Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u
A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P; 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value.  Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level.  So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind:
Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflation expectations.
We are still only 4% from all-time highs in the S&P; 500 when the historical intra-year drawdown is more like 14% on average.
So, yes, markets are down a little here, and volatility is up with higher rates, but keep in mind this is pretty run-of-the-mill market consolidation at most at this point.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 16, 2024

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business.  He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QOLsna
The second quarter of 2024 hit its midpoint this week, and markets have continued with what has been a big rally in the month of May.  As earnings season has now concluded and the Fed is sidelined for a bit, we might expect things to chill out for a bit, but markets never sleep, so who knows.  But this week’s Dividend Cafe does give you a pretty good look at the yield curve and what it predicts (or doesn’t), along with a cogent expectation for inflation, some fascinating things Japan can teach us (or not), some campaign questions for Team Biden, and then ultimately – a real behavioral lesson that may just make or break your success as an investor.
So yes, the opportunity inside this week’s Dividend Cafe is serious.  Let’s jump in!
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fear is Often a Greedy Thing

Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P; 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend.
00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day
00:38 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators: Holding Steady
01:05 Employment and Income: Signs of Economic Health
02:25 Housing Market and Inflation: A Positive Outlook
03:05 Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 16, 2024

Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers
This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April. 
These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations. 
Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates. 
00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update
01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights
01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 15, 2024

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets.  Reach out with questions anytime! questions@thebahnsengroup.com.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 14, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UXaYJe
Markets opened to the upside and then spent the first half of the day declining (but not by much) and the second half of the day around that declined spot.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 16, 2024

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