Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P
A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps.  We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself.
I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates.  I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware).  Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do.  They can’t go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they’ve telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later.
Links mentioned in this episode:
TheDCToday.com
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 10, 2024

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business.  He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KhwHpc
A special Tuesday edition owing to the Memorial Day holiday. The podcast covers a range of topics starting with a market recap, touching on the industrial and healthcare sectors, and explaining the unusual trading patterns in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P; 500. Financial intricacies such as market breadth and credit spreads are discussed, along with the curious valuation metrics of various sectors. The housing market trends, including mortgage rates and foreclosure statistics, are highlighted. Speculations on future Fed rate cuts are discussed, emphasizing the likelihood of cuts being delayed until after the presidential election. David also explains the firm's approach to utilizing outside money managers for specific asset classes. The episode wraps up with a preview of upcoming segments and content.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 28, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UYlHC2
David discusses recent market volatility, highlighting large fluctuations in the Dow over the past few months. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-risk trades and the hazards of following market trends blindly. The speaker delves into various investor sentiment indicators, such as credit spreads and the VIX index, suggesting a current market frothiness. The main focus is on the value of diversification, both across asset classes and within them, to mitigate risk. He contrasts widespread index investing with a more concentrated approach that prioritizes dividend growth stocks. The host underscores the importance of conviction over quantity in constructing a portfolio, advocating for a strategy rooted in fundamental investment logic rather than crowd-following.
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

Diversify or Diworsify?

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the discussion revolves around a significant downturn in the market with the Dow closing over 600 points lower. However, some sectors, especially those related to AI technology, showed positive performance due to favorable earnings results. The episode delves into recent economic indicators, highlighting PMI data showing the economy's accelerated growth in May, with manufacturing and services sectors posting gains. Despite positive economic indicators, concerns remain regarding potential Federal Reserve actions on interest rates. The episode also covers lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and a decline in new home sales, attributed to higher interest rates. A Q&A; session discussed dealing with large deficits and government debt, advocating for supply-side economic policies to stimulate growth without excessively raising taxes or increasing regulation. The Bonson Group provided these insights, emphasizing that their advice does not constitute a solicitation for securities and should not replace professional tax or legal consultation.
00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe!
00:19 Market Overview: A Down Day in the Markets
00:53 Economic Indicators: PMI Data and Jobless Claims
01:57 Housing Market Insights: New Home Sales Data
02:42 Fiscal Policy Discussion: Deficits, Taxes, and Economic Growth
03:49 Closing Remarks and Contact Information
03:59 Legal and Advisory Disclosures
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 23, 2024

This episode of Dividend Cafe offers a commentary on the recent market downturn, noting a 201 point drop in the Dow and a slight rise in volatility. The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes are discussed, revealing some disappointment in inflation data but maintaining a medium-term 2 percent inflation target. The episode also covers lower than expected April existing home sales, likely due to tight housing inventory and higher rates, yet notes a 5.7 percent year-over-year price increase. UK inflation rose slightly more than expected to 2.3%, attributed to weaker economic fundamentals compared to the US. China's potential increase in tariffs on large autos from the US and Europe is mentioned, seen as a tit-for-tat move against the Biden administration's tariff raises. Additionally, the episode previews economic indicators to be released the following day, including jobless claims and PMI numbers. The Bonson Group's role as investment professionals and the disclaimer regarding investment risks and advice conclude the commentary.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe
00:18 Market Movements and Federal Reserve Insights
01:16 Housing Market Dynamics
02:10 Global Economic Indicators: UK Inflation and China's Tariff Strategy
02:48 Looking Ahead: Economic Calendar and Closing Thoughts
03:10 Disclaimer and Professional Advice Notice
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 22, 2024

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a weekly market commentary with a focus on dividends and economic insights. On May 21, the markets saw a slight increase despite the lack of major economic news, with the Dow up by 66 points and both NASDAQ and S&P; 500 up by about a quarter of a point. Interest rates were slightly down, with the 10-year treasury dropping three basis points. Fed officials, including Waller, shared diverse views on the economy, generally indicating a cautious approach towards changing interest rates. The episode also discusses the current low market volatility, compares GDP in aggregate versus per capita with Japan as a case study, and looks ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales reports. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent due to current positive market conditions.
00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe
00:16 Market Overview: A Quiet Summer Day
00:45 Federal Reserve Speakers and Interest Rate Insights
01:22 Market Volatility and Economic Indicators
02:39 GDP Insights and Global Economic Trends
03:21 Looking Ahead: FOMC Meeting and Home Sales
03:34 Closing Remarks and Compliance Information
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 10, 2024

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