The Debate

Don't blink, or you'll have missed the shortest electoral campaign in the history of France’s Fifth Republic. Will nineteen days of canvassing have moved the needle since Emmanuel Macron's surprise dissolution of parliament on the night of the European elections? Not according to polls. They suggest the president may regret his decision to clear the air. The far right has never been closer to power since the Nazi collaborator regime of Vichy.

An even shorter sprint starts on Sunday night at 8pm local time, when the polls close in the first round of voting. France's legislative elections are actually 577 individual races that feature a second round the following week. What alliances could we see? What are the chances of an outright majority for Marine Le Pen's National Rally?

What message do citizens of the European Union's second-largest economy really want to send for a national contest … with worldwide consequences?

Produced by Siobhan Silke, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

 

Many who read the polls might say 2024 seems like the year of living dangerously. No one is arguing about who's got the momentum, only four days out from snap legislative elections here in France and on the eve of the first presidential candidates' debate in the United States.

French voters can argue that they've tried all the others, so why not the far right? They also assume that Marine Le Pen's party will be less Eurosceptic once confronted with the hard reality of governing, like what has happened in Italy with Giorgia Meloni.

But how, then, to explain Donald Trump's brand of politics? He is not untested. On his watch, supporters tried to overturn the outgoing US president's electoral defeat by force on January 6, 2021. Why does he have the momentum?

President Emmanuel Macron has been blasted for gambling away his relative majority on a snap election that does not give citizens enough time to reflect. Americans will have had four long years to do so. In both cases, are the one-third of voters solidly behind illiberal parties bigger risk takers than Macron? Or do they feel that they have nothing to lose?

Produced by Aline Bottin, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

When Iran's ageing supreme leader is urging citizens to get out and vote, you can only guess that what's really at stake is turnout. We ask if there's more than meets the eye to a heavily-vetted presidential contest precipitated by last month's death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

To stop Iran's sliding abstention rate, this time organisers allowed a candidate billed as a reformist to stand alongside five hardliners. They include regime heavyweights, each of whom – in the land that invented chess – has his own agenda and strategy.

So what kind of a snapshot will Friday's vote offer for an under-sanctions regime that's for now put a lid on the "Women, Life, Freedom" protests of 2022 and cosied up to sometimes rival Russia? How far does the showdown go with an Israel whose leadership wants to dial up the fighting with proxy militia Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a US that is – at least until that other election in November – trying to keep a lid on it all?

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Elena Colonna, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

In the blink of an eye, France is already into the final days of campaigning; a speed-dating exercise that has got the far right more than ever knocking on the doors of power. Polls suggest that Emmanuel Macron's surprise decision to dissolve parliament just two weeks ago has not sparked a rethink. On the contrary, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella continue to carry the momentum from their record tally at European elections earlier this month.

In fact, a full one-quarter of French voters told an Ipsos poll for the Financial Times that they trust the National Rally more on the economy than Emmanuel Macron's centrists or the left-wing alliance. Other than an unconstitutional pledge to reduce benefits and public services for immigrants, the party that once spooked voters with its now-defunct call to leave the euro still remains fuzzy on how it will pay for all its campaign promises. So why the leap of faith?

Under Macron, unemployment is down and foreign investment is up. But a soaring cost-of-living crisis has stoked genuine fear that middle-class families could slide into poverty. Put the far right's great replacement theory to one side. For these citizens, it feels like a great demotion. Who can best address their genuine concerns?

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Aline Bottin, Elena Colonna, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

You know you've got a reclusive regime when an outside world hungry for clues salivates at the prospect of a visit by Vladimir Putin. Putin is on his first visit to North Korea in 24 years. We ask our panel what they’ve parsed from reviews of honour guards, official communiqués and hagiographic state media coverage. More broadly, do these images project strength or weakness?

Will Putin get the mortar shells and missiles he needs for his war in Ukraine? Will Kim Jong Un get the sanctions-busting link to the outside world that Pyongyang needs to ease some of its dependence on that other neighbour, China?

And what about the spiking tensions with Pacific rivals, starting with South Korea? We ask about warning shots again this week across the 38th parallel and recent ballistic missile tests in the Pacific that have the South Koreans drawing closer to old rivals Japan. We focus a lot on Taiwan, but what about the Korean peninsula?

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Louise Guibert. 

There has been no ceasefire in Gaza since November. And just as tensions were subsiding a little, fears are now growing over Lebanon. We ask, in light of the latest border incidents, whether initial fears of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah could still prove true.

In hindsight, Iran's first-ever direct missile attacks on Israel back in April seemed like a symbolic gesture, but it certainly got Binyamin Netanyahu's top brass's attention. The same top brass is at loggerheads with the prime minister over the lack of an exit strategy in Gaza.

Netanyahu has managed to steady his political ship despite foreign and domestic pressure to resign, to the point where he can do without the opposition in a unity war cabinet. By dissolving that war cabinet, he's stared down his own far-right coalition partners. 

But for how long? And how long can the rest of the world feel the spillover? In France, eight months of war in the Middle East have strained political alliances to the point where divisions could prove a factor in crucial snap legislative elections where every vote counts.

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Melissa Kalaydjian

To Americans who complain that their election campaigns drag on for far too long, welcome to France where it is indeed a sprint, not a marathon.
 

Here, politicians have 12 short days to convince in snap legislative elections that could redraw France – and Europe's – political landscape. Hard to believe it's only been a week since a far-right surge in European elections sparked Emmanuel Macron's shock decision to dissolve parliament. 

With the country split in three between a hastily concluded alliance of the left, the centre-right under Macron, and Marine Le Pen's National Rally, we ask which way the pendulum is about to swing and whether calls for a "Republican front" against the far right still resonate, even when they come from stars of the national football squad.

France's president has been roundly criticised for taking too great a leap into the unknown with his "clear the air" strategy of sending citizens back to the polls. The question now is whether voters, too, are willing to take a gamble and flirt with a rollback of the French republic's universal values.

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

What are summits about? Most of the time, minions and sherpas have long before agreed on policy points before the red carpet has even been rolled out. Arguably most important in a summit are the photo ops: a chance for politicians to show they are at the helm, helping to rule the world in a spirit of cooperation. So what does this lot rule over? Dateline the Puglia resort of Borgo Egnazia on Italy’s Adriatic coast. 

The radiant host is Giorgia Meloni, the far-right leader who finished tops in her country in last Sunday’s European elections. Watch all the other G7 leaders. How forced are the smiles for more mainstream incumbents? They’re either reeling from last Sunday, looking over their shoulder as they prepare to face electoral verdicts to come, or in some cases, both.

French President Emmanuel Macron did so badly against the far right that he has called snap legislative elections. Does this summit mark the dying days of a certain kind of Western world order? That brings us to the other reason why summits matter: sidebar talks. 

Liberal democracy is not on the official agenda. So what kind of notes will those weakened incumbents trade on the sidelines as they do battle with a populist surge?

Produced by Maya Yataghene, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown.

Let's start with the good news for Ukraine. Long-range weapons from the West have finally arrived, with more on the way, and the Russian offensive of the past month seems to be stalling. Now for the not-so-good news. As Volodymyr Zelensky lobbies a repair and reconstruction conference in Berlin, his country might be on borrowed time.

We ask about plans to sell state assets to pay for the war and Western backers looking over their shoulders after Sunday's European elections. The far right National Rally, which borrowed money from Russia for a 2017 campaign loan, did so well in France that the president triggered snap legislative elections. Fears that supporting Ukraine could lead to World War Three resonate with Marine Le Pen's voters and the far left. 

That's the mood music that takes Zelensky from Berlin, to Thursday’s G7 summit, to the one he is organising this coming weekend in Switzerland in a bid to rally support for a long-term plan. What's at stake in the days ahead?

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown. 

When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, everyone knew war would follow. But few probably expected it to last eight long months in one of the world's most densely populated areas. Will the latest hopes of a truce once again be dashed? Critics contend that for leaders on both sides, managing a war is easier than ending it. After all, they run the risk of being held to account once it's over.

Yet this time, could outside pressure finally bear fruit? The opposition is quitting Israel's war cabinet. That gives Binyamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition free rein, but also full responsibility.

There is also the UN Security Council, which doesn't agree on anything these days, agreeing on a US ceasefire resolution. Can Netanyahu stick to his guns and can Hamas continue to hold innocent hostages in urban areas with no regard to the dangers exposed on innocent civilians all around? More broadly, how to finally get a deal over the line?

Produced by Alessandro Xenos, Rebecca Gnignati and Juliette Brown.