Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again at optionalpha.com and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be talking about when to take profits versus letting winners run. This topic basically came from a question that somebody submitted. I want to read the question here for you guys, so you guys understand the basis behind it. They said, "Kirk, given the research that you've done, I know there's been a change in when to close a position for a profit. The old guidance used to suggest taking straddles and iron butterflies off at 25% of a gain and strangles and iron condors at 50%. Now, I understand that the research shows leaving on particular straddles and iron butterflies a bit longer sometimes in the right direction and I, perhaps and others are interested in learning how you decide to take these positions off at 25% or 50% versus letting them ride a little bit longer and why the research suggest that we hold positions versus take them off. Again, learning through your thought process in these situations would be very helpful." First of all, thank you for submitting the question and as always, if you guys have questions, I want to hear them. We want to read them if you're okay with that or play it in an audio podcast on the weekly podcast if you want to submit them at optionalpha.com/ask. In any case, I'm trying to answer as many of these questions as humanly possible, so please get your questions in and don't be shy about it.
There's two things we have to talk about. One is what does the research now suggest. The old way of doing it… I don't say old way like it was a bad way. It's just we didn't have all the data that we have now on strategies. We were kind of handcuffed to a certain degree many years ago because we didn't have the ability to buy data, to build out a back-testing framework, software, technology around that. Now that we have that, we have to be realistic in that our expectations or what we're doing have now shifted a little bit. The good stuff that came out of a lot of the back-testing that we did and when we released our huge back-testing report called the profit matrix which you can get to at optionalpha.com/profit is that a lot of the key concepts that we have been preaching about from basically 10 years remains true and evident, basically that option selling works, it's the most effective strategy, taking profits early works, extending duration works, a lot of these key concepts. Now, what we have as part of that research since we subdivided each of the strategies and all the test into different buckets around implied volatility and when the trade was entered and when it was exited, where IV was, how far out it was, the frequency of the trading, whether you're doing trading weekly or daily or sequentially, now we have a lot more data around where particular profit targets need to be for situations in different markets. Although it's a good benchmark to say 25% gain or 50% gain on general strategies, we now know that in many cases, there is a more optimal exit in some market situations versus others.
Now, this doesn't mean that we now throw that completely out the window. That's still a good general benchmark. If you don't want to go through the process of buying and reading our research, no problem. You can use those benchmarks and they probably do well. But there's probably a lot better performance that you could get for many of your option strategies by using more optimized framework and data around it. That's in fact why we built the trade optimizer, to use all of this data in conjunction with current market dynamics, so that you can go in and basically say, "Okay. If the market's 40 days out till expiration and IV is here, what are the best strategies that I should be trading?" In all of that research, what we did find as an underlying thread is that generally, when you hold trades a little bit longer towards expiration, not to say you have to hold them all the way to expiration in every case, but when you hold trades a little bit longer, you get compensated by having higher returns than if you were to take them off early. Now, look. We do have to play this dance between win rate, drawdowns and total returns, but if your sole focus on trading is to generate as much money as humanly possible, then in many cases, you might need to hold past our traditional 25% and 50% levels. Now, that's going to come at a sacrifice. You can't get everything for free. You're going to give up your win rate. Your win rate is going to be a little bit lower. You're going to give up on your drawdowns. You might see a little bit higher drawdown on average. But if you're willing to withstand those fluctuations with the end in mind, you might generate some higher expected returns.
Just to shed some light on this before we get into the second part of that question which was, "How do you know when to hold it or not?" In this case, when we look at a short strangle using out heat maps that we have in the profit matrix, what we see is that in one particular series of trades that we did where you were basically testing the difference between letting a trade go all the way to expiration versus taking the trade off at 50% or 75% profit target even, we saw on average that the sharp ratio of these trades were significantly higher when you let the trade go all the way to expiration. We're looking at about an 11 sharp ratio, .11 on some trades that went all the way to expiration, so you really had no profit target in some cases. When you had a 75% profit target, you had a .7 sharp ratio and when you had a 50% profit target, you had a .05 sharp ratio. As you actually took money off the table at earlier and earlier increments, 50% versus 75% versus letting it go to expiration, you actually crippled yourself a little bit in this scenario for the ability to generate outside returns and outside gains. Now, in this case, as you took money earlier, you did have higher win rates. When you took money at 50%, you won at 69% of the time. When you took money at 75%, you won 63% of the time. It went down a little bit. When you let trades go all the way to expiration, you won 62% of the time. You can see, you are sacrificing a little bit of your win rate on the path to generating higher returns. Look. This seems very normal. The way that I read this is not some like huge revelation. Maybe you do, but I don't. It's that when you take on more risk, you should be compensated for the risk that you're taking on. When you hold trades a little bit longer towards expiration, you should be compensated for the risk that you're taking on. In my case, when I decide to get back to the second part of this question, when do we decide to let trades on maybe a little bit longer than usual, most of my decision-making is now out of my hands because I use the trade optimizer. A lot of the "decisions" that I have to make are now out of my hands. Because I optimized all of our trades, I can see exactly where I should be taking trades off at any given point before I even get into the trade. I already have those levels pre-populated in my system.
If we get to the situation where trades are now starting to hit those profit targets, then another thing that you can look at is portfolio balance or position balance. Oftentimes, if we have a trade that say at our 50% or 75% profit target early and the trade is literally in the middle of our expected range, the stock is trading at $100 and we want it to trade between $95 and $105, if the stock is trading right in the middle of our range or very close to the middle of our range, I'm probably more likely to hold the trade a little bit longer because I really don't have much to gain or lose versus if the stock is trading at one end of the extreme or not. It does come down a lot to balance too. I think that that's the second layer that you have to understand, is what does my portfolio need right now or are all my positions generally balanced. "I'm well-balanced. I don't really care where the market goes." Okay, maybe we can afford to hold another day or two or a couple of days and try to get a little bit more out of it. In most cases, we will not take trades all the way to expiration. I think taking it all the way to expiration might be an over-exaggeration because if at five or 10 days out from expiration, let's say your short strangle is worth $5, there's no reason to carry it all the way to expiration for $5. You got to be a little bit rational with your thinking around this, but hopefully this generally helped. I think that there is a lot to be learned from digging into a lot of this research. It's not going to be easy. It's not a one page report by any stretch. But it is worth its weight in gold just to understand the different nuances between different time periods and IV levels, etcetera. Again, if you guys want to learn more about that, just search profit matrix on the website and until next time, happy trading.