Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X

Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.

AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.

Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.

Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.

Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.

00:00 Snowed In Intro

01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot

03:24 AI Capex Reality Check

04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

06:33 Section 122 Workaround

08:06 Other Tariff Pathways

09:40 Economic Impact Estimates

10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout

12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts

15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode:

TheBahnsenGroup.com