The Cusp with Paul Fain

Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement.

Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal.

Chapters

00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared.

01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken.

03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it.

06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy.

09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example.

14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs.

16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI.

19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be.

27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution.

32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed.

35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income.

37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open.

41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea.

45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers.

48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable.

51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats.

Mentioned in this episode

Windfall Trust: Brittany Brown and Mei Fong from Windfall Trust talk with Paul Fain about how the U.S. should be preparing for AI-driven job displacement.

Windfall Trust is a policy research organization that runs scenario planning exercises to help governments and institutions prepare for AI—comparing the potential economic disruption to a natural disaster. Brown worked at the White House and the Pentagon during four presidential administrations. Fong is a former reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for her work at The Wall Street Journal.

Chapters

00:00 What Windfall Trust does: preparing for AI's economic disruption and making sure the benefits are broadly shared.

01:15 How prepared is the U.S.? The hurricane analogy: disasters hit hardest where systems are already broken.

03:40 How close is the tsunami? A "low hire, low fire" job market, hiring drops in exposed fields, and why current data misses it.

06:10 "The dam broke": The existential-risk debate, the either/or framing, and Mei's comparison to China's one-child policy.

09:10 Scenario planning, not prediction: Brittany on tabletop exercises at the Pentagon and White House, and the Russia–Ukraine example.

14:55 Inside a Windfall scenario exercise: 2028–2030 forecasts, a K-shaped economy, South Korea's chip windfall, and the U.S. tying health insurance and benefits to jobs.

16:55 Beyond unemployment numbers: Job quality, gig work, and who holds power and benefits from AI.

19:10 Getting everyone in the room: Technologists, economists, policymakers, and labor leaders, an 11-year-old's view of an AI documentary, and how similar D.C. and Silicon Valley turn out to be.

27:00 Has the Overton window shifted? Going beyond retraining: portable benefits, apprenticeships, incentives, and whether job training belongs in the solution.

32:55 Acting now: College costs and debt, states as policy testbeds, and whether support is framed as welfare or as something people are owed.

35:55 Trust in government: Findings from a 60+ country survey, including that most people would choose a job over a basic income.

37:55 Reasons for hope: The Great Society, the CDC's fight against malaria, and a window that's still open.

41:40 The data center backlash: Can grassroots opposition turn into a positive push on economic impacts? The "tip of the iceberg" idea.

45:05 How fast this needs to happen: Speed compared with past technology shifts, "no regrets" moves, and AI already affecting low-wage workers.

48:35 How to get involved: The midterms, AI in your own workplace, Flock cameras, and holding elected officials accountable.

51:05 Wrap-up: Meeting Brittany’s puppy, Beats.

Mentioned in this episode

Windfall Trust: https://windfalltrust.org/

Policy atlas: https://windfalltrust.org/policy-atlas

Scenario exercises: https://windfalltrust.org/scenarios

Survey results: https://windfalltrust.org/global-dialogues-survey

Stanford data: https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publications/canaries-in-the-coal-mine

Apollo on wages: https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/ai-lowers-wages-but-doesnt-cut-jobs

Mei Fong’s book: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/one-child-policy-ends-new-book-examines-chinas-most-radical-n462401

Gina Raimondo interview: https://thecontextwindowpodcast.substack.com/p/gina-raimondo-on-what-companies-owe

NPR on The AI Doc: https://www.wwno.org/npr-news/2026-04-21/ai-doc-explores-promises-and-risks-of-rapidly-developing-artificial-intelligenc

American Compass: https://americancompass.org/worker-power-in-the-age-of-ai/

About The Cusp

This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work.

Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletter: https://workshift.org/the-job/

All episodes: https://workshift.org/the-cusp/

Work Shift on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/workshiftnews

Brooke DeRenzis from the National Skills Coalition talks with Paul Fain about how to build a workforce agenda for the AI economy.

The National Skills Coalition is a nonprofit organization that advocates for inclusive, high-quality skills training. DeRenzis is the group’s DC-based CEO. She shares how the US can leverage bipartisan concern about AI’s impacts to improve on decades of unfinished workforce policy.

Chapters

00:00 How ready is the US?: The main workforce law is a generation old and its real funding has shrunk. The safety net is built for normal ups and downs, not structural change.

02:15 We spend far less than our peers: The US is at the bottom of the OECD chart on workforce spending.

03:15 What Americans are saying: Nobody has a crystal ball. People want to know what AI means for their own job, family and community.

06:05 From "second chance" to "first choice": Treating workforce spending as a core investment, and why the lack of partisan lines on AI is an opening.

11:45 "Job training doesn't work"?: What workers actually want: economic stability, and control over their own careers.

14:55 "Economic infrastructure": People shouldn't have to choose between putting food on the table and getting training.

17:20 Where basic income and reskilling overlap: New Mexico's guaranteed income for student parents, and pandemic emergency aid at community colleges.

20:00 The pilot problem: Low spending produces modest results, which justifies low spending. Per Scholas, and $2K training vouchers versus a $10K program.

25:05 Scaling up: Community colleges, union-management training partnerships, and employers who want in from the start.

29:40 Corporate money: Lowe's and others investing in the skilled trades, and the building of AI infrastructure itself driving demand for workers.

33:05 States or Washington? Why not to wait, and the broken promises of past economic transitions.

37:45 Pennsylvania: Deindustrialization, Gov. Shapiro's shift on data centers, and where people can look for hope.

41:40 Community anchors: Community colleges and community groups as the places people go when they're worried about work.

44:45 A New Promise of Work: About 500 conversations nationwide, policy proposals coming at the National Skills Coalition’s March 2027 Skills Summit, and who needs to champion them.

Mentioned in this episode

National Skills Coalition, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/

New Promise of Work, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/campaigns/a-new-promise-of-work/

Skills Summit, https://nationalskillscoalition.org/event/skills-summit

OECD spending, https://www.oecd.org/en/blogs/2025/11/active-labour-market-policies-in-oecd-countries-why-renewed-investment-matters.html

The $2K voucher, https://pw.hks.harvard.edu/post/publicjobtraining

Per Scholas evidence, https://mdrc.org/work/publications/long-term-effects-sectoral-advancement-strategy/file-executive

Corporate spending, https://corporate.lowes.com/newsroom/press-releases/lowes-foundation-plans-expanded-250-million-investment-help-train-and-develop-250000-tradespeople-over-next-decade-increasing-skilled-trades-workforce

About The Cusp

This podcast explores how the U.S. should be preparing for potential AI-driven disruption to jobs. Host Paul Fain talks with top experts about how the U.S. education and workforce systems can be part of the solution, what sort of policies will be needed, and who should pay for all this. The Cusp is produced by Work Shift, an independent, nonprofit newsroom reporting on connections between education and work.

Get The Job, Paul Fain's weekly newsletter: https://workshift.org/the-job/

All episodes: https://workshift.org/the-cusp/

Work Shift on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/workshiftnews

A new season of Work Shift’s podcast returns this week, tackling some of today’s most defining questions, including: How do we prepare for AI-driven job displacement?

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Tal Goldhamer, a former partner and chief learning officer at Ernst & Young. Goldhamer has an interesting take on how to think about AI, and has had a ringside seat on the technology's adoption in the workforce. Since leaving EY last year, Goldhamer has been advising businesses and colleges on how to get the most out of AI.

Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Greg Hart, the president and CEO of Coursera, which is one of the world's largest online learning platforms. Hart previously was the longtime technical advisor to Jeff Bezos, among other high-level roles at Amazon. He talks about Coursera's global perspective on the demand for AI-related skills, and how the technology is reshaping jobs.
Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

Welcome to Season 2 of The Cusp. In this episode, host Paul Fain talks with Rachel Lipson, a senior policy advisor at the U.S. Department of Commerce and the co-founder of Harvard's Project on Workforce. Rachel describes the ambition of the department's strategy on regional competitiveness, which combines workforce development with economic development while seeking to forge lasting partnerships between employers and community colleges.

Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, in-depth reporting on connections between education and work.

Host Paul Fain introduces a quick run through of soundbites from the 15 guests who helped power the inaugural season of The Cusp brought to you by Work Shift. Special thanks to all of our guests, listeners, and supporters for a fantastic first season in 2024.

Be on the lookout for more from us as Season 2 kicks off in 2025.

In the latest episode of The Cusp, host Paul Fain talks with Ron Smith, vice president of philanthropy at Salesforce. Smith, who has overseen more than $225M in giving, talks about how to be thoughtful about AI's rapid integration into education, to ensure that students aren't left behind.

Ellie Bertani, president and CEO of the GitLab Foundation, also joins Fain for this episode. Bertani describes the foundation's data-based philosophy on AI and economic mobility. She also shares an optimistic vision for the future, with concrete suggestions about how to get there.

Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.

Aneesh Raman is LinkedIn's chief economic opportunity officer. He's a former war correspondent for CNN and speechwriter for President Obama, among other star turns.

In this episode, Paul Fain talks with Aneesh about his humanistic take on the potential for artificial intelligence to usher in a more meritocratic job market and society. Aneesh takes a sweeping historical look at the coming technological disruption, with plenty of specifics, including data from LinkedIn.

Subscribe to The Cusp wherever you get your podcasts. And check out Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free reporting on connections between education and work.

Julia Lane is a renowned expert on public data. An economist, NYU professor, and regular advisor to the federal government, Julia recently advised the Commerce Department on President Biden's executive order on AI.

In this episode, Paul Fain talks with Julia about her intriguing call for a new national center on data that would measure AI's impacts on jobs—a center that exists outside of government and would be stood up by philanthropy. Julia shares her thoughts about what we don't know about AI, and how her idea for a national center could answer big questions about how the technology is playing out in the labor market.

Subscribe to The Cusp where you get our podcasts. And checkout Work Shift and The Job newsletter for agenda-free, sophisticated reporting on connections between education and work.