than-average 23-point decline that flies in the face of fresh optimism in the CRE market, offering a hopeful perspective on the opportunities and resilience driving the industry forward.

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

01:57 Economic Overview and Recent Events 

04:48 Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns 

09:34 Market Sentiment and CRE Enthusiasm 

11:26 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Analysis 

18:30 Who's Bullish on Office? 

21:13 Manus Does a CMBS Dive 

25:07 Leasing Trends and Notable Deals 

36:08 Multifamily Market Activity and Insights 

www.lightboxre.com

In the first episode of 2025, guest host Tina Lichens, General Manager of LightBox Capital Markets joins Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker to kick off the new year with an encouraging look back at the final few weeks of 2024 and a forward-looking discussion of expectations for the New Year. Tina’s observation of an unexpected surge in property listings on the LightBox RCM® platform during the final weeks of 2024 dovetails with bullish sentiments from industry leaders as we head into 2025. Dianne shared an early look at responses from the LightBox Capital Markets Advisory Council’s Q4 survey results. Council members’ optimism is fueled in part by the dawn of a new chapter for the office sector but tempered by the year-end high in the 10-year Treasury yield and the likelihood of interest rates staying higher for longer. Listen as Tina, Manus, and Dianne share their predictions for interest rates, dealmaking, and lending for 2025, as well as their plans for industry conferences in early 2025, including Tina’s upcoming panel on innovative applications of AI in CRE. Listen to the end for a lighthearted recap of Manus’ epic food fail and a New Year’s resolution inspired by an unlikely culinary combination. Don’t miss this blend of market insights and fun to start the year off right!

Have question for the pod team? Send them to [email protected].

01:00 Market Review: A Bumpy December Ends with Elevated 10-Year Treasury Yield 

05:15 A Surprise on the Upside for Late December   

07:00 Anecdotes from the Field for 2025 Expectations 

13:40 Interest Rate Predictions: Higher for Longer 

21:13 Transaction Velocity: Up by Double Digits YOY in 2025 As Floodgates Open 

25:45 The “Noise” on Distress and What It’s Important 

29:32 Early 2025 Conferences 

32:38 New Year's Resolutions 

www.lightboxre.com