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Friday night the absolutely fascinating news hit that a coup d’etat was underway in Russia, or at least an attempted one, with mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, leading troops out of Ukraine and into a city south of Moscow with significant military headquarters for Russia. Putin, of course, called the act a treasonous betrayal and vowed revenge. As the day went on Saturday it was announced that a truce had been reached and Prigozhin had called off the march on Moscow, and would be allowed to peacefully enter Belarus. But then over the next 24 hours more and more news and analysis came that seemed to indicate that, ummmm, maybe that wasn’t going to prove an entirely safe exit plan for Prigozhin.

The entire question comes down to whether or not this indicates the beginning of the end of the Ukraine war, and it is too early to tell. If nothing else, it still indicates a vulnerability for Putin, especially if reports are true that other Russian generals and oligarchs were actually favorable (quietly or out loud) to what Prigozhin was doing. I wouldn’t read too much into kneejerk responses from anyone, but it all does seem reasonable enough to say that (a) Putin’s position seems weaker than at any time since he took power, and (b) An internal Russian move may be a more likely end to Putin and the aggression against Ukraine than anything else we have seen so far.

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