In Nico's market notes we discuss about the equity market bounce in a context of a deteriorating outlook, the upcoming ECB meeting and the way we have managed our portfolio at Monetharia in the last few days (including a long position in Ethereum).

Read more on  www.monetharia.io/posts/25-10-2022.

In Nico's market notes we discuss about the weekly macroeconomic and market developments we observe and interpret on our www.monetharia.io/blog. In this episode we discuss about the very little volatility observed in the bitcoin, and the increase in mining difficulty that might put some miners under stress. Stock markets have bounced without any fundamental reason, and might continue to do so in the short term as markets are oversold and cash-rich investors automatically buy at resistance levels. Bonds have instead behaved more rationally, with yields continuing to go higher. In parallel, inflation signals may indicate that we are about to reach a peak in several geographies, even if this does not mean that central banks will stop hiking rates anytime soon. It is not the market bottom. Read more on www.monetharia.io/posts/18-10-2022.

Nico's market notes is a podcast based on the macroeconomic and market developments we observe and interpret on our www.monetharia.io/blog. Well, in this episode we discuss about the updates monitored in the last few days. Financial markets have kicked-off another tentative rally last week, believing the emergency QE kicked-off by the bank of England as well as a dovish hike in Australia would be the first signs of central bank panic. Such panic would anticipate a transition from hiking to cutting rates soon enough. But - like in the summer - the illusion did not last long, with markets turning red shortly after. Instead, the dominating narrative of 2022 - higher interest rates to fight inflation - will continue for some more time. There will be no pivot anytime soon, even if we are not far from the end of the hiking journey. In practice, we should expect more market under-performance in the coming weeks. Read more on www.monetharia.io/posts/11-10-2022. Thanks and speak soon.

In this episode, we discuss about the consequences of the mini-budget proposed by the new government, which required a massive intervention in local government bond markets by the Bank of England, to save UK pension funds. Such intervention, declared to be short-lived, has instead prompted markets to believe that central banks could be close to panic (=ready to pivot). But that would be an error. In fact, we have a few more months of rate hikes before reaching a plateau. In parallel, European inflation has come out at 10.0% for September, a record level, but there's a felling (because of falling gas prices) that a peak is close. The ECB and the Fed are anyway expected to hike rates until June 2023 and March 2023 respectively. We also discuss about rising probabilities of a US recession, and volatility in European bond markets. Finally, we discuss about the current resilience of the bitcoin (since a month ago), relative to other assets, even if that does not mean that is time to buy, as the macroeconomic outlook keeps darkening. In our portfolio, we navigate the Bank of England-induced market bounce for this week, expecting to close some positions as soon as early next week.

In questo episodio parleremo dell' ultimo dato di inflazione europea del 10% e di come forse abbiamo raggiunto un possibile picco. Parleremo anche di un aumento delle probabilita' di recessione negli Stati Uniti e di come proteggerci usando bond governativi. Infine parlermeo del grande pasticcio del nuovo Governo inglese con tagli di tasse mal digeriti dagli investitori, e della manovra di emergenza della Banca Central di Inghilterra, che ha spinto i mercati a pensare che fossimo arrivati a un tetto di aumento di tassi. Ma si tratta solo di una illusione momentanea.

En este episodio hablamos de los ultimos numeros relativos a la inflacion en Europa, de la crisis en los mercados financieros en Reino Unido y de un aumento de la probabilidad de recesion en EEUU. Ademas, contamos de como los mercados financieros, que siguen bajando, hayan subido en los ultimos dos dias en la nueva ilusion de que la movida de emergewncia del BoE sea una manifestacion de panico de los bancos centrales. Asi no es. Cualquier rally a corto plazo va a tener una vida muy corta.

La Reserva Federal está ajustando la política monetaria hacia arriba al ritmo más rápido visto en los últimos 40 años, con la promesa de impulsar la tasa de interés hasta el primer trimestre del 2023 como minimo. Y otra vez, los mercados fueron tomados por sorpresa. En resumen, la caída una ralentizacion del crecimiento, los aumentos continuos de tipos y la mayor acumulación de inventario de viviendas en EE. UU. en los últimos 15 años (= o sea, casas disponibles sin vender) significan dos cosas: 1, muchos más problemas para los activos de riesgo a corto plazo, 2. las tasas más altas van, más probable una recesión. El contenido no es consultoria financiera. Publicamos contenido semanalmente aqui: www.monetharia.io/blog. Saludos.

The Fed is tightening monetary policy at the fastest pace seen in the last 40+ years, promising to push interest rate higher well into 2023. Markets were caught by surprise. Falling growth, ongoing hikes and the biggest US housing inventory build-up in the last 15 years (=unsold real estate) mean two things: 1, many more troubles for risk assets in the short-term, 2. the higher rates go, the more likely a recession. We will discuss about this, and much more, in the episode. Not financial advice. Follow us on www.monetharia.io/blog. Thanks!

La Fed sta inasprindo la sua politica monetaria al ritmo più veloce visto negli ultimi 40+ anni, promettendo di spingere i tassi di interesse ancora più in alto fino al 2023 inoltrato. E scorsa settimana i mercati sono stati colti di sorpresa. 

Crescita in calo, aumenti di tasso in corso ed il più grande accumulo di scorte immobiliari negli Stati Uniti negli ultimi 15 anni (=case invendute) significa due cose: 1, vedremo molti più problemi per gli attivi di rischio a breve termine, e 2. più aumentano i tassi di interesse piu alti, più è probabile che arrivi una recessione. Parleremo di questo, e altro ancora, nell'episodio in corso. 

Non si tratta di una consulenza finanziaria. 

Seguici su www.monetharia.io/blog. Grazie!

Buongiorno amici e colleghi, e grazie per seguire il nostro podcast. Questa settimana discutiamo dell'evoluzione nei dati inflattivi e la reazione attesa da parte delle banche centrali. La Fed ha annunciato un ulteriore aumento dei tassi d'interesse di 75bps, annunciando possibili nuovi aumenti aggressivi anche per Novembre. Se non e' chiaro con quale velocita' arrivera' la recessione in Europa (4o trimestre del 2022) e negli Stati Uniti (1a meta' del 2023), e quindi quale sara´l'impatto (negativo) sui ricavi aziendali e dunque sui mercati azionari, gli investitori sono invitati alla prudenza. Discuteremo anche dei cambi nel nostro portafoglio.