This week’s Alpha Trader features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Jim Iurio - director at TJM Institutional Services and a CNBC contributor - making a return appearance on the podcast.
It’s time to start measuring the dollar (USDOLLAR) differently, says Iurio, noting most forms of the dollar index more or less gauge the greenback vs. other flawed currencies like the yen or euro. Nobody would be talking about dollar strength, he says, if the dollar index had a significant weighting in something like Bitcoin (BTC-USD).
And of bitcoin - which tumbled nearly 20% in minutes over the weekend on some pretty thin news - Iurio is a fan, but suspects we could see a 50% drop at some point when the U.S. government decides it wants to try and squelch the dollar’s competition.
Turning to interest rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is down about 20 basis points in April despite surging equity markets, and way stronger than expected prints for non-farm payrolls, ISM, retail sales, and CPI. What gives? Iurio notes that at 1.75% or so, U.S. long-end yields are a relatively attractive investment given how much negative-yielding developed-world sovereign debt is out there. He also reminds that bond bears - having made a few dollars - were prudently trimming bets just in case the Fed decided to step in and announce yield curve control.
There’s plenty more including a discussion of lumber’s roaring bull market, why identifying a bubble doesn’t make you any money, and why the recent drop in volatility makes it a good time to buy option protection.
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