Hey everyone, this is Kirk here again at Option Alpha and welcome come back to the daily call. Today, we are going to be talking about a very interesting topic which is the expected probability paradox for options traders. Yes, this is what I call "the expected probability paradox." I don't know why I referred to it as that, but I did recently in a coaching session and now, I'm going to start using that because I think it actually really truly represents what this means. Here's the crux of why you're listening to this podcast or if I sent you this podcast or emailed you this podcast, added a link to it or referenced it, this is what we're going to be covering. The common question in options trading (we get this literally all the time) is – "If I'm trading at a 70% chance of success level and our max profit opportunity per trade is $100 and our max risk if we lose is say $300…" Again, showing that it's not a 1:1 relationship when trading options. If you could make $100, when you lose, you couldn't make or lose substantially more than that, maybe two or three times. I'm just using $300 in this case because it's a good round number. If we're trading at the 70% chance of success level, when we win, we make $100, when we lose, we lose $300. Then 7 out of 10 trades, we win, so we win $700, but 3 out of 10 trades, we lose and lose $900. It appears that it's either at least a zero-sum game or not. It's actually worse than a zero-sum game and at the end of 10 trades, even though we have a high probability of success, we end up losing $200. Really, what are the missing keys? Hopefully you're saying to yourself right now like, "Yes! Finally, Kirk! I want to understand this." Or if you're listening to this, you've maybe had this question pop up in your head before.
I think there's a couple of things that are missing from this whole equation that people just don't see and it becomes this iceberg effect. What I mean by this is that this paradox is like an iceberg. You see on the top level of the surface just the tip of what really goes on in the entire trading environment. And so, the top level tip looks like an iceberg. Everything below the surface though is really the mass of the iceberg. And so, in trading, people see this, they never take it beyond the entry which I think is where it starts. Everyone's missing if you ask this question. What you're missing is everything that happens post-entry. Even if you get into a trade like this and let's say I said this is a good trade to get into, still people ask, "Well, why did you get into this trade? The expected outcome is negative. It's –200 or –100 or zero. Why do you still get into this?" Well, there's a couple of things that happen beyond the trade entry that not only just happen in the environment, but also that we have control of that can tilt this thing into our favor and tilt this around from a negative expected return or a zero-sum game at the best into a positive expected return going forward.
The first thing that you have to understand is that implied volatility is always over-expecting the market to move and that implied volatility edge doesn't present itself until the end of expiration. What do I mean by this? I mean that if we have a 70% chance of success trade on trade entry, if we were actually to enter that trade over and over and over again and enter it every single time at exactly the 70% probability of success level, what we would find is that trade actually would win a margin that's higher than 70% chance of success. Call it 75%, 76%, 77% of the time. That differential is the fact that implied volatility at the time of trade entry is expecting the stock to move maybe 20%. But as you go through the actual expiration month, maybe the stock only moves 10% or 15%. It's that over-expectation of implied volatility that doesn't reveal itself, doesn't mature until the end of expiration. That's never present in the beginning. Now, we don't know what that edge is going to be. If often does change for some stocks. It's usually maybe a consistent five or six and some months, it's four and some months, it's seven, but that edge is present in the market. And so, that in and of itself means that instead of winning 70%, maybe we win 75% of the time. Okay. Now, we're starting to chip away at this. Now, we're starting to see that we're winning 7.5 times, maybe 8 times out of 10 and that starts chipping away at this potential loss. It starts chipping away at this negative expected outcome.
The second thing that you don't see in this is managing trades early for profits. What people commonly think is that if we manage trades early and say take 50% off the table early which is a common exiting plan, is taking trades off early at say 50% or 25% or 75% of profit, then what we're doing is we're actually cutting ourselves short. And to some degree, yeah, you call yourself short from the max potential profit, but what you also do is you take a trade that could've been at expiration, a massive, massive loss and because you took the trade off early, you don't experience that massive loss. Now, you increase your win rate just that much further and not only just increase your win rate, but you also cut out major losers. I could probably use a chart and point to a million examples of this happening during an expiration month. Literally, probably a million examples. It would take me a couple of days to do it, but I could point out a million examples of where trades would actually be profitable, you could take profits and if you took profits, you avoided massive losses before expiration. You've kind of cut or curved this tail end risk by managing trades early. And so, that's again, another way that you can do this. You've now start coupling these together, a little bit of over-expectation, a little bit of profit-taking, great. Now, you're starting to again, just kind of cut down this net loss.
The third thing that you can do that people always forget about after the trade gets entered is you can adjust and roll for duration. These are probably the two craziest things that you ever think about doing and people don't understand them. But once you understand that you can cut losses down dramatically by making adjustments, smart adjustments and you can roll for durations, so you can take a trade that might be a loser now, but roll that out to the next month or the next month or the next month going forward in the future and have the ability to profit further out in the future. If we have a trade right now that's like a framework of trades like the one we went through in this example where we're going to lose 30% of the time, well, what if instead of just doing nothing and taking that $300 loss, what if we were able to make a smart adjustment to that trade that cut that loss every single time that we had a loss from $300 to $200? Now, just doing that, just making that trade adjustment, now also turns us into a positive expected outcome. That's what we try to teach at Option Alpha and we got lots of examples of how to do that where you can make smart adjustments to trades without adding risk, without increasing position size that cut losses down dramatically. That's I think what makes the difference between a real trader and like a wannabe newbie trader, is this ability to take a loss and know that like, "Look. I'm going to take a loss on this trade, I've accepted the loss, but I'm not going to accept how big it is. I'm going to use what skills I have, what knowledge I have to be able to cut that loss from $300 to $200 or $300 to $150." In some cases, we've been able to cut losses by 90% just by making smart adjustments along the way. Look. If we're going to lose and the markets going to go against us, I can't control that. You can't control that. What we can control is we can control how much money we lose by making smart adjustments.
The other thing that we can do is we can roll for duration. We recently saw this back in February of this year where we had a position on in IWM that we got into November of last year and literally, we got into this IWM position at the worst possible time, right before the market started to go up on this huge run-up in November and December and into January. Every single expiration month, I rolled the iron butterfly that we had in IWM, I rolled it for a credit. Now look. We were able to roll it for a credit which is the power of using options, of being able to do this thing the smart and a logical way. But I rolled the trade from one month to the next, to the next, to the next. Three times, we rolled this thing out into the future and had to hold this trade three times. But the ability to roll that trade gave us an opportunity that when the market fell back down in February, we were able to close the position for a profit. This is a trade that would have been a loser had you just let it expire at the end of the first month and definitely would've fed into this initial topic or framework that we talked about in the beginning of the show, this massive loss where the trade doesn't go against you. But when we were able to roll the trade out into the future for credits that reduced risk as we were going out into the future, but also extended our timeline, so that we just waited for the market to come back into our range, it helped turn this thing totally around. You can't factor that in. There's no logical way to factor that into the initial assumptions that we had and presented in the beginning of this podcast.
Those are the things that I think that people are missing with this whole zero-sum, even negative expected return that you see on the front. You're only seeing just the tip of the iceberg. The paradox for options traders is that there's a lot of things that happen post-entry that you can control to help turn things around in your favor. Now, do we want to enter trades initially that have great expected returns? Absolutely. But do we need to factor these things in that we talked about on this show? 100%. You need to think about the over-expectation and implied volatility. You need to think about managing trades early and cutting losses or adjusting trades and rolling trades and cutting losses. That is a big part of doing this and that's what we try to do here at Option Alpha. Hopefully this helps out. Hopefully this answers the question. If you've been sent this and you like it or think that this was helpful, please share this online. Help spread the word about what we're trying to do here at Option Alpha or just leave us a review. I think this is one of probably the better daily podcast that we've actually done in answering a huge question in the trading community. If you thought this was helpful, please let us know. Give us a rating and a review on iTunes. It definitely helps spread the word. Until next time, happy trading!