Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml

David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth.

00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday

00:57 Is This the Top

02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger

04:45 The Market Vibe Problem

06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign

09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts

11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals

14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood

16:19 Fed Regime Change

19:53 Do the Right Thing

22:19 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:23 Market Rally Snapshot

00:44 Sector Winners and Losers

01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check

02:33 Jobless Claims Update

02:54 Yield Curve Flattening

03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:10 Fed Meeting Recap

01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance

01:55 Five Fed Task Forces

02:44 Reaction Function Critique

04:17 Market Selloff and Yields

05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown

06:02 Economic Data Check

06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO.

00:00 Market Recap Overview

00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot

01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence

02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally

03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals

04:07 What Drawdown Means

05:02 Wrap Up and Contact

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m

David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania

03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation

05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns

07:28 Economic and Policy Updates

09:13 Housing Sentiment Check

10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week

11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves

11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A

13:37 Knicks Championship Moment

15:31 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR

David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters.

00:00 Welcome Back Update

00:42 Why Record Early

02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup

05:00 Valuation Shockwave

08:00 IPO Pop Myth

09:38 Index Inclusion Hype

12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact

13:31 Ask Better Questions

17:16 Private To Public Shift

19:34 No Such Thing Free Money

20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adjustments develop. Economic data included a hotter-than-expected headline May PPI (1.1%) but cooler core PPI (0.4%) alongside slightly worse initial jobless claims (229k). He highlights earnings growth concentration in energy (+117%) and technology (~60%) versus weak growth in consumer discretionary and financials, and responds to a college grad’s question by framing AI as a tool, emphasizing human trust and expressing optimism about job opportunities.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:23 Market Reversal Rally

01:38 Rates and Oil Calm

02:41 PPI Inflation Breakdown

03:52 Jobless Claims Update

04:05 Earnings Sector Split

05:48 AI and Entry Jobs

07:21 Closing Remarks

07:37 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

From The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2%. Headline CPI for May was 0.5% (4.2% year over year), while core CPI was cooler at 0.2% (2.9% year over year), which he views as encouraging amid strong growth and employment. He notes oil rose but markets seem more desensitized as supply chains adapt. He also answers that splitting between a dividend growth portfolio and the S&P 500 is not a hedge due to high correlation; true hedging comes from asset allocation across stocks, bonds, alternatives, real assets, and cash.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

01:26 CPI Surprise and Fed Focus

03:13 Middle East Risks and Oil

03:50 Oil Market Adapts

04:29 Ask TBG Portfolio Hedging

05:08 Real Hedging Asset Allocation

06:00 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach on a volatile market stretch driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, renewed tech weakness, and Middle East uncertainty. The Dow rose 86 points while the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%, as equal-weight S&P outperformed cap-weighted by over 100 bps and the 10-year yield fell to 4.52%. He notes the tech sector’s nine-week 47% rally is seeing froth and sharp daily swings, alongside widening market breadth and sector rotation. Szytel urges investors to focus on fundamentals rather than popularity and dismisses warnings of simultaneous “cycle” peaks as largely unknowable and hindsight-driven. Economic updates include slightly softer NFIB optimism (still near historical average), a narrower April trade deficit to $55B, and existing home sales up 3.2% to about 4.2M.

00:00 Market Rollercoaster Recap

01:18 Tech Selloff And Rotation

02:16 Stick With Fundamentals

03:16 Ray Dalio Cycle Warnings

04:45 Quick Economic Calendar

05:39 Wrap Up And Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fE0HN7

Brian Szytel fills in for David on Dividend Cafe, recapping a mixed market day: the Dow fell about 80 points while the S&P 500 rose ~0.3% and Nasdaq ~0.8%, reflecting a rebound in tech after Friday’s sharp chip-led selloff following a nine-week, 47% tech rally. A much-stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172,000) pushed bond yields higher (10-year ~4.57%) and shifted Fed futures toward pricing possible rate hikes, with inflation still elevated and employment resilient, though labor participation remains low at 61.8% and small business hiring plans are weak. He reviews Middle East escalation and oil around $91, notes pullbacks in silver, gold, and Bitcoin, and argues their lack of cash-flow tether increases volatility. He highlights data-center capex and a bullish natural gas/pipeline thesis, and previews a coming episode on IPO mania and extreme revenue multiples.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:15 Market Recap and Tech Rebound

01:11 Rates Inflation and IPO Rules

02:51 Metals and Bitcoin Volatility

04:31 Middle East Tensions and Oil

05:21 Jobs Report and Fed Outlook

07:13 Energy Demand and Natural Gas Thesis

08:05 Wrap Up Knicks and Next Episode

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com