Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3pr9HgK

So another day gone by and I don’t think the world knows much more than it has 24 hours ago about Putin and the weekend coup threat.

Natural gas prices have jumped from $2 to $2.80 BTU in just 15 days or so (+40%) and not surprisingly energy stocks with a natural gas focus have done much better than those exclusively focused on crude oil. One of the energy bear arguments seems to have really dissipated, and that was the idea that exposure to higher rates would be catastrophic for the highly levered energy sector (in 2020 it was often said that the debt cliffs these companies have would usher in a wave of bankruptcies). A new survey from the Dallas Fed of 150 oil and gas companies indicated that less than 20% see tighter credit conditions having a significant impact on their business.

New home sales were up +12.2% in May (volume) with supply down to 6.7 months (had been 7.6 months). My study is starting to indicate a worthlessness to national supply data when some markets are so substantially under-supplied and some suffering from big over-supply (making the aggregate number like the guy whose “average temperature” is found with one arm in the freezer and one in the oven). But what I would point out is that median sales prices have dropped -16.2% (for new homes) since their peak, right in the middle spot of that 10-20% drop I predicted (though this is just new homes, not existing, yet).

Seattle and San Francisco, by the way, have seen double-digit median price drops of existing homes. Hmmmmm

Links mentioned in this episode: