The Decision Dividend

The Decision Dividend

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The Decision Dividend episodes

  • How to Give More Intentionally with Dr. Shanaysha Sauls

    Giving sounds easy. Giving well takes thought.

    In Episode 43 of The Decision Dividend, Dr. Shanaysha Sauls, President & CEO of the Baltimore Community Foundation, joins us to discuss her simple framework for charitable decision-making.

    Gut. Head. Heart.

    Together we discuss:

    • How thoughtful donors evaluate nonprofits before making significant gifts 
    • What Form 990s and funding sources can reveal about a nonprofit's financial resilience
    • Why overhead is often misunderstood and impact is difficult to measure 
    • How families can transfer not just wealth, but philanthropic values and legacy 
    • How businesses can develop a giving strategy that reflects their values and community priorities

    Chapters

    00:00 Giving Sounds Easy. Giving Well Takes Thought.

    06:21 What Community Foundations Actually Do
    09:43 Defining Your Philanthropic Why
    14:55 Gut. Head. Heart.
    19:22 Understanding Nonprofit Funding Sources
    26:04 The Truth About Overhead
    32:36 Measuring Impact Beyond Outputs
    39:44 Transferring Legacy Across Generations
    47:51 Building a Corporate Giving Strategy
    52:29 The One Question Every Donor Should Ask


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    Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This material is not tax or legal advice. Consult qualified tax and legal professionals before implementing a charitable-giving strategy.

    51 min
  • The Most Important Number in Finance: The Risk-Free Rate

    What it is, why it matters, and who really sets it.

    Interest rates influence nearly every financial decision, from what you earn on cash to what you pay on a mortgage and how stocks, bonds, real estate, and businesses are valued. But despite how often we hear about “the interest rate,” there is no single rate, and the Federal Reserve does not control all interest rates.

    In Episode 42 of The Decision Dividend, Pat Collins and Marcus Schafer explain the risk-free rate, the forces that shape it, and what changes in interest rates actually mean for savers and borrowers.

    You’ll learn:

    • Why “the interest rate” is actually a curve with different rates for different time periods
    • How the Federal Reserve and financial markets each influence interest rates
    • How changing rates may affect your cash, debt, investments, taxes, and financial plan

      • Market rates and statistics are as of August 27, 2026.

      Sources

      1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “15 Selected Interest Rates.”
      2. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Monetary Policy Implementation.”
      3. Eugene F. Fama, “Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?” The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 2013. Fama, “Does the Fed Control Interest Rates?”
      4. John H. Cochrane, “Who Is Walking Who?” 2015. Cochrane, “Who Is Walking Who?”
      5. Dimensional Fund Advisors, “What Happens to Stocks When Interest Rates Change?”
      6. Vanguard, “Why Higher Yields May Be Good for Many Retirement Investors,” 2023.
      7. Federal Reserve H.15 and Federal Reserve Bank of New York for rates
      8. Investment Company Institute [for money market fund assets] https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf
      9. YCharts https://www.linkedin.com/posts/-justinbrown_investing-chartoftheweek-activity-7498762196001157120-vdPh?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAADVDgmAB8c4Wr1FL_cn1hvA9192lEx_eUYQ

        10.  

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        Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

         

        47 min
      10. License to Spend: How to Use Money to Build a Happier Life

        Last episode explored how more money can improve well-being. So, how should you spend it to improve your life?

        In Episode 41 of The Decision Dividend, Pat Collins and Marcus Schafer explore research suggesting that experiences, spending on others, and buying back time often produce more happiness than material purchases alone.

        You’ll learn:

        • Why experiences create lasting happiness through anticipation, connection, and memories
        • How giving to others can strengthen relationships and create a greater sense of purpose
        • Why buying back time can reduce stress and make room for what matters most
        • How to make material purchases more rewarding

          •  

          Episodes Referenced

          Episode 40, Can Money Buy Happiness? A Nobel Laureate’s Famous Finding Revisited

          Episode 10, How Much Money Do I Need to Retire?

          Episode 33, Where Should Your Extra Savings Go?

           

          Sources

          1. Elizabeth W. Dunn, Daniel T. Gilbert, and Timothy D. Wilson, “If Money Doesn’t Make You Happy, Then You Probably Aren’t Spending It Right,” Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2011. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1057740811000209
          2. Thomas Gilovich, Amit Kumar, and Lily Jampol, “A Wonderful Life: Experiential Consumption and the Pursuit of Happiness,” Journal of Consumer Psychology, 2015. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105774081400093X
          3. Bill Perkins, Die With Zero: Getting All You Can from Your Money and Your Life, 2020. https://dwzero.com/
          4. Leaf Van Boven and Thomas Gilovich, “To Do or to Have? That Is the Question,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2003. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14674824/
          5. Elizabeth W. Dunn, Lara B. Aknin, and Michael I. Norton, “Spending Money on Others Promotes Happiness,” Science, 2008. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18356530/
          6. Lara B. Aknin, Elizabeth W. Dunn, and Michael I. Norton, “Happiness Runs in a Circular Motion: Evidence for a Positive Feedback Loop Between Prosocial Spending and Happiness,” Journal of Happiness Studies, 2012. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=42426
          7. Ashley V. Whillans, Elizabeth W. Dunn, Paul Smeets, Rene Bekkers, and Michael I. Norton, “Buying Time Promotes Happiness,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1706541114
          8. Sandra C. Matz, Joe J. Gladstone, and David Stillwell, “Money Buys Happiness When Spending Fits Our Personality,” Psychological Science, 2016. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27056977/
          9. https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plan-and-ira-required-minimum-distributions-faqs

            10. Follow The Decision Dividend

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            Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

            38 min
          10. Can Money Buy Happiness? A Nobel Laureate’s Famous Finding Revisited

            The headline was simple: happiness reaches a point of diminishing returns around $75,000 of income. The research that followed revealed a more complicated reality in which additional income can still improve well-being, but not equally for everyone or in every circumstance.

            In Episode 40 of The Decision Dividend, Pat Collins and Marcus Schafer explore what the evolving evidence can teach us about money, happiness, and the meaning of “enough.”

            You’ll learn:

            • What the original $75,000 happiness study actually found and how newer research changed its interpretation
            • The one question Pat asked to get his family talking about money and why the same dollar can represent security, freedom, or generosity to different people
            • How high earners and millionaires can make more intentional financial decisions, including whether to work longer, spend more, or use their wealth to create greater belonging and purpose

              • For a deeper look at the financial side of defining enough, revisit Episode 10, How Much Money Do I Need to Retire?

               

              Chapters

              00:00 Can Money Buy Happiness? (1, 2, 3)

              03:37 Measuring Happiness and the Famous $75,000 Finding (1)

              10:44 What Does “Enough” Really Mean?

              15:50 How Income Affects Happy and Unhappy People Differently (2, 3)

              18:29 Wealth, Luck, and Gratitude

              22:31 Security, Belonging, and Purpose

              27:25 What Does Money Mean to You?

              31:12 How High Earners and Millionaires Can Think About Spending

              35:41 Buying Back Time and Strengthening Relationships

              40:17 Should You Work One More Year?

               

              Sources

              • Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, “High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but Not Emotional Well-Being,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010
                • https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1011492107
              • Matthew A. Killingsworth, “Experienced Well-Being Rises with Income, Even Above $75,000 per Year,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021
                • https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2016976118
              • Matthew A. Killingsworth, Daniel Kahneman, and Barbara Mellers, “Income and Emotional Well-Being: A Conflict Resolved,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2023
                • https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2208661120

                 

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                Sources include Kahneman and Deaton (2010), Killingsworth (2021), and Killingsworth, Kahneman, and Mellers (2023). These studies report population-level associations between income and self-reported well-being; they do not establish causation or predict results for any individual. Study measures, samples, and income levels differ.

                This discussion is for educational purposes and is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Financial planning involves assumptions and cannot assure that goals will be achieved. Individual circumstances and outcomes vary. The examples and heuristics referenced are illustrative rules of thumb, not planning advice.

                Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This discussion is for educational purposes and is not individualized investment, tax, or legal advice. Financial planning involves assumptions and cannot assure that goals will be achieved. Individual circumstances and outcomes vary.

                41 min
              • Is Direct Indexing Worth the Complexity with Brant Cavagnaro

                Have markets and technology advanced enough that investors should consider owning the individual stocks in an index rather than investing through a pooled vehicle such as an ETF or mutual fund?

                In Episode 39 of The Decision Dividend, we’re joined by Brant Cavagnaro to explore how direct indexing works, who may benefit most, and when a low-cost commingled fund may still be the better choice.

                You’ll learn:

                • What distinguishes direct indexing from an ETF, mutual fund, or traditional separately managed account
                • How direct indexing may turn tax drag into potential tax alpha, even in rising markets
                • Which investors may benefit most from personalizing portfolios, harvesting losses, offsetting large gains, and donating appreciated securities
                • The limits of direct indexing, from the downsides of personalization to tax benefits that may fade over time

                  • Sources

                  1. Shomesh E. Chaudhuri, Terence C. Burnham, and Andrew W. Lo, “An Empirical Evaluation of Tax-Loss-Harvesting Alpha,” Financial Analysts Journal, 2020
                    2. https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/research/financial-analysts-journal/2020/0015198x-2020-1760064
                  2. Vanguard, “Tax-Loss Harvesting: Why a Personalized Approach Is Important”
                    3. https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/tax_loss_harvesting_why_a_personalized_approach_is_important.pdf
                  3. Libor Gromis, Nathan Sosner, and Steven Krasner, “The Tax Benefits of Direct Indexing: Not a One-Size-Fits-All Strategy,” AQR
                    4. https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/The-Tax-Benefits-of-Direct-Indexing
                  4. Savina Rizova and Mark Krasniewski, “A Historical Perspective on Multifaceted Tax Management,” Dimensional Fund Advisors, 2025
                    5. https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/a-historical-perspective-on-multifaceted-tax-management

                    For a broader look at how direct indexing fits alongside other investment innovations, revisit Episode 27, The Future of Investment Management:

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NktNNSc44NM&t=492s

                    Follow on Apple Podcasts:

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                    Subscribe for Email Updates:

                    https://greenspringadvisors.com/the-decision-dividend/

                    Meet with Pat & Marcus:

                    https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com

                    Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                     

                    42 min
                  5. Don’t Let Taxes Choose Your Retirement State

                    Retirement is a natural time to rethink where you live. But moving states is not just a tax decision.

                    In Episode 38 of The Decision Dividend, Pat and Marcus discuss how to evaluate a retirement move by starting with quality of life, then running the numbers. The goal is not to ignore taxes, but to understand them in the context of your actual retirement income, residency, housing, insurance, and relationships.

                    You’ll learn:

                    • Why retirement tax rates can look different from your working years
                    • How even modest tax savings can compound, and where timing creates planning opportunities
                    • Why lower taxes can be offset by other costs, and why the best moves strengthen relationships

                      • Chapters

                      00:00 Don’t Let Taxes Choose Your Retirement State

                      02:13 Relationships Before Tax Rates (1)

                      05:46 Why Retirees Move States (2)

                      08:14 Cost of Living vs. Tax Rates

                      11:38 Retirement Income Tax Differences (3, 4)

                      14:27 Residency and Second Homes

                      18:27 Survivor Tax Penalty and Estate Taxes

                      23:04 Timing the Move and Planning Opportunities

                      31:35 The Costs That Offset Tax Savings

                      35:32 Quality of Life First, Money Second

                      Sources

                      1. Harvard Study of Adult Development, “Grant and Glueck Study.”
                        2. https://www.adultdevelopmentstudy.org/grantandglueckstudy
                      2. SmartAsset, “Where Retirees Are Moving - 2025 Study.”
                        3. https://smartasset.com/data-studies/where-retirees-move-2025
                      3. Fidelity, “The Best States to Retire for Taxes.”
                        4. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/best-states-to-retire-for-taxes
                      4. Fidelity, “Is Social Security Income Taxed?”
                        5. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/is-social-security-taxed

                        Related episodes

                        The Goal of Tax Planning is to Minimize Lifetime Taxes

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yqL1F5lCCI

                        Where Should Your Extra Savings Go? | The Decision Dividend #33

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeusOx0uNEU

                        Should You Sell or Borrow from Your Portfolio? | Return on Reason #30

                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlhdhEhDx1I

                        Follow and subscribe

                        Follow on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982

                        Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8?si=Qxj-H7HiRdGmbNlW8uuV9g

                        Subscribe for Email Updates: https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast

                        Meet with Pat & Marcus: https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com

                        Disclaimer

                        Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. While no single study can determine what is most important for every individual, this research illustrates that non-financial considerations can play an important role when evaluating retirement decisions.

                         

                        * CFP Board owns the marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the U.S.

                        37 min
                      5. How to Exit a Rental Property Tax-Efficiently with Dan Mong

                        A rental property can have been a great investment and still no longer be a great investment to keep. Deciding what to do next requires weighing not just the expected return, but the broader set of tax-efficient exit options available to real estate owners.

                        In Episode 37 of The Decision Dividend, we’re joined by Dan Mong, one of Greenspring’s most experienced advisors in real estate planning, to assess a property’s expected return and weigh the after-tax tradeoffs of selling, refinancing, or reinvesting.

                        You’ll learn:

                        • How to periodically reassess a rental property’s investment performance using cap rate, return on equity, and its expected return relative to other opportunities
                        • How capital gains, depreciation recapture, net investment income tax, and taxable “boot” can affect the after-tax outcome of a sale or exchange
                        • How the main options work, including selling and reinvesting the proceeds, refinancing, completing a 1031 exchange, and investing through a Delaware Statutory Trust (DST)

                          • Chapters

                          00:00 How to Exit a Rental Property Tax-Efficiently

                          02:08 Should You Keep or Sell?
                          11:24 The Tax Cost of Selling
                          16:44 Sell, Reinvest, or Refinance
                          23:29 How a 1031 Exchange Works
                          32:02 When a 1031 Exchange Becomes Taxable
                          35:20 Delaware Statutory Trusts
                          45:40 Start With the End Goal

                          Related episode:

                          Real Estate: Expected Returns and Expected Headaches | The Decision Dividend #9

                          Learn More About Dan Mong:

                          https://greenspringadvisors.com/about/team/daniel-mong-cfp/

                          Follow on Apple Podcasts:

                          https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982

                          Follow on Spotify:

                          https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8?si=Qxj-H7HiRdGmbNlW8uuV9g

                          Subscribe for Email Updates:

                          https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast

                          Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                          47 min
                        • Can You Be a Part-Time Fiduciary?

                          Can someone be a fiduciary while also earning commissions for selling financial products? The answer is more complicated than many investors realize.

                          In Episode 36 of The Decision Dividend, Pat Collins and Marcus Schafer explore the history and meaning of fiduciary duty, the different standards governing financial advice, and the signals investors can use to evaluate an advisor.

                          You’ll learn:

                          Why fiduciary duty requires the duty of loyalty and the duty of care.

                          How investment advisers, broker-dealers, hybrid advisors, and CFP professionals can operate under different standards and forms of oversight.

                          Why investors should evaluate compensation, registration, credentials, experience, and firm structure together rather than relying on a single label.

                           

                          Sources

                          1. Douglas Harper, “Fiduciary,” Online Etymology Dictionary. https://www.etymonline.com/word/fiduciary
                          2. Irina Gvelesiani, “From the History of the Development of ‘Trust’ and Terminological Units Related to It,” Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference, 2013. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286912647_From_the_History_of_the_Development_of_Trust_and_Terminological_Units_Related_to_it
                          3. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Commission Interpretation Regarding Standard of Conduct for Investment Advisers,” Release No. IA-5248, 2019. https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2019-12208
                          4. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Regulation Best Interest: The Broker-Dealer Standard of Conduct,” Release No. 34-86031, 2019. https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2019/06/s7-07-18
                          5. CFP Board, “Code of Ethics and Standards of Conduct.” https://www.cfp.net/ethics/code-of-ethics-and-standards-of-conduct
                          6. Electronic Code of Federal Regulations, 29 CFR § 2510.3-21, “Definition of Fiduciary.” https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-29/subtitle-B/chapter-XXV/subchapter-B/part-2510/section-2510.3-21

                            7. Follow on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982

                            Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8?si=Qxj-H7HiRdGmbNlW8uuV9g

                            Subscribe for Email Updates: https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast

                            Meet with Pat & Marcus: https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com

                            Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                            35 min
                          7. Should You Chase the Next Big IPO?

                            Using SpaceX to understand IPO access, pricing, and expected returns.

                            SpaceX may be a high-profile company, and it is rare for a private company to go public at a valuation that would place it among the largest companies in the market.

                            In Episode 35 of The Decision Dividend, we use SpaceX to understand IPO access, pricing, and expected returns. We look at what history says about IPO returns and why the first-day “pop” is not always available to ordinary investors.

                            You’ll learn:

                            How the outside view changes the IPO question by asking who is selling, who is getting access, and what index funds may be forced to buy later.

                            What the historical evidence says about IPO pops, long-run returns, and low-float offerings.

                            Why the irony of diversified investing is that you may already have exposure to the economic benefits of companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic without chasing direct access.

                             

                            Chapters:

                            00:00 Should You Chase the Next Big IPO?

                            Using SpaceX to understand IPO access, pricing, and expected returns.

                            00:46 Decision vs. Outcome (1)

                            How base rates and the outside view can help investors evaluate SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the next big IPO.

                            03:04 SpaceX at a Mega-Cap Valuation

                            Why a remarkable business can still require extraordinary growth to justify an extraordinary price.

                            05:03 Limited Float, Lockups, and Hype (2, 3)

                            How limited supply, insider lockups, and investor excitement can shape the early IPO experience.

                            07:53 IPO Waves and Market Timing (4, 5)

                            Why companies may choose to go public when public-market prices, sentiment, and funding conditions are favorable.

                            09:42 How IPO Pricing Works (5, 6)

                            The role of underwriters, roadshows, allocations, and the tension between what companies want and what investors want.

                            13:20 Who Captures the First-Day Pop? (2, 3, 5)

                            Why the IPO “pop” is often measured from the offer price, not the price ordinary investors may actually pay.

                            22:15 What the IPO Evidence Shows (2, 3, 5)

                            What decades of research suggest about first-day returns, longer-term returns, low-float offerings, and IPO characteristics.

                            28:30 How Diversified Investors Get Exposure (7)

                            Why investors may already benefit through indirect ownership and public companies that finance, supply, and partner with the next big thing.

                            40:45 The Other Side of the Trade (1)

                            Why employees, early investors, and concentrated shareholders may be trying to reduce risk at the same time public investors want to add it.

                             

                            Sources:

                            1. Greenspring Advisors, “5 Tools for Better Decisions | The Decision Dividend #34.”
                              2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WEK-1gMFd0
                            2. Jay R. Ritter, “IPO Data,” University of Florida.
                              3. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/ipo-data/
                            3. Dimensional, “What to Know About an IPO.”
                              4. https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/what-to-know-about-an-ipo
                            4. Luboš Pástor and Pietro Veronesi, “Stock Prices and IPO Waves,” NBER.
                              5. https://www.nber.org/papers/w9858
                            5. Jay R. Ritter and Ivo Welch, “A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations,” NBER.
                              6. https://www.nber.org/papers/w8805
                            6. Wall Street Journal, “SpaceX Is Aiming for Civilization on Mars. Its IPO Couldn’t Be More Old School.”
                              7. https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/spacex-ipo-process-preparation-69f97465
                            7. Dimensional, “Hiding in Plain Sight: Private Asset Exposure Through Public Equities.”
                              8. https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/insights/hiding-in-plain-sight-private-asset-exposure-through-public-equities

                              Follow on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/greenstream/id1795467982

                              Follow on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/26NYX6WD7godcJAYVE0Yk8?si=Qxj-H7HiRdGmbNlW8uuV9g

                              Subscribe for Email Updates: https://greenspringadvisors.com/greenstream-podcast

                              Meet with Pat & Marcus: https://outlook.office365.com/book/MarcusCalendaratGreenspringAdvisors@Greenspringos33.onmicrosoft.com

                              Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                              References to SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and IPOs are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, participate in any IPO, or invest in any private company. IPOs and private company investments involve unique risks, including limited information, valuation uncertainty, liquidity constraints, allocation limitations, volatility, and the potential loss of principal. Historical IPO data and examples may not be indicative of future results.

                              42 min
                            8. 5 Tools for Better Decisions

                              Practical frameworks for separating process from outcome. A good outcome can make a bad decision look smart. A bad outcome can make a good decision look foolish.

                              In Episode 34 of The Decision Dividend, we look at how to separate the quality of your decision from the luck of the result. To do that, we walk through five practical tools for making better decisions before, during, and after uncertainty shows up.

                              You’ll learn:

                              • How a decision memo can help you judge your process without being fooled by the outcome
                              • Why scorecards and base rates can make tradeoffs clearer and forecasts more realistic
                              • How if-then rules and defaults can help turn better decisions into repeatable behavior

                                •  

                                Chapters

                                00:00 5 Tools for Better Decisions

                                How to separate the quality of a decision from the luck of the result.

                                01:11 Trust the Evidence

                                Why better decisions start with process, data, science, and evidence.

                                02:00 When a Decision Needs a Framework

                                How to decide when a choice deserves structure and when an incremental step is enough.

                                03:48 Why Gut Instinct Can Mislead Investors

                                How the same instincts that helped humans avoid danger can hurt decision-making under uncertainty.

                                05:59 The Five Decision Tools

                                Decision memos, scorecards, base rates, if-then rules, and defaults.

                                06:48 Decision Memos and Journals (1)

                                Why writing down your reasoning in advance can help you audit decisions later.

                                09:12 Scorecards and Tradeoffs (2)

                                How a one-page scorecard can make tradeoffs clearer when there is no single right answer.

                                12:16 Base Rates (3, 8)

                                Why the first question should be what usually happens in similar situations.

                                15:35 If-Then Rules and Guardrails (4)

                                How pre-deciding your trigger and response can reduce improvisation under stress.

                                18:36 Defaults and Precommitment (5, 6, 7)

                                Why making a decision once can be more effective than re-deciding every month.

                                21:48 Decision vs. Outcome (1)

                                Why a bad decision can be rewarded by luck and a good decision can still disappoint.

                                26:33 The Decision 2x2 (1)

                                A practical way to separate good and bad decisions from good and bad outcomes.

                                30:02 When Several Things Matter (2)

                                How weighing multiple criteria can help compare financial and life decisions.

                                34:56 The Outside View (3, 10)

                                Why personal experience can distort expectations for returns, risk, and future outcomes.

                                40:34 Learning from Wins and Losses (1,9)

                                Why early success can create overconfidence, and why bad outcomes can sometimes teach useful lessons.

                                42:49 Win or Learn

                                How better decision-making compounds when you review the process, not just the result.

                                 

                                Sources

                                1. Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey, “Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1988.
                                  2. https://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/brenner/mar7588/Papers/baron-hershey-jpsp1988.pdf
                                2. Samuel D. Bond, Kurt A. Carlson, and Ralph L. Keeney, “Generating Objectives: Can Decision Makers Articulate What They Want?,” Management Science, 2008.
                                  3. https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0754
                                3. Roger Buehler, Dale Griffin, and Michael Ross, “Exploring the ‘Planning Fallacy’: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1994.
                                  4. https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366%2C_1994.pdf
                                4. Peter M. Gollwitzer and Paschal Sheeran, “Implementation Intentions and Goal Achievement: A Meta-Analysis of Effects and Processes,” Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 2006.
                                  5. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/37367696_Implementation_Intentions_and_Goal_Achievement_A_Meta-Analysis_of_Effects_and_Processes
                                5. Brigitte C. Madrian and Dennis F. Shea, “The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior,” NBER Working Paper, 2000.
                                  6. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7682/w7682.pdf
                                6. Richard H. Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi, “Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving,” Journal of Political Economy, 2004.
                                  7. https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/fac/accounting/smartjpe226.pdf
                                7. Sheena S. Iyengar, Gur Huberman, and Wei Jiang, “How Much Choice Is Too Much? Contributions to 401(k) Retirement Plans,” Pension Research Council Working Paper, 2003.
                                  8. https://pensionresearchcouncil.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/papers-2018/how-much-choice-is-too-much-contributions-to-401k-retirement-plans/
                                8. Jay R. Ritter, “The Long-Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings,” Journal of Finance, 1991.
                                  9. https://site.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/files/The-Long-Run-Performance-of-Initial-Public-Offerings-1991-03.pdf
                                9. Hendrik Bessembinder, “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?,” Journal of Financial Economics, 2018.
                                  10. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447
                                10. UBS, “Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026.”
                                  11. https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/articles/global-investment-returns-yearbook-2026.html

                                   

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                                  Information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. It is not intended as the primary basis for financial planning or investment decisions and should not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

                                  45 min

                                About The Decision Dividend

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                                A podcast specifically focused on helping every person live their ideal life by helping them make better decisions around their finances, relationships, and life.