It’s a fact of life that your bargaining power is at its weakest when you’re at your weakest. As I’ve discussed before this, paradoxically, didn’t apply to Stalin in World War II. Stalin could as easily have swapped sides, again. He had already been aligned to Hitler, during World War II. He could have joined with Hitler again if the right deal was offered. For the English, who should have done a deal with Hitler in May of 1940 after the fall of France, that was out of the question. To do that would have been morally wrong.
For Stalin, even with tens of millions of his fellow citizens killed by the Germans and vast amounts of his cities, their factories and infrastructure destroyed, that wouldn’t have mattered. If Hitler ever had an offer that he was willing to put to Stalin, that was better than what the Americans and British had on offer, he would have changed sides at the drop of a hat. Mind you Hitler, although in 1942 he had toyed with making a deal then rejected it – preferring to fight to the death.
So during World War II, when Russia was weak and on the backfoot, and that was the case pretty much from June 1941, when Hitler invaded, until at least mid-1943 to the end of 1943, the Americans and the British, in theory, should have had the better bargaining hand. But their relations with Stalin never worked out like that.
By February 1945, when the Yalta meeting took place between America, Great Britain and Russia, Russia was then clearly the strongest military power in the world on the basis of raw coal face power.
At the time of the Yalta Conferencein February 1945, America especially, but also England to some extent, had just been beaten up by the German attack known as the Battle of the Bulge. That attack most likely happened with them, and not Russia as the target, largely as a result of the Germans finding out about the Morgenthau Plan that Russian agents, at the highest level in the Roosevelt administration, had prompted the Americans and the British to adopt. If implemented it would have reduced Germany to a farm.
That offensive had removed vast amounts of tanks and troops from the Eastern Front facing Russia – against the wishes of General Heinz Guderian. It had allowed the Russian offensives in late 1944 and the beginning of 1945 to gain real ground against minimal opposition.
The Russians had launched their offensive on 12 January 1945 about the time that the Allies had finally halted Hitler’s Ardennes offensive, were starting to recover from the punishing blows they had suffered and were then pushing back to the lines they had held in mid-December.
Our friend Rokossovsky, who had had a box seat for the Warsaw Uprising, which destroyed the Polish resistance, now smashed his way into central and northern Poland and East Prussia. His Second Belorrussian Army Group came to a halt on the Oder River just 65 kilometres from Berlin.
On 17 January 1945 the Red Army had marched into the ruined capital of Warsaw. At the start of the war, Warsaw had had a population of 1.3million. By the time the Red Army entered the city in 1944 its population was reduced to just 130,000. If you want to get a good visual on what Warsaw looked like at this time watch the last scenes in the 2002 movie The Pianist.
Romania had been overrun in late 1944, and so had Hungary.
So what would Stalin want now that he was the strongest of the three Allies?
Tag words: Churchill; Prince Michael Vorontsov; Roosevelt; Livadia Palace; Tsar; Stalin; Gromyko; Uncle Joe; Rokossovsky; Stanislaw Mikolajczyk; Zygmunt
Berling; Lublin government; United Nations; Red Army; Ilya Ehrenberg; The Brothers Karamazov; Dostoevsky; Vasily Grossman; The Great Patriotic War; Red Star newspaper; Panzer General Heinz Guderian; Lavrenty Beria; Kathleen Harriman; Averill Harriman; Charles Bohlen;